ScoreProb
Serie C - Girone C Italy Girone C - 13 2026

Inter U23 vs Salernitana

Inter U23 Home · Elo 1,496
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Salernitana Away · Elo 1,568
Stadio Ernesto Breda, Sesto San Giovanni Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Inter U23 win
Inter U23 winPick
45.0%
Draw
25.8%
Salernitana win
29.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.8%
No50.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.7%
Under 2.555.3%

How much we know

Inter U23 history46 matches
Salernitana history66 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Inter U23 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Salernitana are rated 72 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,568 against 1,496. On rating alone Salernitana would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.13 goals a game over 46 matches for Inter U23, against 1.21 over 66 for Salernitana.

  • Defences are close

    Inter U23 concede 1.11 a game, Salernitana 1.08.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    43% of Inter U23 matches, against 41% for Salernitana. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Inter U23
Salernitana
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1495.6
ELO
1567.5
46
ELO · Matches
66
1495.6
Current Team ELO
1567.5
1567.5
Current Opponent ELO
1495.6
-71.93
Current ELO Difference
71.93
0.40
Expected score
0.60
46
History Matches
66
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.05
48.84
Overperformance
54.02
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.80
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.70
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.89
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.18
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.36
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
66
1.35
PPG
1.64
34.8%
Win rate
47.0%
30.4%
Draw rate
22.7%
34.8%
Loss rate
30.3%
71.7%
Over 1.5 rate
68.2%
43.5%
Over 2.5 rate
40.9%
13.0%
Over 3.5 rate
15.2%
1.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
32
0.85
PPG
1.38
15.0%
Win rate
40.6%
40.0%
Draw rate
15.6%
45.0%
Loss rate
43.8%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
65.6%
30.0%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
15.0%
Over 3.5 rate
21.9%
0.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
20
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.13
Goals for per game
1.21
71.7%
Scoring rate
72.7%
58.7%
BTTS rate
51.5%
0.80
Goals for per game
1.06
55.0%
Scoring rate
59.4%
45.0%
BTTS rate
40.6%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
46
History Matches
66
1.13
Goals Mean
1.21
0.85
Goals Std
0.93
71.7%
Scored 1+ rate
72.7%
39.1%
Scored 2+ rate
40.9%
2.2%
Scored 3+ rate
7.6%
0.80
Venue Goals Mean
1.06
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.11
Goals against per game
1.08
78.3%
Conceding rate
69.7%
1.05
Goals against per game
1.31
75.0%
Conceding rate
71.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
46
History Matches
66
1.11
Conceded Mean
1.08
0.84
Conceded Std
1.06
26.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.2%
4.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.6%
1.05
Venue Conceded Mean
1.31
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
30.3%
28.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
45.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
30.3%
28.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
45.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.6%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
30.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
66
1.00
Result entropy
0.96
1.15
Goal Difference Std
1.35
0.17
Stability score
4.11
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
66
14
Lead Matches
14
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
78.6%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.83
12
Trailing Matches
18
25.0%
Non-loss rate
27.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
22.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.41
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.52
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.90
Rest days
74.77
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
5
2.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
27
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.11
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.85
15
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.47
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.37
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
0.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
5
Competition Season Count
8
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.28
0.74
Portability PPG Range
0.60
60.09
Portability Score
64.28
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
66
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-71.93
PPG-0.29
GF-0.08
GA0.03
PPG3.00
PPG-0.53
PPG0.80
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-20
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate1.0%
History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate4.4%
History Matches-20
Goals Mean-0.08
Goals Std-0.08
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean-0.26
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.02
History Matches-20
Conceded Mean0.03
Conceded Std-0.22
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate1.8%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.26
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.12
History Matches-20
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.20
Stability score-3.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.17
Eligible Matches-20
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate-0.22
Halftime Coverage Matches-20
First Half Goals For Mean0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range0.14
Portability Score-4.18
Rest days1.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.33
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.74
Long Rest History Matches-12
Long Rest Points Per Match0.10
Current Team ELO-71.93
Current Opponent ELO71.93
Current ELO Difference-143.9
Expected score-0.20
History Matches-20
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Inter U23

L
Cosenza1–0Inter U231 Nov · away
Pick: Cosenza 43% · hit
W
Inter U232–1Scafatese27 Oct · home
Pick: Inter U23 42% · hit
D
Inter U231–1Sorrento24 Oct · home
Pick: Inter U23 41% · missed
L
Inter U232–4SS Monopoli17 Oct · home
Pick: Inter U23 49% · missed
W
Giugliano0–4Inter U2313 Oct · away
Pick: Giugliano 43% · missed

Salernitana

D
Salernitana1–1Savoia1 Nov · home
Pick: Salernitana 42% · missed
L
AZ Picerno3–0Salernitana26 Oct · away
Pick: AZ Picerno 51% · hit
D
Salernitana2–2Scafatese17 Oct · home
Pick: Salernitana 40% · missed
W
Salernitana2–1Bari4 Oct · home
Pick: Salernitana 47% · hit
D
Foggia1–1Salernitana29 Aug · away
Pick: Salernitana 45% · missed

About this match

Inter U23 and Salernitana meet in Serie C - Girone C on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Ernesto Breda, Sesto San Giovanni. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Inter U23 win 45.0%, draw 25.8%, Salernitana win 29.2%. The pick is Inter U23 win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.7%. Both teams to score: 49.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.