ScoreProb
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 Spain Group 3 - 10 2026

Poblense vs Cieza

Poblense Home · Elo 1,618
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cieza Away · Elo 1,628
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Poblense win
Poblense winPick
36.6%
Draw
32.7%
Cieza win
30.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.8%
No54.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.541.1%
Under 2.558.9%

How much we know

Poblense history56 matches
Cieza history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 10:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Poblense are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,618 against 1,628. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Cieza score more

    1.21 goals a game over 56 matches for Poblense, against 1.86 over 56 for Cieza.

  • Defences are close

    Poblense concede 0.64 a game, Cieza 0.71.

  • Cieza games more often go over 2.5 goals

    36% of Poblense matches, against 48% for Cieza. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Poblense
Cieza
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1617.6
ELO
1627.8
56
ELO · Matches
56
1617.6
Current Team ELO
1627.8
1627.8
Current Opponent ELO
1617.6
-10.16
Current ELO Difference
10.16
0.49
Expected score
0.51
56
History Matches
56
0.11
Residual Mean
0.11
57.76
Overperformance
57.88
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
2.40
0.80
Goals for per game
2.60
0.20
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.90
1.30
Goals for per game
1.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.10
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.60
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
56
1.93
PPG
2.07
55.4%
Win rate
60.7%
26.8%
Draw rate
25.0%
17.9%
Loss rate
14.3%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
35.7%
Over 2.5 rate
48.2%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
23.2%
1.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
29
2.14
PPG
1.97
62.1%
Win rate
55.2%
27.6%
Draw rate
31.0%
10.3%
Loss rate
13.8%
44.8%
Over 1.5 rate
72.4%
34.5%
Over 2.5 rate
44.8%
10.3%
Over 3.5 rate
17.2%
1.13
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
29
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.21
Goals for per game
1.86
69.6%
Scoring rate
85.7%
32.1%
BTTS rate
46.4%
1.24
Goals for per game
1.69
72.4%
Scoring rate
75.9%
31.0%
BTTS rate
48.3%
56
History Matches
56
1.21
Goals Mean
1.86
1.06
Goals Std
1.37
69.6%
Scored 1+ rate
85.7%
33.9%
Scored 2+ rate
53.6%
17.9%
Scored 3+ rate
28.6%
1.24
Venue Goals Mean
1.69
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.64
Goals against per game
0.71
44.6%
Conceding rate
55.4%
0.48
Goals against per game
0.72
37.9%
Conceding rate
62.1%
56
History Matches
56
0.64
Conceded Mean
0.71
0.81
Conceded Std
0.82
17.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
10.7%
1.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.6%
0.48
Venue Conceded Mean
0.72
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
55.4%
Clean-sheet rate
44.6%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
62.1%
Clean-sheet rate
37.9%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
55.4%
Clean-sheet rate
44.6%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
62.1%
Clean-sheet rate
37.9%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
55.4%
Clean-sheet rate
44.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
56
0.90
Result entropy
0.84
1.27
Goal Difference Std
1.71
10.08
Stability score
15.57
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
56
17
Lead Matches
25
88.2%
Lead Win Rate
84.0%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.88
12
Trailing Matches
6
25.0%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.05
0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.34
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
85.73
Rest days
77.71
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
35
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.83
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.40
20
Long Rest History Matches
25
2.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.72
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.10
0.73
Portability PPG Range
0.25
62.32
Portability Score
83.05
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-10.16
PPG-0.14
GF-0.64
GA-0.07
PPG0.17
PPG-0.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate10.7%
Failed-to-score rate16.1%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate24.1%
Failed-to-score rate3.4%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.64
Goals Std-0.30
Scored 1+ rate-0.16
Scored 2+ rate-0.20
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean-0.45
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.50
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.07
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate10.7%
Conceded 2+ rate7.1%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.14
History Matches0
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.44
Stability score-5.49
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.63
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate4.2%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.25
Trailing Win Rate8.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.20
Portability PPG Range0.48
Portability Score-20.73
Rest days8.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.57
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.33
Current Team ELO-10.16
Current Opponent ELO10.16
Current ELO Difference-20.32
Expected score-0.03
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Poblense

L
Lorca Deportiva2–0Poblense1 Nov · away
Pick: Poblense 37% · missed
W
Poblense1–0Peña Deportiva25 Oct · home
Pick: Poblense 46% · hit
D
Yeclano2–2Poblense18 Oct · away
Pick: Poblense 42% · missed
L
Atlético Baleares2–1Poblense4 Oct · away
Pick: Atlético Baleares 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Cieza

L
Cieza0–1Deportiva Minera1 Nov · home
Pick: Cieza 45% · missed
W
Ucam Murcia2–4Cieza25 Oct · away
Pick: Cieza 37% · hit
W
Orihuela0–4Cieza4 Oct · away
Pick: Cieza 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Poblense and Cieza meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Poblense win 36.6%, draw 32.7%, Cieza win 30.7%. The pick is Poblense win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.1%. Both teams to score: 45.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.