Cacereno W vs Deportivo Alavés W
Match result probability Model pick: Cacereno W win
Cacereno W winPick
50.0%
Draw
26.0%
Deportivo Alavés W win
24.1%
No match played
If the match is played on a new date, this page updates by itself.
Both teams to score
Yes53.4%
No46.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.550.9%
Under 2.549.1%
How much we know
Cacereno W history0 matches
Deportivo Alavés W history0 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 20:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this match
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (50.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Cacereno W are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,500 against 1,500. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Deportivo Alavés W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Residual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
1500.0
ELO
1500.0
0
ELO · Matches
0
1500.0
Current Team ELO
1500.0
1500.0
Current Opponent ELO
1500.0
0.00
Current ELO Difference
0.00
0.50
Expected score
0.50
0
History Matches
0
Recent form16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGoals for per gameGoals against per gameWin ratePPGGoals for per gameGoals against per gameWin rateRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference Std
0
Matches
0
0
Matches
0
Overall performance9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviation
0
Matches
0
Venue performance10 signals 100
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviation
0
Matches
0
0
History Matches
0
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rateGoals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rateGoals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals Mean
0
History Matches
0
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rateGoals against per gameConceding rateGoals against per gameConceding rateConceded MeanConceded StdConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded Mean
0
History Matches
0
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rate
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Result entropyGoal Difference StdStability score
0
History Matches
0
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Lead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win Rate
0
Eligible Matches
0
0
Lead Matches
0
0
Trailing Matches
0
Goal timing5 signals 50
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
First Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against Mean
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
0
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Rest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
0
Normal Rest History Matches
0
0
Long Rest History Matches
0
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
0
Competition Season Count
0
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
0
Clean History Matches
0
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
History Matches0
History Matches0
History Matches0
History Matches0
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches0
Trailing Matches0
Halftime Coverage Matches0
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Long Rest History Matches0
Current Team ELO0.00
Current Opponent ELO0.00
Current ELO Difference0.00
Expected score0.00
History Matches0
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Cacereno W
No earlier results with our pick yet
Deportivo Alavés W
D
Deportivo Alavés W1–1Real Sociedad W1 Nov · home
Pick: Real Sociedad W 35% · missed L
Deportivo de La Coruña W2–1Deportivo Alavés W25 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo de La Coruña W 65% · hit D
Deportivo Alavés W1–1Sevilla W18 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo Alavés W 37% · missed W
Deportivo Alavés W2–0Valencia W30 Aug · home
Pick: Valencia W 38% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Cacereno W and Deportivo Alavés W were due to play in Copa de la Reina on Wednesday 4 November 2026, but the match was not played.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.