ScoreProb
K League 1 South Korea Championship Group - 35 2026

Daejeon Citizen vs Incheon United

Daejeon Citizen Home · Elo 1,548
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Incheon United Away · Elo 1,536
Daejeon World Cup Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Daejeon Citizen win
Daejeon Citizen winPick
38.1%
Draw
30.1%
Incheon United win
31.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.3%
No47.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.6%
Under 2.545.4%

How much we know

Daejeon Citizen history70 matches
Incheon United history69 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.1%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Daejeon Citizen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,548 against 1,536. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.49 goals a game over 70 matches for Daejeon Citizen, against 1.46 over 69 for Incheon United.

  • Incheon United concede fewer

    Daejeon Citizen concede 1.23 a game, Incheon United 0.96.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of Daejeon Citizen matches, against 46% for Incheon United. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Daejeon Citizen
Incheon United
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1547.6
ELO
1536.3
70
ELO · Matches
69
1547.6
Current Team ELO
1536.3
1536.3
Current Opponent ELO
1547.6
11.23
Current ELO Difference
-11.23
0.52
Expected score
0.48
70
History Matches
69
0.03
Residual Mean
0.02
52.13
Overperformance
51.80
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.20
2.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.50
1.80
Goals for per game
1.30
1.40
Goals against per game
0.90
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.27
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
70
Matches
69
1.54
PPG
1.67
41.4%
Win rate
47.8%
30.0%
Draw rate
23.2%
28.6%
Loss rate
29.0%
77.1%
Over 1.5 rate
68.1%
51.4%
Over 2.5 rate
46.4%
32.9%
Over 3.5 rate
17.4%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
35
1.48
PPG
1.63
39.4%
Win rate
45.7%
30.3%
Draw rate
25.7%
30.3%
Loss rate
28.6%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
65.7%
39.4%
Over 2.5 rate
51.4%
24.2%
Over 3.5 rate
25.7%
1.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
33
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.49
Goals for per game
1.46
72.9%
Scoring rate
79.7%
57.1%
BTTS rate
44.9%
1.24
Goals for per game
1.49
69.7%
Scoring rate
77.1%
51.5%
BTTS rate
45.7%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.30
62.5%
Scoring rate
78.3%
45.8%
BTTS rate
52.2%
70
History Matches
69
1.49
Goals Mean
1.46
1.19
Goals Std
1.12
72.9%
Scored 1+ rate
79.7%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
42.0%
21.4%
Scored 3+ rate
18.8%
1.24
Venue Goals Mean
1.49
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.23
Goals against per game
0.96
75.7%
Conceding rate
59.4%
1.12
Goals against per game
1.11
72.7%
Conceding rate
60.0%
1.17
Goals against per game
1.09
70.8%
Conceding rate
69.6%
70
History Matches
69
1.23
Conceded Mean
0.96
0.97
Conceded Std
1.01
34.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.6%
11.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.1%
1.12
Venue Conceded Mean
1.11
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.6%
27.1%
Failed-to-score rate
20.3%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
30.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.9%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.6%
27.1%
Failed-to-score rate
20.3%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
30.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.9%
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
70
History Matches
69
0.99
Result entropy
0.96
1.51
Goal Difference Std
1.52
1.31
Stability score
4.37
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
70
Eligible Matches
68
19
Lead Matches
26
68.4%
Lead Win Rate
80.8%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.87
13
Trailing Matches
12
23.1%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.34
0.87
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.77
Rest days
76.77
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.40
42
Normal Rest History Matches
43
1.55
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.84
21
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.48
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.30
Competition & season17 signals
170
24
Matches
23
1.21
PPG
1.43
29.2%
Win rate
39.1%
33.3%
Draw rate
26.1%
37.5%
Loss rate
34.8%
70.8%
Over 1.5 rate
60.9%
41.7%
Over 2.5 rate
47.8%
29.2%
Over 3.5 rate
21.7%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
24
Current Competition Matches
23
1.21
Current Competition PPG
1.43
0.17
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.22
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.22
Portability PPG Std
0.73
0.50
Portability PPG Range
2.00
69.88
Portability Score
40.53
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
70
Clean History Matches
69
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO11.23
PPG-0.12
GF0.02
GA0.27
PPG-0.23
PPG-0.14
PPG1.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate6.9%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate7.4%
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.02
Goals Std0.07
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate8.0%
Scored 3+ rate2.6%
Venue Goals Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.29
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.27
Conceded Std-0.04
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Conceded 2+ rate9.6%
Conceded 3+ rate1.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.01
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.53
History Matches1
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.01
Stability score-3.06
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.07
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.10
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.23
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.05
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.52
Portability PPG Range-1.50
Portability Score29.35
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.10
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.29
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.18
Current Team ELO11.23
Current Opponent ELO-11.23
Current ELO Difference22.46
Expected score0.03
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.33
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Daejeon Citizen

L
Kashiwa Reysol2–0Daejeon Citizen3 Nov · away
Pick: Kashiwa Reysol 56% · hit
L
Daejeon Citizen0–1Vissel Kobe27 Oct · home
Pick: Vissel Kobe 44% · hit
W
Gimcheon Sangmu FC1–2Daejeon Citizen24 Oct · away
Pick: Daejeon Citizen 41% · hit
W
Daejeon Citizen3–2Gwangju FC18 Oct · home
Pick: Daejeon Citizen 57% · hit
D
SHANGHAI SIPG1–1Daejeon Citizen13 Oct · away
Pick: SHANGHAI SIPG 52% · missed

Incheon United

W
FC Seoul0–1Incheon United1 Nov · away
Pick: FC Seoul 53% · missed
W
Incheon United3–1Jeju United FC24 Oct · home
Pick: Incheon United 49% · hit
D
Gangwon FC1–1Incheon United18 Oct · away
Pick: Gangwon FC 40% · missed
D
Incheon United1–1Jeonbuk Motors30 Aug · home
Pick: Incheon United 36% · missed
L
FC Anyang2–1Incheon United26 Aug · away
Pick: Incheon United 42% · missed

About this match

Daejeon Citizen and Incheon United meet in K League 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. The match is played at Daejeon World Cup Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Daejeon Citizen win 38.1%, draw 30.1%, Incheon United win 31.8%. The pick is Daejeon Citizen win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.6%. Both teams to score: 52.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.