ScoreProb
K League 1 South Korea Relegation Group - 35 2026

Bucheon FC 1995 vs Pohang Steelers

Bucheon FC 1995 Home · Elo 1,542
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Pohang Steelers Away · Elo 1,530
Bucheon Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bucheon FC 1995 win
Bucheon FC 1995 winPick
42.7%
Draw
28.6%
Pohang Steelers win
28.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.6%
No50.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.8%
Under 2.551.2%

How much we know

Bucheon FC 1995 history75 matches
Pohang Steelers history75 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 22 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 07:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Bucheon FC 1995 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,542 against 1,530. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Bucheon FC 1995 score more

    1.36 goals a game over 75 matches for Bucheon FC 1995, against 1.07 over 75 for Pohang Steelers.

  • Defences are close

    Bucheon FC 1995 concede 1.15 a game, Pohang Steelers 1.23.

  • Bucheon FC 1995 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    49% of Bucheon FC 1995 matches, against 37% for Pohang Steelers. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bucheon FC 1995
Pohang Steelers
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1542.2
ELO
1529.6
75
ELO · Matches
75
1542.2
Current Team ELO
1529.6
1529.6
Current Opponent ELO
1542.2
12.55
Current ELO Difference
-12.55
0.52
Expected score
0.48
75
History Matches
75
0.03
Residual Mean
0.02
52.37
Overperformance
51.28
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.80
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
0.60
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.20
1.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.74
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.91
Overall performance9 signals
90
75
Matches
75
1.57
PPG
1.43
42.7%
Win rate
41.3%
29.3%
Draw rate
18.7%
28.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
65.3%
Over 1.5 rate
65.3%
49.3%
Over 2.5 rate
37.3%
30.7%
Over 3.5 rate
18.7%
1.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
39
1.64
PPG
1.38
43.6%
Win rate
41.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
15.4%
23.1%
Loss rate
43.6%
69.2%
Over 1.5 rate
71.8%
46.2%
Over 2.5 rate
43.6%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
20.5%
1.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
39
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.36
Goals for per game
1.07
73.3%
Scoring rate
70.7%
49.3%
BTTS rate
44.0%
1.46
Goals for per game
1.18
76.9%
Scoring rate
76.9%
51.3%
BTTS rate
51.3%
1.08
Goals for per game
0.96
60.0%
Scoring rate
64.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
36.0%
75
History Matches
75
1.36
Goals Mean
1.07
1.12
Goals Std
0.90
73.3%
Scored 1+ rate
70.7%
42.7%
Scored 2+ rate
28.0%
17.3%
Scored 3+ rate
8.0%
1.46
Venue Goals Mean
1.18
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.15
Goals against per game
1.23
62.7%
Conceding rate
68.0%
1.05
Goals against per game
1.36
59.0%
Conceding rate
74.4%
1.12
Goals against per game
1.16
64.0%
Conceding rate
68.0%
75
History Matches
75
1.15
Conceded Mean
1.23
1.13
Conceded Std
1.21
34.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
14.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.3%
1.05
Venue Conceded Mean
1.36
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
37.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
29.3%
41.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
37.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
29.3%
41.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
37.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
75
History Matches
75
0.98
Result entropy
0.95
1.42
Goal Difference Std
1.55
1.73
Stability score
4.88
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
75
Eligible Matches
75
19
Lead Matches
20
68.4%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.82
17
Trailing Matches
23
23.5%
Non-loss rate
26.1%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
8.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
75
Halftime Coverage Matches
75
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.87
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.88
Rest days
74.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
10
Short Rest History Matches
8
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
47
Normal Rest History Matches
47
1.51
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.57
17
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.32
Competition & season17 signals
170
25
Matches
25
1.20
PPG
1.36
28.0%
Win rate
40.0%
36.0%
Draw rate
16.0%
36.0%
Loss rate
44.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
64.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
32.0%
24.0%
Over 3.5 rate
12.0%
1.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
25
Current Competition Matches
25
1.20
Current Competition PPG
1.36
-0.04
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.20
5
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.23
Portability PPG Std
0.16
0.50
Portability PPG Range
0.39
68.66
Portability Score
75.33
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
75
Clean History Matches
75
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO12.55
PPG0.15
GF0.29
GA-0.08
PPG-0.16
PPG0.26
PPG-0.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate15.4%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.29
Goals Std0.22
Scored 1+ rate2.7%
Scored 2+ rate14.7%
Scored 3+ rate9.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.28
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.11
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.08
Conceded Std-0.08
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Conceded 2+ rate1.3%
Conceded 3+ rate1.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.27
History Matches0
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.13
Stability score-3.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.16
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.16
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.16
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range0.11
Portability Score-6.67
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.06
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.39
Current Team ELO12.55
Current Opponent ELO-12.55
Current ELO Difference25.11
Expected score0.04
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance1.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bucheon FC 1995

L
FC Anyang2–1Bucheon FC 19951 Nov · away
Pick: Bucheon FC 1995 39% · missed
L
Bucheon FC 19950–3Gwangju FC24 Oct · home
Pick: Bucheon FC 1995 59% · missed
L
Ulsan Hyundai FC2–1Bucheon FC 199517 Oct · away
Pick: Ulsan Hyundai FC 42% · hit
D
Bucheon FC 19951–1FC Anyang29 Aug · home
Pick: Bucheon FC 1995 50% · missed
L
FC Seoul1–0Bucheon FC 199525 Aug · away
Pick: FC Seoul 56% · hit

Pohang Steelers

D
Pohang Steelers1–1Jeju United FC1 Nov · home
Pick: Pohang Steelers 43% · missed
L
Kashima3–0Pohang Steelers28 Oct · away
Pick: Kashima 42% · hit
D
Ulsan Hyundai FC2–2Pohang Steelers24 Oct · away
Pick: Ulsan Hyundai FC 46% · missed
D
Pohang Steelers0–0FC Anyang18 Oct · home
Pick: Pohang Steelers 45% · missed
L
Pohang Steelers0–2Johor Darul Takzim FC13 Oct · home
Pick: Johor Darul Takzim FC 47% · hit

About this match

Bucheon FC 1995 and Pohang Steelers meet in K League 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 07:30 UTC. The match is played at Bucheon Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Bucheon FC 1995 win 42.7%, draw 28.6%, Pohang Steelers win 28.7%. The pick is Bucheon FC 1995 win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.8%. Both teams to score: 49.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.