ScoreProb
Non League Premier - Southern Central England Round 17 2026

Peterborough Sports vs Stamford

Peterborough Sports Home · Elo 1,404
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Stamford Away · Elo 1,463
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Peterborough Sports win
Peterborough Sports winPick
46.8%
Draw
23.5%
Stamford win
29.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.0%
No48.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.8%
Under 2.550.2%

How much we know

Peterborough Sports history78 matches
Stamford history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Peterborough Sports are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Stamford are rated 59 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,463 against 1,404. On rating alone Stamford would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Peterborough Sports score more

    1.13 goals a game over 78 matches for Peterborough Sports, against 0.96 over 70 for Stamford.

  • Stamford concede fewer

    Peterborough Sports concede 1.88 a game, Stamford 1.43.

  • Peterborough Sports games more often go over 2.5 goals

    54% of Peterborough Sports matches, against 37% for Stamford. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Peterborough Sports
Stamford
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1404.1
ELO
1462.7
78
ELO · Matches
70
1404.1
Current Team ELO
1462.7
1462.7
Current Opponent ELO
1404.1
-58.57
Current ELO Difference
58.57
0.42
Expected score
0.58
78
History Matches
70
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.03
45.67
Overperformance
47.64
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
0.20
0.40
Goals for per game
0.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.40
PPG
1.10
0.80
Goals for per game
1.00
2.30
Goals against per game
0.90
0.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.34
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
2.05
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.29
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.92
Overall performance9 signals
90
78
Matches
70
1.01
PPG
1.20
26.9%
Win rate
32.9%
20.5%
Draw rate
21.4%
52.6%
Loss rate
45.7%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
72.9%
53.8%
Over 2.5 rate
37.1%
34.6%
Over 3.5 rate
24.3%
2.21
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
Venue performance10 signals
100
41
Matches
37
1.20
PPG
0.86
31.7%
Win rate
24.3%
24.4%
Draw rate
13.5%
43.9%
Loss rate
62.2%
75.6%
Over 1.5 rate
73.0%
46.3%
Over 2.5 rate
37.8%
22.0%
Over 3.5 rate
24.3%
2.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
41
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.13
Goals for per game
0.96
62.8%
Scoring rate
62.9%
50.0%
BTTS rate
35.7%
1.12
Goals for per game
0.76
61.0%
Scoring rate
51.4%
46.3%
BTTS rate
32.4%
0.50
Goals for per game
0.25
50.0%
Scoring rate
25.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
78
History Matches
70
1.13
Goals Mean
0.96
1.18
Goals Std
0.95
62.8%
Scored 1+ rate
62.9%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
24.3%
10.3%
Scored 3+ rate
7.1%
1.12
Venue Goals Mean
0.76
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.88
Goals against per game
1.43
80.8%
Conceding rate
68.6%
1.51
Goals against per game
1.68
78.0%
Conceding rate
78.4%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.50
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
78
History Matches
70
1.88
Conceded Mean
1.43
1.72
Conceded Std
1.34
47.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.9%
28.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
1.51
Venue Conceded Mean
1.68
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
31.4%
37.2%
Failed-to-score rate
37.1%
22.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.6%
39.0%
Failed-to-score rate
48.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
31.4%
37.2%
Failed-to-score rate
37.1%
22.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.6%
39.0%
Failed-to-score rate
48.6%
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
31.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
78
History Matches
70
0.93
Result entropy
0.96
2.21
Goal Difference Std
1.89
7.49
Stability score
4.09
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
77
Eligible Matches
69
16
Lead Matches
19
62.5%
Lead Win Rate
73.7%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.81
30
Trailing Matches
23
13.3%
Non-loss rate
8.7%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
77
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.42
0.99
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.56
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.91
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
66
Normal Rest History Matches
55
1.15
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.22
8
Long Rest History Matches
11
0.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.50
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.43
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.50
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.25
7
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.85
1.25
Portability PPG Range
2.25
51.42
Portability Score
37.09
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
78
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-58.57
PPG-0.19
GF0.17
GA0.46
PPG0.50
PPG0.33
PPG0.20
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate0.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches8
Goals Mean0.17
Goals Std0.23
Scored 1+ rate0.00
Scored 2+ rate9.0%
Scored 3+ rate3.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.37
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.47
History Matches8
Conceded Mean0.46
Conceded Std0.39
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Conceded 2+ rate4.6%
Conceded 3+ rate8.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.16
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.01
History Matches8
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.33
Stability score3.40
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.37
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate4.6%
Trailing Win Rate6.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean0.44
Second Half Goals For Mean0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.38
Portability PPG Range-1.00
Portability Score14.33
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.63
Current Team ELO-58.57
Current Opponent ELO58.57
Current ELO Difference-117.1
Expected score-0.17
History Matches8
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.97
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Peterborough Sports

W
Leamington2–4Peterborough Sports31 Oct · away
Pick: Leamington 39% · missed
L
Peterborough Sports2–5Leiston27 Oct · home
Pick: Leiston 46% · hit
W
Peterborough Sports4–2Banbury United13 Oct · home
Pick: Peterborough Sports 38% · hit
D
Needham Market3–3Peterborough Sports31 Aug · away
Pick: Needham Market 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Stamford

W
Bishop's Stortford0–1Stamford27 Oct · away
Pick: Bishop's Stortford 42% · missed
L
Hitchin Town3–0Stamford20 Oct · away
Pick: Hitchin Town 51% · hit
L
Stamford0–4Real Bedford17 Oct · home
Pick: Real Bedford 59% · hit
D
Stamford0–0Stratford Town13 Oct · home
Pick: Stamford 49% · missed
L
Kettering Town5–0Stamford31 Aug · away
Pick: Kettering Town 61% · hit

About this match

Peterborough Sports and Stamford meet in Non League Premier - Southern Central on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Peterborough Sports win 46.8%, draw 23.5%, Stamford win 29.7%. The pick is Peterborough Sports win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.8%. Both teams to score: 52.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.