Gorilla vs Gicumbi
Gorilla
LIVE · 90+7'
0–1
Half time 0–1
Wed 4 Nov · 13:00 UTC
Gicumbi
Pre-match probability, unchanged Model pick: Gorilla win
Gorilla winPick
47.6%
Draw
29.0%
Gicumbi win
23.4%
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
22'
GoalJ. Tuyisenge
Our pre-match picks, right now
Updates with every goal. There is no in-play model: this is the pre-match pick against the live score.
Match resultPick: Gorilla win · 47.6%
Behind: trailing 0–1 Both teams to scorePick: No · 50.5%
Holding Over 2.5 goalsPick: Under · 52.3%
Holding: 1 goal so far The pre-match numbers never change after kickoff. That is what makes the record verifiable.
Both teams to score
Yes49.5%
No50.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.547.7%
Under 2.552.3%
How much we know
Gorilla history44 matches
Gicumbi history31 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 13:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this match
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Gorilla are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,465 against 1,480. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Gicumbi score more
0.82 goals a game over 44 matches for Gorilla, against 1.16 over 31 for Gicumbi.
-
Gorilla concede fewer
Gorilla concede 1.18 a game, Gicumbi 1.58.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
43% of Gorilla matches, against 48% for Gicumbi. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 1 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gorilla
Gicumbi
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1465.5
ELO
1480.3
44
ELO · Matches
31
1465.5
Current Team ELO
1480.3
1480.3
Current Opponent ELO
1465.5
-14.88
Current ELO Difference
14.88
0.48
Expected score
0.52
44
History Matches
31
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.04
47.47
Overperformance
47.65
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.30
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.50
Goals against per game
1.70
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.49
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.58
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.06
Overall performance9 signals 90
44
Matches
31
1.09
PPG
1.13
27.3%
Win rate
29.0%
27.3%
Draw rate
25.8%
45.5%
Loss rate
45.2%
59.1%
Over 1.5 rate
83.9%
43.2%
Over 2.5 rate
48.4%
11.4%
Over 3.5 rate
25.8%
1.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
Venue performance10 signals 100
22
Matches
17
1.41
PPG
0.82
36.4%
Win rate
17.6%
31.8%
Draw rate
29.4%
31.8%
Loss rate
52.9%
63.6%
Over 1.5 rate
76.5%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
41.2%
9.1%
Over 3.5 rate
29.4%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
22
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.82
Goals for per game
1.16
59.1%
Scoring rate
74.2%
50.0%
BTTS rate
61.3%
0.95
Goals for per game
1.00
59.1%
Scoring rate
58.8%
50.0%
BTTS rate
52.9%
44
History Matches
31
0.82
Goals Mean
1.16
0.81
Goals Std
0.99
59.1%
Scored 1+ rate
74.2%
20.5%
Scored 2+ rate
29.0%
2.3%
Scored 3+ rate
9.7%
0.95
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.18
Goals against per game
1.58
77.3%
Conceding rate
80.6%
1.05
Goals against per game
1.65
72.7%
Conceding rate
82.4%
44
History Matches
31
1.18
Conceded Mean
1.58
1.01
Conceded Std
1.21
25.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.4%
11.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.4%
1.05
Venue Conceded Mean
1.65
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
40.9%
Failed-to-score rate
25.8%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
40.9%
Failed-to-score rate
41.2%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
40.9%
Failed-to-score rate
25.8%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
40.9%
Failed-to-score rate
41.2%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
44
History Matches
31
0.97
Result entropy
0.97
1.32
Goal Difference Std
1.62
2.87
Stability score
2.82
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
44
Eligible Matches
31
12
Lead Matches
7
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.72
Lead Points Retention
0.81
11
Trailing Matches
11
9.1%
Non-loss rate
9.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals 50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
31
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
0.32
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
156.9
Rest days
157.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
19
Normal Rest History Matches
16
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.38
22
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.01
Portability PPG Std
—
0.02
Portability PPG Range
—
98.05
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
44
Clean History Matches
31
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-14.88
PPG-0.04
GF-0.34
GA-0.40
PPG0.59
PPG0.20
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate3.4%
Failed-to-score rate15.1%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate9.6%
Failed-to-score rate0.00
History Matches13
Goals Mean-0.34
Goals Std-0.18
Scored 1+ rate-0.15
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.18
History Matches13
Conceded Mean-0.40
Conceded Std-0.21
Clean-sheet rate3.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.23
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.56
History Matches13
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.31
Stability score0.05
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.48
Eligible Matches13
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches13
First Half Goals For Mean-0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.31
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-0.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.38
Long Rest History Matches9
Long Rest Points Per Match0.05
Current Team ELO-14.88
Current Opponent ELO14.88
Current ELO Difference-29.77
Expected score-0.04
History Matches13
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Gorilla
D
Etoile de l'Est1–1Gorilla31 Oct · away
Pick: Etoile de l'Est 36% · missed W
Gorilla2–1Amagaju24 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 42% · missed D
Gasogi United0–0Gorilla21 Oct · away
Pick: Gasogi United 42% · missed D
Police0–0Gorilla16 Oct · away
Pick: Police 51% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Gicumbi
D
Gicumbi0–0Sunrise1 Nov · home
Pick: Gicumbi 61% · missed L
Mukura1–0Gicumbi25 Oct · away
Pick: Mukura 55% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Gorilla and Gicumbi meet in National Soccer League on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Gorilla win 47.6%, draw 29.0%, Gicumbi win 23.4%. The pick is Gorilla win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.7%. Both teams to score: 49.5%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.