ScoreProb
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 Spain Group 3 - 10 2026

Castellón II vs Peña Deportiva

Castellón II Home · Elo 1,487
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Peña Deportiva Away · Elo 1,591
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Peña Deportiva win
Castellón II win
33.3%
Draw
21.2%
Peña Deportiva winPick
45.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.6%
No40.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.5%
Under 2.534.5%

How much we know

Castellón II history52 matches
Peña Deportiva history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Peña Deportiva are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Peña Deportiva are rated 104 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,591 against 1,487. On rating alone Peña Deportiva would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.87 goals a game over 52 matches for Castellón II, against 1.73 over 55 for Peña Deportiva.

  • Peña Deportiva concede fewer

    Castellón II concede 1.88 a game, Peña Deportiva 1.09.

  • Castellón II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    75% of Castellón II matches, against 47% for Peña Deportiva. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 15 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Castellón II
Peña Deportiva
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1487.1
ELO
1590.8
52
ELO · Matches
55
1487.1
Current Team ELO
1590.8
1590.8
Current Opponent ELO
1487.1
-103.7
Current ELO Difference
103.7
0.35
Expected score
0.65
52
History Matches
55
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.08
49.10
Overperformance
55.90
-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
2.20
1.80
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
2.00
1.30
Goals for per game
2.40
2.00
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
1.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.01
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
55
1.33
PPG
1.67
36.5%
Win rate
45.5%
23.1%
Draw rate
30.9%
40.4%
Loss rate
23.6%
92.3%
Over 1.5 rate
78.2%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
47.3%
57.7%
Over 3.5 rate
32.7%
2.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
28
1.54
PPG
1.39
42.3%
Win rate
39.3%
26.9%
Draw rate
21.4%
30.8%
Loss rate
39.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
76.9%
Over 2.5 rate
46.4%
57.7%
Over 3.5 rate
32.1%
2.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
26
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.87
Goals for per game
1.73
78.8%
Scoring rate
80.0%
71.2%
BTTS rate
54.5%
2.04
Goals for per game
1.43
92.3%
Scoring rate
75.0%
76.9%
BTTS rate
42.9%
52
History Matches
55
1.87
Goals Mean
1.73
1.45
Goals Std
1.52
78.8%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
53.8%
Scored 2+ rate
50.9%
32.7%
Scored 3+ rate
16.4%
2.04
Venue Goals Mean
1.43
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.88
Goals against per game
1.09
88.5%
Conceding rate
69.1%
1.58
Goals against per game
1.29
84.6%
Conceding rate
67.9%
52
History Matches
55
1.88
Conceded Mean
1.09
1.34
Conceded Std
1.07
55.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.5%
28.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.1%
1.58
Venue Conceded Mean
1.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
11.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
21.2%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
15.4%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
7.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
11.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
21.2%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
15.4%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
7.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
11.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
55
0.98
Result entropy
0.97
2.14
Goal Difference Std
1.99
2.38
Stability score
3.31
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
55
16
Lead Matches
17
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
82.4%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.88
23
Trailing Matches
8
26.1%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
4.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.79
First Half Goals For Mean
0.80
1.06
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
1.08
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
91.65
Rest days
85.71
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
24
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.25
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.63
25
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.32
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.79
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.25
Portability PPG Std
0.58
0.50
Portability PPG Range
1.16
66.75
Portability Score
46.29
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-103.7
PPG-0.35
GF0.14
GA0.79
PPG0.15
PPG-1.20
PPG-1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate1.2%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-3
Goals Mean0.14
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate2.9%
Scored 3+ rate16.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.61
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.52
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.79
Conceded Std0.27
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Conceded 2+ rate30.3%
Conceded 3+ rate19.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.17
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.16
Stability score-0.93
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.16
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches15
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate4.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.58
Second Half Goals For Mean0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.33
Portability PPG Range-0.66
Portability Score20.47
Rest days5.94
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.38
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.47
Current Team ELO-103.7
Current Opponent ELO103.7
Current ELO Difference-207.5
Expected score-0.29
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-6.80
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.34

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Castellón II

W
Elche II1–5Castellón II31 Oct · away
Pick: Castellón II 41% · hit
W
Castellón II2–1La Nucía25 Oct · home
Pick: La Nucía 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Peña Deportiva

L
Peña Deportiva1–3Atlético Baleares1 Nov · home
Pick: Atlético Baleares 52% · hit
L
Poblense1–0Peña Deportiva25 Oct · away
Pick: Poblense 46% · hit
L
Valencia II3–2Peña Deportiva4 Oct · away
Pick: Peña Deportiva 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Castellón II and Peña Deportiva meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Castellón II win 33.3%, draw 21.2%, Peña Deportiva win 45.6%. The pick is Peña Deportiva win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.5%. Both teams to score: 59.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.