ScoreProb
Serie C - Girone C Italy Girone C - 13 2026

Crotone vs Giugliano

Crotone Home · Elo 1,515
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Giugliano Away · Elo 1,452
Stadio Ezio Scida, Crotone Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Crotone win
Crotone winPick
46.5%
Draw
25.9%
Giugliano win
27.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.9%
No46.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.0%
Under 2.547.0%

How much we know

Crotone history64 matches
Giugliano history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Crotone are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Crotone are rated 63 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,515 against 1,452. On rating alone Crotone would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Crotone score more

    1.47 goals a game over 64 matches for Crotone, against 1.30 over 60 for Giugliano.

  • Crotone concede fewer

    Crotone concede 1.13 a game, Giugliano 1.52.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of Crotone matches, against 53% for Giugliano. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Crotone
Giugliano
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1515.0
ELO
1452.1
64
ELO · Matches
60
1515.0
Current Team ELO
1452.1
1452.1
Current Opponent ELO
1515.0
62.92
Current ELO Difference
-62.92
0.59
Expected score
0.41
64
History Matches
60
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.04
51.26
Overperformance
47.33
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
0.80
0.80
Goals for per game
1.00
2.00
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.10
1.30
Goals for per game
1.00
1.50
Goals against per game
1.30
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.35
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
60
1.52
PPG
1.10
43.8%
Win rate
28.3%
20.3%
Draw rate
25.0%
35.9%
Loss rate
46.7%
73.4%
Over 1.5 rate
71.7%
48.4%
Over 2.5 rate
53.3%
29.7%
Over 3.5 rate
35.0%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
29
1.88
PPG
0.72
58.8%
Win rate
13.8%
11.8%
Draw rate
31.0%
29.4%
Loss rate
55.2%
64.7%
Over 1.5 rate
69.0%
41.2%
Over 2.5 rate
51.7%
26.5%
Over 3.5 rate
37.9%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.24
34
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.47
Goals for per game
1.30
73.4%
Scoring rate
70.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
55.0%
1.56
Goals for per game
1.00
73.5%
Scoring rate
69.0%
38.2%
BTTS rate
58.6%
0.00
Goals for per game
3.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
64
History Matches
60
1.47
Goals Mean
1.30
1.22
Goals Std
1.26
73.4%
Scored 1+ rate
70.0%
43.8%
Scored 2+ rate
35.0%
23.4%
Scored 3+ rate
15.0%
1.56
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.13
Goals against per game
1.52
68.8%
Conceding rate
78.3%
0.85
Goals against per game
1.79
55.9%
Conceding rate
82.8%
1.00
Goals against per game
3.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
64
History Matches
60
1.13
Conceded Mean
1.52
1.05
Conceded Std
1.19
31.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.7%
7.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.7%
0.85
Venue Conceded Mean
1.79
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
26.6%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
44.1%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
26.6%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
44.1%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
60
0.96
Result entropy
0.96
1.67
Goal Difference Std
1.68
4.13
Stability score
3.55
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
60
25
Lead Matches
15
76.0%
Lead Win Rate
73.3%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.80
13
Trailing Matches
22
23.1%
Non-loss rate
22.7%
15.4%
Trailing Win Rate
4.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.66
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.77
Rest days
77.77
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
42
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.52
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.39
18
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.56
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.83
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
7
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.51
Portability PPG Std
0.42
1.45
Portability PPG Range
1.03
49.29
Portability Score
54.29
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO62.92
PPG0.42
GF0.17
GA-0.39
PPG-1.00
PPG1.16
PPG-0.40
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate9.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate26.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.17
Goals Std-0.03
Scored 1+ rate3.4%
Scored 2+ rate8.8%
Scored 3+ rate8.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.56
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.09
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.39
Conceded Std-0.14
Clean-sheet rate9.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Conceded Mean-0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.28
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.01
Stability score0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.19
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate2.7%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate0.3%
Trailing Win Rate10.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.09
Portability PPG Range0.42
Portability Score-5.00
Rest days-3.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.33
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.13
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.72
Current Team ELO62.92
Current Opponent ELO-62.92
Current ELO Difference125.8
Expected score0.18
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.93
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Crotone

L
Potenza4–2Crotone1 Nov · away
Pick: Potenza 57% · hit
L
Crotone0–1Casarano26 Oct · home
Pick: Crotone 51% · missed
D
Bari0–0Crotone18 Oct · away
Pick: Bari 45% · missed
L
Sorrento1–0Crotone29 Aug · away
Pick: Crotone 41% · missed
L
Crotone0–1Foggia24 Aug · home
Pick: Crotone 62% · missed

Giugliano

W
Giugliano1–0Casertana31 Oct · home
Pick: Giugliano 40% · hit
L
Catania6–0Giugliano25 Oct · away
Pick: Catania 43% · hit
W
Giugliano3–1Foggia19 Oct · home
Pick: Giugliano 46% · hit
L
Giugliano0–4Inter U2313 Oct · home
Pick: Giugliano 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Crotone and Giugliano meet in Serie C - Girone C on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Ezio Scida, Crotone. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Crotone win 46.5%, draw 25.9%, Giugliano win 27.6%. The pick is Crotone win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.0%. Both teams to score: 53.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.