ScoreProb
Non League Premier - Southern Central England Round 17 2026

Bromsgrove Sporting vs Leiston

Bromsgrove Sporting Home · Elo 1,477
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Leiston Away · Elo 1,555
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bromsgrove Sporting win
Bromsgrove Sporting winPick
46.7%
Draw
24.0%
Leiston win
29.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.7%
No41.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.4%
Under 2.541.6%

How much we know

Bromsgrove Sporting history67 matches
Leiston history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Bromsgrove Sporting are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Leiston are rated 79 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,555 against 1,477. On rating alone Leiston would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.43 goals a game over 67 matches for Bromsgrove Sporting, against 1.56 over 70 for Leiston.

  • Leiston concede fewer

    Bromsgrove Sporting concede 1.69 a game, Leiston 1.46.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    67% of Bromsgrove Sporting matches, against 61% for Leiston. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bromsgrove Sporting
Leiston
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1476.8
ELO
1555.5
67
ELO · Matches
70
1476.8
Current Team ELO
1555.5
1555.5
Current Opponent ELO
1476.8
-78.69
Current ELO Difference
78.69
0.39
Expected score
0.61
67
History Matches
70
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.04
48.70
Overperformance
53.09
0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.60
1.60
Goals for per game
2.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.90
1.60
Goals for per game
2.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.30
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.69
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
70
1.18
PPG
1.46
34.3%
Win rate
38.6%
14.9%
Draw rate
30.0%
50.7%
Loss rate
31.4%
88.1%
Over 1.5 rate
84.3%
67.2%
Over 2.5 rate
61.4%
28.4%
Over 3.5 rate
37.1%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
35
1.30
PPG
1.57
39.4%
Win rate
42.9%
12.1%
Draw rate
28.6%
48.5%
Loss rate
28.6%
87.9%
Over 1.5 rate
88.6%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
2.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
33
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.43
Goals for per game
1.56
74.6%
Scoring rate
82.9%
56.7%
BTTS rate
67.1%
1.55
Goals for per game
1.49
78.8%
Scoring rate
85.7%
54.5%
BTTS rate
74.3%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.75
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
67
History Matches
70
1.43
Goals Mean
1.56
1.16
Goals Std
1.08
74.6%
Scored 1+ rate
82.9%
44.8%
Scored 2+ rate
48.6%
19.4%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
1.55
Venue Goals Mean
1.49
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.69
Goals against per game
1.46
82.1%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.55
Goals against per game
1.40
75.8%
Conceding rate
82.9%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
67
History Matches
70
1.69
Conceded Mean
1.46
1.25
Conceded Std
1.09
50.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.9%
25.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.6%
1.55
Venue Conceded Mean
1.40
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
25.4%
Failed-to-score rate
17.1%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
17.1%
21.2%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
25.4%
Failed-to-score rate
17.1%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
17.1%
21.2%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
70
0.91
Result entropy
0.99
1.91
Goal Difference Std
1.56
9.42
Stability score
0.56
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
70
26
Lead Matches
25
65.4%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.68
Lead Points Retention
0.85
24
Trailing Matches
21
25.0%
Non-loss rate
23.8%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.96
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
54
Normal Rest History Matches
56
1.09
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.38
10
Long Rest History Matches
9
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.67
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.25
PPG
1.25
75.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.09
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.25
Current Competition PPG
1.25
0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.25
7
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.55
Portability PPG Std
0.32
1.20
Portability PPG Range
0.81
47.72
Portability Score
60.99
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-78.69
PPG-0.28
GF-0.12
GA0.23
PPG1.00
PPG-0.27
PPG0.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate8.2%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate7.1%
Failed-to-score rate6.9%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.12
Goals Std0.08
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.02
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.23
Conceded Std0.16
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate7.9%
Conceded 3+ rate6.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.15
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.23
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std0.35
Stability score8.85
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.68
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.15
Lead Points Retention-0.17
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate1.2%
Trailing Win Rate12.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.23
Portability PPG Range0.39
Portability Score-13.27
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.75
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.28
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.33
Current Team ELO-78.69
Current Opponent ELO78.69
Current ELO Difference-157.4
Expected score-0.22
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.39
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bromsgrove Sporting

W
Leighton Town1–5Bromsgrove Sporting31 Oct · away
Pick: Bromsgrove Sporting 41% · hit
D
Bromsgrove Sporting2–2Stratford Town27 Oct · home
Pick: Bromsgrove Sporting 50% · missed
W
Anstey Nomads0–1Bromsgrove Sporting24 Oct · away
Pick: Anstey Nomads 46% · missed
D
Bromsgrove Sporting1–1Banbury United17 Oct · home
Pick: Bromsgrove Sporting 48% · missed
W
Bromsgrove Sporting2–1Kettering Town13 Oct · home
Pick: Bromsgrove Sporting 41% · hit

Leiston

L
Leiston1–3Alvechurch31 Oct · home
Pick: Alvechurch 39% · hit
W
Peterborough Sports2–5Leiston27 Oct · away
Pick: Leiston 46% · hit
L
Kettering Town4–0Leiston20 Oct · away
Pick: Kettering Town 45% · hit
L
Leiston0–3Guiseley AFC17 Oct · home
Pick: Guiseley AFC 40% · hit
L
Bury Town4–3Leiston31 Aug · away
Pick: Bury Town 52% · hit

About this match

Bromsgrove Sporting and Leiston meet in Non League Premier - Southern Central on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Bromsgrove Sporting win 46.7%, draw 24.0%, Leiston win 29.3%. The pick is Bromsgrove Sporting win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.4%. Both teams to score: 58.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.