ScoreProb
1a Divisió Andorra Round 8 2026

Penya Encarnada vs Ranger's

Penya Encarnada Home · Elo 1,457
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ranger's Away · Elo 1,587
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ranger's win
Penya Encarnada win
23.3%
Draw
28.3%
Ranger's winPick
48.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.1%
No52.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.1%
Under 2.547.9%

How much we know

Penya Encarnada history39 matches
Ranger's history41 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Ranger's are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ranger's are rated 130 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,587 against 1,457. On rating alone Ranger's would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Ranger's score far more

    0.97 goals a game over 39 matches for Penya Encarnada, against 1.90 over 41 for Ranger's.

  • Ranger's concede fewer

    Penya Encarnada concede 1.59 a game, Ranger's 0.93.

  • Ranger's games more often go over 2.5 goals

    41% of Penya Encarnada matches, against 51% for Ranger's. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 17 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Penya Encarnada
Ranger's@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1457.0
ELO
1587.4
39
ELO · Matches
41
1457.0
Current Team ELO
1587.4
1587.4
Current Opponent ELO
1457.0
-130.4
Current ELO Difference
130.4
0.32
Expected score
0.68
39
History Matches
41
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.10
46.58
Overperformance
57.02
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.40
0.60
Goals for per game
2.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.90
0.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.10
Goals against per game
1.30
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.36
Overall performance9 signals
90
39
Matches
41
1.10
PPG
1.80
30.8%
Win rate
53.7%
17.9%
Draw rate
19.5%
51.3%
Loss rate
26.8%
64.1%
Over 1.5 rate
82.9%
41.0%
Over 2.5 rate
51.2%
25.6%
Over 3.5 rate
26.8%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
21
1.10
PPG
1.81
30.0%
Win rate
52.4%
20.0%
Draw rate
23.8%
50.0%
Loss rate
23.8%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
90.5%
45.0%
Over 2.5 rate
47.6%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
20
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.97
Goals for per game
1.90
56.4%
Scoring rate
82.9%
38.5%
BTTS rate
48.8%
1.05
Goals for per game
1.67
60.0%
Scoring rate
85.7%
45.0%
BTTS rate
52.4%
39
History Matches
41
0.97
Goals Mean
1.90
1.10
Goals Std
1.46
56.4%
Scored 1+ rate
82.9%
28.2%
Scored 2+ rate
56.1%
7.7%
Scored 3+ rate
29.3%
1.05
Venue Goals Mean
1.67
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.59
Goals against per game
0.93
74.4%
Conceding rate
61.0%
1.60
Goals against per game
0.86
80.0%
Conceding rate
61.9%
39
History Matches
41
1.59
Conceded Mean
0.93
1.55
Conceded Std
1.05
41.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
19.5%
20.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.3%
1.60
Venue Conceded Mean
0.86
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
39.0%
43.6%
Failed-to-score rate
17.1%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.1%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
39.0%
43.6%
Failed-to-score rate
17.1%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.1%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
39.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
39
History Matches
41
0.92
Result entropy
0.92
1.88
Goal Difference Std
1.89
7.75
Stability score
8.44
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
38
Eligible Matches
41
7
Lead Matches
18
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.91
13
Trailing Matches
9
15.4%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
22.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
38
Halftime Coverage Matches
41
0.37
First Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.61
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.02
1.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
175.0
Rest days
175.6
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
16
Normal Rest History Matches
18
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.67
21
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.24
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.15
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.19
0.36
Portability PPG Range
0.38
73.68
Portability Score
72.22
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
39
Clean History Matches
41
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-130.4
PPG-0.70
GF-0.93
GA0.66
PPG-0.71
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate26.5%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate25.7%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.93
Goals Std-0.36
Scored 1+ rate-0.27
Scored 2+ rate-0.28
Scored 3+ rate-0.22
Venue Goals Mean-0.62
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.21
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.66
Conceded Std0.50
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate21.5%
Conceded 3+ rate13.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.74
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.51
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.02
Stability score-0.69
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.24
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.18
Trailing Win Rate-0.22
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.54
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.01
Portability PPG Range-0.03
Portability Score1.46
Rest days-0.59
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.67
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.91
Current Team ELO-130.4
Current Opponent ELO130.4
Current ELO Difference-260.8
Expected score-0.36
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.16
Overperformance-10.44
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Penya Encarnada

D
Inter Club d'Escaldes0–0Penya Encarnada1 Nov · away
Pick: Inter Club d'Escaldes 67% · missed
L
Penya Encarnada0–1Esperança d'Andorra25 Oct · home
Pick: Penya Encarnada 53% · missed
L
Casa de Portugal3–0Penya Encarnada18 Oct · away
Pick: Penya Encarnada 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ranger's

L
Ranger's0–2FC Santa Coloma1 Nov · home
Pick: FC Santa Coloma 41% · hit
D
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes1–1Ranger's25 Oct · away
Pick: Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 58% · missed
L
Ranger's0–1Ordino17 Oct · home
Pick: Ranger's 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Penya Encarnada and Ranger's meet in 1a Divisió on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Penya Encarnada win 23.3%, draw 28.3%, Ranger's win 48.4%. The pick is Ranger's win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.1%. Both teams to score: 47.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.