ScoreProb
4. liga - Divizie E Czechia Group E - 15 2026

Holešov vs Strání

Holešov Home · Elo 1,438
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Strání Away · Elo 1,541
Stadion Strelnice, Holesov Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Strání win
Holešov win
36.3%
Draw
26.2%
Strání winPick
37.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.2%
No38.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.3%
Under 2.533.7%

How much we know

Holešov history46 matches
Strání history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Strání are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Strání are rated 103 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,541 against 1,438. On rating alone Strání would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Strání score more

    1.48 goals a game over 46 matches for Holešov, against 1.83 over 54 for Strání.

  • Strání concede fewer

    Holešov concede 1.89 a game, Strání 1.30.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    61% of Holešov matches, against 63% for Strání. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Holešov
Strání
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1438.0
ELO
1540.9
46
ELO · Matches
54
1438.0
Current Team ELO
1540.9
1540.9
Current Opponent ELO
1438.0
-103.0
Current ELO Difference
103.0
0.36
Expected score
0.64
46
History Matches
54
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.03
46.22
Overperformance
52.20
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
2.00
Goals for per game
2.40
1.80
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.90
2.10
Goals for per game
2.30
1.40
Goals against per game
1.30
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.22
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.15
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.48
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
54
1.07
PPG
1.61
28.3%
Win rate
48.1%
21.7%
Draw rate
16.7%
50.0%
Loss rate
35.2%
91.3%
Over 1.5 rate
79.6%
60.9%
Over 2.5 rate
63.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.10
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
29
1.27
PPG
1.45
34.6%
Win rate
41.4%
23.1%
Draw rate
20.7%
42.3%
Loss rate
37.9%
96.2%
Over 1.5 rate
86.2%
65.4%
Over 2.5 rate
62.1%
53.8%
Over 3.5 rate
48.3%
2.23
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.36
26
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.48
Goals for per game
1.83
78.3%
Scoring rate
85.2%
60.9%
BTTS rate
59.3%
1.65
Goals for per game
1.93
84.6%
Scoring rate
79.3%
65.4%
BTTS rate
58.6%
2.67
Goals for per game
2.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
100.0%
46
History Matches
54
1.48
Goals Mean
1.83
1.19
Goals Std
1.49
78.3%
Scored 1+ rate
85.2%
39.1%
Scored 2+ rate
46.3%
23.9%
Scored 3+ rate
29.6%
1.65
Venue Goals Mean
1.93
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.89
Goals against per game
1.30
80.4%
Conceding rate
72.2%
1.73
Goals against per game
1.38
76.9%
Conceding rate
75.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
46
History Matches
54
1.89
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.45
Conceded Std
1.16
52.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.2%
37.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.8%
1.73
Venue Conceded Mean
1.38
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
19.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
14.8%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
20.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
19.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
14.8%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
20.7%
19.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
54
0.94
Result entropy
0.93
2.11
Goal Difference Std
2.10
5.75
Stability score
7.33
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
54
17
Lead Matches
20
76.5%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.85
14
Trailing Matches
15
14.3%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.72
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.02
1.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.94
Rest days
75.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
26
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.27
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
19
Long Rest History Matches
23
0.84
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.70
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.33
PPG
2.33
66.7%
Win rate
66.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.33
Current Competition PPG
2.33
1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.33
5
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.61
Portability PPG Std
0.75
1.48
Portability PPG Range
2.00
44.85
Portability Score
39.85
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-103.0
PPG-0.55
GF-0.36
GA0.60
PPG0.00
PPG-0.18
PPG0.00
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate6.9%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-8
Goals Mean-0.36
Goals Std-0.29
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean-0.28
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.22
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean0.60
Conceded Std0.28
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate17.0%
Conceded 3+ rate22.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.35
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.01
History Matches-8
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.01
Stability score-1.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.66
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.57
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.33
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.14
Portability PPG Range-0.52
Portability Score5.00
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.85
Current Team ELO-103.0
Current Opponent ELO103.0
Current ELO Difference-205.9
Expected score-0.29
History Matches-8
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-5.98
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Holešov

D
Bzenec2–2Holešov31 Oct · away
Pick: Holešov 40% · missed
W
Holešov2–1Tatran Všechovice24 Oct · home
Pick: Tatran Všechovice 47% · missed
L
Slavičín2–0Holešov18 Oct · away
Pick: Holešov 41% · missed
L
Sokol Lanžhot2–0Holešov4 Oct · away
Pick: Sokol Lanžhot 41% · hit
D
Brumov3–3Holešov30 Aug · away
Pick: Holešov 47% · missed

Strání

W
Strání9–1Brumov1 Nov · home
Pick: Strání 63% · hit
W
Baťov0–6Strání23 Oct · away
Pick: Strání 53% · hit
L
Strání0–2Prostejov B17 Oct · home
Pick: Strání 73% · missed
L
Strání1–3Šternberk4 Oct · home
Pick: Strání 72% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Holešov and Strání meet in 4. liga - Divizie E on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Strelnice, Holesov. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Holešov win 36.3%, draw 26.2%, Strání win 37.5%. The pick is Strání win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.3%. Both teams to score: 61.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.