Carroi vs Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
Match result probability Model pick: Atlètic Club d'Escaldes win
Carroi win
22.0%
Draw
23.9%
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes winPick
54.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes48.8%
No51.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.558.2%
Under 2.541.8%
How much we know
Carroi history34 matches
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 15:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Atlètic Club d'Escaldes are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes are rated 137 Elo points higher
Elo 1,577 against 1,439. On rating alone Atlètic Club d'Escaldes would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.
-
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes score far more
1.06 goals a game over 34 matches for Carroi, against 1.89 over 53 for Atlètic Club d'Escaldes.
-
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes concede fewer
Carroi concede 1.76 a game, Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 1.02.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
59% of Carroi matches, against 58% for Atlètic Club d'Escaldes. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 30 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1439.4
ELO
1576.7
34
ELO · Matches
53
1439.4
Current Team ELO
1576.7
1576.7
Current Opponent ELO
1439.4
-137.3
Current ELO Difference
137.3
0.31
Expected score
0.69
34
History Matches
53
-0.08
Residual Mean
0.07
45.06
Overperformance
54.96
-0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.80
0.60
Goals for per game
1.40
2.20
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
1.80
0.40
Goals for per game
1.60
2.00
Goals against per game
1.70
10.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.67
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.27
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.80
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.12
Overall performance9 signals 90
34
Matches
53
1.03
PPG
1.75
26.5%
Win rate
52.8%
23.5%
Draw rate
17.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
30.2%
67.6%
Over 1.5 rate
79.2%
58.8%
Over 2.5 rate
58.5%
32.4%
Over 3.5 rate
35.8%
2.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.26
Venue performance10 signals 100
19
Matches
27
1.37
PPG
1.37
36.8%
Win rate
37.0%
26.3%
Draw rate
25.9%
36.8%
Loss rate
37.0%
57.9%
Over 1.5 rate
74.1%
47.4%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
21.1%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.37
19
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.06
Goals for per game
1.89
47.1%
Scoring rate
75.5%
38.2%
BTTS rate
41.5%
0.89
Goals for per game
1.63
52.6%
Scoring rate
66.7%
42.1%
BTTS rate
48.1%
34
History Matches
53
1.06
Goals Mean
1.89
1.83
Goals Std
1.64
47.1%
Scored 1+ rate
75.5%
20.6%
Scored 2+ rate
52.8%
11.8%
Scored 3+ rate
30.2%
0.89
Venue Goals Mean
1.63
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.76
Goals against per game
1.02
70.6%
Conceding rate
58.5%
1.26
Goals against per game
1.30
68.4%
Conceding rate
70.4%
34
History Matches
53
1.76
Conceded Mean
1.02
1.75
Conceded Std
1.07
44.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.2%
32.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.3%
1.26
Venue Conceded Mean
1.30
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
41.5%
52.9%
Failed-to-score rate
24.5%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
47.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
41.5%
52.9%
Failed-to-score rate
24.5%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
47.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
41.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
34
History Matches
53
0.95
Result entropy
0.91
2.81
Goal Difference Std
2.26
5.44
Stability score
9.00
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
30
Eligible Matches
53
6
Lead Matches
20
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
90.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.90
13
Trailing Matches
11
7.7%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
18.2%
Goal timing5 signals 50
30
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.06
1.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
176.1
Rest days
101.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
13
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.08
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.04
18
Long Rest History Matches
24
0.83
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.46
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
7
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.78
Portability PPG Std
0.59
1.57
Portability PPG Range
1.67
38.98
Portability Score
45.84
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
34
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-137.3
PPG-0.73
GF-0.83
GA0.75
PPG0.00
PPG-1.00
PPG-1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-19
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate28.4%
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate1.9%
Failed-to-score rate14.0%
History Matches-19
Goals Mean-0.83
Goals Std0.19
Scored 1+ rate-0.28
Scored 2+ rate-0.32
Scored 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Goals Mean-0.73
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.36
History Matches-19
Conceded Mean0.75
Conceded Std0.68
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Conceded 2+ rate13.9%
Conceded 3+ rate21.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.40
History Matches-19
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.56
Stability score-3.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.32
Eligible Matches-23
Lead Matches-14
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches-23
First Half Goals For Mean-0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean0.30
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.62
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-4
Portability PPG Std0.19
Portability PPG Range-0.10
Portability Score-6.87
Rest days75.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-14
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.96
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.63
Current Team ELO-137.3
Current Opponent ELO137.3
Current ELO Difference-274.5
Expected score-0.38
History Matches-19
Residual Mean-0.15
Overperformance-9.90
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.30
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Carroi
L
Carroi0–3Casa de Portugal1 Nov · home
Pick: Carroi 59% · missed L
Ordino3–2Carroi25 Oct · away
Pick: Ordino 54% · hit L
Carroi0–1Sporting Escaldes18 Oct · home
Pick: Carroi 61% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
W
Ordino0–2Atlètic Club d'Escaldes1 Nov · away
Pick: Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 52% · hit D
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes1–1Ranger's25 Oct · home
Pick: Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 58% · missed L
Inter Club d'Escaldes4–2Atlètic Club d'Escaldes18 Oct · away
Pick: Inter Club d'Escaldes 47% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Carroi and Atlètic Club d'Escaldes meet in 1a Divisió on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Carroi win 22.0%, draw 23.9%, Atlètic Club d'Escaldes win 54.1%. The pick is Atlètic Club d'Escaldes win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.2%. Both teams to score: 48.8%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.