ScoreProb
Serie C - Girone C Italy Girone C - 13 2026

Casertana vs Casarano

Casertana Home · Elo 1,542
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Casarano Away · Elo 1,537
Stadio Alberto Pinto, Caserta Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Casertana win
Casertana winPick
49.4%
Draw
23.4%
Casarano win
27.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.4%
No44.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.2%
Under 2.539.8%

How much we know

Casertana history59 matches
Casarano history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Casertana are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,542 against 1,537. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Casarano score more

    1.46 goals a game over 59 matches for Casertana, against 1.64 over 64 for Casarano.

  • Casertana concede fewer

    Casertana concede 1.17 a game, Casarano 1.36.

  • Casarano games more often go over 2.5 goals

    46% of Casertana matches, against 59% for Casarano. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Casertana
Casarano
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1542.0
ELO
1537.1
59
ELO · Matches
64
1542.0
Current Team ELO
1537.1
1537.1
Current Opponent ELO
1542.0
4.81
Current ELO Difference
-4.81
0.51
Expected score
0.49
59
History Matches
64
0.04
Residual Mean
0.02
52.72
Overperformance
51.64
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
0.80
2.00
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.30
1.50
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.30
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.12
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.74
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.61
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
64
1.53
PPG
1.64
42.4%
Win rate
48.4%
25.4%
Draw rate
18.8%
32.2%
Loss rate
32.8%
78.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.3%
45.8%
Over 2.5 rate
59.4%
27.1%
Over 3.5 rate
34.4%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
34
1.87
PPG
1.47
53.3%
Win rate
44.1%
26.7%
Draw rate
14.7%
20.0%
Loss rate
41.2%
76.7%
Over 1.5 rate
85.3%
56.7%
Over 2.5 rate
70.6%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
41.2%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.19
30
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.46
Goals for per game
1.64
78.0%
Scoring rate
82.8%
50.8%
BTTS rate
51.6%
1.80
Goals for per game
1.71
86.7%
Scoring rate
82.4%
60.0%
BTTS rate
58.8%
3.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
59
History Matches
64
1.46
Goals Mean
1.64
1.25
Goals Std
1.24
78.0%
Scored 1+ rate
82.8%
39.0%
Scored 2+ rate
46.9%
18.6%
Scored 3+ rate
23.4%
1.80
Venue Goals Mean
1.71
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.17
Goals against per game
1.36
69.5%
Conceding rate
65.6%
1.10
Goals against per game
1.68
70.0%
Conceding rate
73.5%
3.00
Goals against per game
4.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
59
History Matches
64
1.17
Conceded Mean
1.36
1.03
Conceded Std
1.35
33.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.6%
11.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.8%
1.10
Venue Conceded Mean
1.68
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.5%
Clean-sheet rate
34.4%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.2%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
30.5%
Clean-sheet rate
34.4%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.2%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
30.5%
Clean-sheet rate
34.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
64
0.98
Result entropy
0.94
1.80
Goal Difference Std
2.03
1.98
Stability score
6.19
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
64
18
Lead Matches
20
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
85.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.87
12
Trailing Matches
17
50.0%
Non-loss rate
29.4%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.77
Rest days
77.77
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
34
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.62
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.68
21
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-3.00
6
Competition Season Count
8
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.22
Portability PPG Std
0.38
0.49
Portability PPG Range
0.88
69.29
Portability Score
56.87
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO4.81
PPG-0.12
GF-0.18
GA-0.19
PPG1.00
PPG0.40
PPG-0.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate4.8%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate3.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-5
Goals Mean-0.18
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.63
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean-0.19
Conceded Std-0.32
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.58
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.33
History Matches-5
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.24
Stability score-4.21
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.31
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate20.6%
Trailing Win Rate8.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.16
Portability PPG Range-0.40
Portability Score12.43
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.08
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.06
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Current Team ELO4.81
Current Opponent ELO-4.81
Current ELO Difference9.61
Expected score0.01
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance1.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Casertana

L
Giugliano1–0Casertana31 Oct · away
Pick: Giugliano 40% · hit
D
Casertana1–1Bari23 Oct · home
Pick: Casertana 41% · missed
D
Sorrento0–0Casertana18 Oct · away
Pick: Sorrento 46% · missed
W
Savoia1–2Casertana29 Aug · away
Pick: Savoia 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Casarano

D
Casarano2–2Foggia2 Nov · home
Pick: Casarano 46% · missed
W
Crotone0–1Casarano26 Oct · away
Pick: Crotone 51% · missed
L
Cavese5–2Casarano18 Oct · away
Pick: Cavese 37% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Casertana and Casarano meet in Serie C - Girone C on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Alberto Pinto, Caserta. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Casertana win 49.4%, draw 23.4%, Casarano win 27.2%. The pick is Casertana win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.2%. Both teams to score: 55.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.