ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 Spain Group 6 - 7 2026

Buñol vs Hércules II

Buñol Home · Elo 1,511
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hércules II Away · Elo 1,487
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Draw
Buñol win
30.6%
DrawPick
37.8%
Hércules II win
31.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.9%
No53.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.540.6%
Under 2.559.4%

How much we know

Buñol history33 matches
Hércules II history33 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why a draw is the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,511 against 1,487. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.03 goals a game over 33 matches for Buñol, against 0.94 over 33 for Hércules II.

  • Defences are close

    Buñol concede 1.21 a game, Hércules II 1.30.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    39% of Buñol matches, against 39% for Hércules II. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 9 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Buñol
Hércules II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1510.9
ELO
1486.5
33
ELO · Matches
33
1510.9
Current Team ELO
1486.5
1486.5
Current Opponent ELO
1510.9
24.38
Current ELO Difference
-24.38
0.54
Expected score
0.46
33
History Matches
33
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.02
50.79
Overperformance
48.55
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
0.40
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.30
0.70
Goals for per game
1.00
1.50
Goals against per game
1.70
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.69
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.95
Overall performance9 signals
90
33
Matches
33
1.48
PPG
1.24
39.4%
Win rate
30.3%
30.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
30.3%
Loss rate
36.4%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
39.4%
Over 2.5 rate
39.4%
24.2%
Over 3.5 rate
21.2%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
Venue performance10 signals
100
16
Matches
17
1.69
PPG
1.41
43.8%
Win rate
35.3%
37.5%
Draw rate
35.3%
18.8%
Loss rate
29.4%
56.3%
Over 1.5 rate
64.7%
31.3%
Over 2.5 rate
35.3%
18.8%
Over 3.5 rate
5.9%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
16
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.03
Goals for per game
0.94
66.7%
Scoring rate
69.7%
39.4%
BTTS rate
48.5%
1.06
Goals for per game
0.94
62.5%
Scoring rate
76.5%
25.0%
BTTS rate
52.9%
33
History Matches
33
1.03
Goals Mean
0.94
0.90
Goals Std
0.78
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
69.7%
30.3%
Scored 2+ rate
21.2%
6.1%
Scored 3+ rate
3.0%
1.06
Venue Goals Mean
0.94
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.21
Goals against per game
1.30
60.6%
Conceding rate
72.7%
0.75
Goals against per game
1.12
37.5%
Conceding rate
76.5%
33
History Matches
33
1.21
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.30
Conceded Std
1.14
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.4%
18.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.2%
0.75
Venue Conceded Mean
1.12
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
39.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
62.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
39.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
62.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
39.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
33
History Matches
33
0.99
Result entropy
1.00
1.71
Goal Difference Std
1.47
0.73
Stability score
0.25
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
33
Eligible Matches
33
5
Lead Matches
9
40.0%
Lead Win Rate
33.3%
0.60
Lead Points Retention
0.48
11
Trailing Matches
7
27.3%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
33
Halftime Coverage Matches
33
0.24
First Half Goals For Mean
0.39
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
179.1
Rest days
179.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
13
Normal Rest History Matches
14
1.46
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.14
18
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.31
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
33
Clean History Matches
33
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO24.38
PPG0.24
GF0.09
GA-0.09
PPG0.28
PPG0.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate12.1%
Failed-to-score rate3.0%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate39.0%
Failed-to-score rate14.0%
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.09
Goals Std0.13
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate9.1%
Scored 3+ rate3.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.22
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.09
Conceded Std0.16
Clean-sheet rate12.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate3.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.37
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.34
History Matches0
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.24
Stability score0.48
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.28
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate6.7%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate13.0%
Trailing Win Rate18.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.32
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.02
Current Team ELO24.38
Current Opponent ELO-24.38
Current ELO Difference48.76
Expected score0.07
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Buñol

W
Buñol2–0Vall de Uxó31 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 38% · missed
W
Crevillente0–1Buñol25 Oct · away
Pick: Crevillente 44% · missed
L
Buñol0–1Torrent4 Oct · home
Pick: Torrent 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Hércules II

D
Acero0–0Hércules II1 Nov · away
Pick: Acero 37% · missed
L
Hércules II0–1Vall de Uxó24 Oct · home
Pick: Vall de Uxó 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Buñol and Hércules II meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Buñol win 30.6%, draw 37.8%, Hércules II win 31.6%. The pick is a draw. Over 2.5 goals: 40.6%. Both teams to score: 46.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.