ScoreProb
National Soccer League Rwanda Round 8 2026

Bugesera vs Amagaju

Bugesera Home · Elo 1,512
LIVE · 89'
2–1
Half time 2–1
Wed 4 Nov · 13:00 UTC
Amagaju Away · Elo 1,473
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Pick published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff
Pre-match probability, unchanged Model pick: Bugesera win
Bugesera winPick
39.7%
Draw
31.8%
Amagaju win
28.5%

Timeline

Newest at the bottom

GoalD. Nshimirimana · assist M. Mbusa
14'
Own goalK. Nganizi
22'
27'
GoalK. Nganizi · assist D. Iradukunda

Our pre-match picks, right now

Updates with every goal. There is no in-play model: this is the pre-match pick against the live score.

Match resultPick: Bugesera win · 39.7%
Ahead: 2–1
Both teams to scorePick: No · 55.4%
Already missed: both have scored
Over 2.5 goalsPick: Under · 55.7%
Already missed: over 2.5
The pre-match numbers never change after kickoff. That is what makes the record verifiable.

Both teams to score

Yes44.6%
No55.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.3%
Under 2.555.7%

How much we know

Bugesera history47 matches
Amagaju history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. Kickoff
    4 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

Share this match

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How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.7%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Bugesera are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bugesera are rated 40 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,512 against 1,473. On rating alone Bugesera would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Bugesera score far more

    1.13 goals a game over 47 matches for Bugesera, against 0.63 over 46 for Amagaju.

  • Defences are close

    Bugesera concede 1.06 a game, Amagaju 1.09.

  • Bugesera games more often go over 2.5 goals

    45% of Bugesera matches, against 22% for Amagaju. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 30 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bugesera
Amagaju
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1512.3
ELO
1472.6
47
ELO · Matches
46
1512.3
Current Team ELO
1472.6
1472.6
Current Opponent ELO
1512.3
39.64
Current ELO Difference
-39.64
0.56
Expected score
0.44
47
History Matches
46
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.02
50.51
Overperformance
48.33
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
0.60
2.00
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.70
1.10
Goals for per game
1.00
1.50
Goals against per game
0.90
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.89
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.30
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
46
1.38
PPG
1.09
38.3%
Win rate
28.3%
23.4%
Draw rate
23.9%
38.3%
Loss rate
47.8%
57.4%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
44.7%
Over 2.5 rate
21.7%
21.3%
Over 3.5 rate
4.3%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
22
1.50
PPG
1.18
45.5%
Win rate
31.8%
13.6%
Draw rate
22.7%
40.9%
Loss rate
45.5%
54.5%
Over 1.5 rate
36.4%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
27.3%
22.7%
Over 3.5 rate
9.1%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
22
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.13
Goals for per game
0.63
66.0%
Scoring rate
45.7%
38.3%
BTTS rate
30.4%
1.23
Goals for per game
0.64
59.1%
Scoring rate
45.5%
31.8%
BTTS rate
27.3%
47
History Matches
46
1.13
Goals Mean
0.63
1.12
Goals Std
0.76
66.0%
Scored 1+ rate
45.7%
31.9%
Scored 2+ rate
17.4%
8.5%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.23
Venue Goals Mean
0.64
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.06
Goals against per game
1.09
59.6%
Conceding rate
71.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.09
63.6%
Conceding rate
63.6%
47
History Matches
46
1.06
Conceded Mean
1.09
1.12
Conceded Std
1.27
31.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.7%
10.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.3%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.09
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
34.0%
Failed-to-score rate
54.3%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
40.9%
Failed-to-score rate
54.5%
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
34.0%
Failed-to-score rate
54.3%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
40.9%
Failed-to-score rate
54.5%
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
46
0.98
Result entropy
0.96
1.64
Goal Difference Std
1.58
2.15
Stability score
4.24
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
46
12
Lead Matches
7
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.90
12
Trailing Matches
15
16.7%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.46
First Half Goals For Mean
0.28
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.35
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
158.0
Rest days
158.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
23
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.57
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.38
19
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.37
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.85
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.08
Portability PPG Std
0.06
0.17
Portability PPG Range
0.13
85.71
Portability Score
88.57
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO39.64
PPG0.30
GF0.50
GA-0.02
PPG0.32
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate12.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.50
Goals Std0.36
Scored 1+ rate20.3%
Scored 2+ rate14.5%
Scored 3+ rate8.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.59
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.15
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.02
Conceded Std-0.15
Clean-sheet rate12.2%
Conceded 2+ rate10.2%
Conceded 3+ rate6.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.53
History Matches1
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score-2.09
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.94
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate8.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.02
Portability PPG Range0.04
Portability Score-2.86
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.75
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.19
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.52
Current Team ELO39.64
Current Opponent ELO-39.64
Current ELO Difference79.28
Expected score0.11
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bugesera

L
Police1–0Bugesera1 Nov · away
Pick: Police 46% · hit
W
Gasogi United0–2Bugesera18 Oct · away
Pick: Bugesera 35% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Amagaju

L
Amagaju1–3Musanze31 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 36% · missed
L
Gorilla2–1Amagaju24 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 42% · missed
W
Amagaju4–0Sunrise17 Oct · home
Pick: Amagaju 64% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Bugesera and Amagaju meet in National Soccer League on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Bugesera win 39.7%, draw 31.8%, Amagaju win 28.5%. The pick is Bugesera win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.3%. Both teams to score: 44.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.