ScoreProb
Non League Premier - Southern Central England Round 17 2026

Halesowen Town vs Anstey Nomads

Halesowen Town Home · Elo 1,550
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Anstey Nomads Away · Elo 1,676
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Anstey Nomads win
Halesowen Town win
34.6%
Draw
26.4%
Anstey Nomads winPick
38.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.1%
No49.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.2%
Under 2.543.8%

How much we know

Halesowen Town history73 matches
Anstey Nomads history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.9%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Anstey Nomads are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Anstey Nomads are rated 126 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,676 against 1,550. On rating alone Anstey Nomads would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Anstey Nomads score more

    1.77 goals a game over 73 matches for Halesowen Town, against 1.97 over 59 for Anstey Nomads.

  • Anstey Nomads concede fewer

    Halesowen Town concede 1.27 a game, Anstey Nomads 0.81.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    59% of Halesowen Town matches, against 53% for Anstey Nomads. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Halesowen Town
Anstey Nomads
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1550.1
ELO
1675.7
73
ELO · Matches
59
1550.1
Current Team ELO
1675.7
1675.7
Current Opponent ELO
1550.1
-125.6
Current ELO Difference
125.6
0.33
Expected score
0.67
73
History Matches
59
0.03
Residual Mean
0.15
52.66
Overperformance
61.57
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
2.60
1.30
Goals for per game
2.30
1.20
Goals against per game
0.50
30.0%
Win rate
80.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.55
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.50
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
1.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.25
Overall performance9 signals
90
73
Matches
59
1.58
PPG
2.22
42.5%
Win rate
67.8%
30.1%
Draw rate
18.6%
27.4%
Loss rate
13.6%
78.1%
Over 1.5 rate
81.4%
58.9%
Over 2.5 rate
52.5%
39.7%
Over 3.5 rate
32.2%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
27
1.81
PPG
2.04
51.4%
Win rate
59.3%
27.0%
Draw rate
25.9%
21.6%
Loss rate
14.8%
83.8%
Over 1.5 rate
85.2%
67.6%
Over 2.5 rate
59.3%
51.4%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.10
37
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.77
Goals for per game
1.97
78.1%
Scoring rate
83.1%
54.8%
BTTS rate
45.8%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.96
83.8%
Scoring rate
81.5%
59.5%
BTTS rate
55.6%
0.67
Goals for per game
1.50
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
73
History Matches
59
1.77
Goals Mean
1.97
1.48
Goals Std
1.43
78.1%
Scored 1+ rate
83.1%
50.7%
Scored 2+ rate
57.6%
28.8%
Scored 3+ rate
35.6%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.96
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.27
Goals against per game
0.81
69.9%
Conceding rate
59.3%
1.32
Goals against per game
1.00
70.3%
Conceding rate
70.4%
0.33
Goals against per game
0.75
33.3%
Conceding rate
75.0%
73
History Matches
59
1.27
Conceded Mean
0.81
1.17
Conceded Std
0.89
35.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
15.3%
16.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.4%
1.32
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.1%
Clean-sheet rate
40.7%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
16.9%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
16.2%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
30.1%
Clean-sheet rate
40.7%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
16.9%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
16.2%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
30.1%
Clean-sheet rate
40.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
73
History Matches
59
0.98
Result entropy
0.77
1.85
Goal Difference Std
1.91
1.70
Stability score
22.85
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
73
Eligible Matches
55
23
Lead Matches
27
69.6%
Lead Win Rate
92.6%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.95
23
Trailing Matches
8
43.5%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
21.7%
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
73
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.35
1.04
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.98
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.40
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
59
Normal Rest History Matches
44
1.61
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.34
8
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.58
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
4
2.00
PPG
2.00
66.7%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.83
3
Current Competition Matches
4
2.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.75
8
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.21
1.33
Portability PPG Range
0.57
51.71
Portability Score
70.85
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
73
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-125.6
PPG-0.64
GF-0.20
GA0.46
PPG0.00
PPG-0.23
PPG-0.60
PPG-1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate5.0%
History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate0.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches14
Goals Mean-0.20
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean0.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.45
History Matches14
Conceded Mean0.46
Conceded Std0.28
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate20.4%
Conceded 3+ rate13.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.32
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.67
History Matches14
Result entropy0.21
Goal Difference Std-0.06
Stability score-21.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.67
Eligible Matches18
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.23
Lead Points Retention-0.20
Trailing Matches15
Non-loss rate6.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches18
First Half Goals For Mean-0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.42
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.26
Portability PPG Range0.76
Portability Score-19.14
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.60
Normal Rest History Matches15
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.73
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Current Team ELO-125.6
Current Opponent ELO125.6
Current ELO Difference-251.1
Expected score-0.35
History Matches14
Residual Mean-0.12
Overperformance-8.91
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.25

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Halesowen Town

W
Halesowen Town3–2Leamington27 Oct · home
Pick: Halesowen Town 62% · hit
W
Evesham United0–4Halesowen Town24 Oct · away
Pick: Halesowen Town 44% · hit
L
Racing Club Warwick5–1Halesowen Town20 Oct · away
Pick: Halesowen Town 44% · missed
W
Halesowen Town2–1Hitchin Town17 Oct · home
Pick: Halesowen Town 59% · hit
D
Halesowen Town1–1Alvechurch13 Oct · home
Pick: Alvechurch 39% · missed

Anstey Nomads

L
Anstey Nomads1–2Real Bedford3 Nov · home
Pick: Real Bedford 42% · hit
W
Anstey Nomads4–1Bishop's Stortford31 Oct · home
Pick: Anstey Nomads 70% · hit
D
Alvechurch2–2Anstey Nomads27 Oct · away
Pick: Alvechurch 46% · missed
L
Anstey Nomads0–1Bromsgrove Sporting24 Oct · home
Pick: Anstey Nomads 46% · missed
D
Macclesfield1–1Anstey Nomads17 Oct · away
Pick: Macclesfield 57% · missed

About this match

Halesowen Town and Anstey Nomads meet in Non League Premier - Southern Central on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Halesowen Town win 34.6%, draw 26.4%, Anstey Nomads win 38.9%. The pick is Anstey Nomads win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.2%. Both teams to score: 50.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.