ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 Spain Group 6 - 7 2026

Saguntino vs Jove Español

Saguntino Home · Elo 1,564
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Jove Español Away · Elo 1,458
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Saguntino win
Saguntino winPick
51.3%
Draw
27.4%
Jove Español win
21.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.9%
No50.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.3%
Under 2.550.7%

How much we know

Saguntino history52 matches
Jove Español history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 18:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Saguntino are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Saguntino are rated 106 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,564 against 1,458. On rating alone Saguntino would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Saguntino score more

    1.35 goals a game over 52 matches for Saguntino, against 1.10 over 49 for Jove Español.

  • Saguntino concede fewer

    Saguntino concede 1.02 a game, Jove Español 1.41.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    46% of Saguntino matches, against 53% for Jove Español. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 14 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Saguntino
Jove Español
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1564.0
ELO
1458.2
52
ELO · Matches
49
1564.0
Current Team ELO
1458.2
1458.2
Current Opponent ELO
1564.0
105.8
Current ELO Difference
-105.8
0.65
Expected score
0.35
52
History Matches
49
0.06
Residual Mean
-0.04
54.14
Overperformance
46.92
0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.00
2.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.40
1.70
Goals for per game
1.40
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
70.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.80
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
49
1.56
PPG
1.16
42.3%
Win rate
32.7%
28.8%
Draw rate
18.4%
28.8%
Loss rate
49.0%
67.3%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
46.2%
Over 2.5 rate
53.1%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
22.4%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
25
1.88
PPG
0.88
52.0%
Win rate
24.0%
32.0%
Draw rate
16.0%
16.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
56.0%
Over 1.5 rate
72.0%
36.0%
Over 2.5 rate
56.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
16.0%
1.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.43
25
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.35
Goals for per game
1.10
75.0%
Scoring rate
63.3%
51.9%
BTTS rate
51.0%
1.40
Goals for per game
0.88
72.0%
Scoring rate
64.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
52.0%
52
History Matches
49
1.35
Goals Mean
1.10
1.16
Goals Std
1.07
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
63.3%
36.5%
Scored 2+ rate
32.7%
15.4%
Scored 3+ rate
12.2%
1.40
Venue Goals Mean
0.88
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.02
Goals against per game
1.41
63.5%
Conceding rate
79.6%
0.68
Goals against per game
1.60
52.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
52
History Matches
49
1.02
Conceded Mean
1.41
0.95
Conceded Std
1.11
30.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.9%
7.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.2%
0.68
Venue Conceded Mean
1.60
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.7%
48.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.7%
48.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
49
0.98
Result entropy
0.93
1.44
Goal Difference Std
1.59
1.59
Stability score
6.58
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
49
13
Lead Matches
11
76.9%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.85
15
Trailing Matches
13
26.7%
Non-loss rate
23.1%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
82.04
Rest days
85.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
24
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.54
25
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.48
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.55
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.11
0.95
Portability PPG Range
0.21
51.33
Portability Score
82.50
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO105.8
PPG0.39
GF0.24
GA-0.39
PPG1.00
PPG0.80
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate16.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate28.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.24
Goals Std0.08
Scored 1+ rate11.7%
Scored 2+ rate3.9%
Scored 3+ rate3.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.52
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.20
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.39
Conceded Std-0.15
Clean-sheet rate16.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.38
History Matches3
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.16
Stability score-4.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.09
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate3.6%
Trailing Win Rate12.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.30
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.37
Portability PPG Range0.74
Portability Score-31.17
Rest days-2.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.13
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.93
Current Team ELO105.8
Current Opponent ELO-105.8
Current ELO Difference211.6
Expected score0.30
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance7.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Saguntino

W
Saguntino3–1Atzeneta31 Oct · home
Pick: Saguntino 54% · hit
L
Torrellano2–1Saguntino25 Oct · away
Pick: Saguntino 42% · missed
W
Saguntino3–2Utiel4 Oct · home
Pick: Saguntino 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Jove Español

D
Ontinyent 19312–2Jove Español1 Nov · away
Pick: Ontinyent 1931 36% · missed
L
Jove Español0–2Levante II24 Oct · home
Pick: Levante II 40% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Saguntino and Jove Español meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 18:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Saguntino win 51.3%, draw 27.4%, Jove Español win 21.3%. The pick is Saguntino win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.3%. Both teams to score: 49.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.