ScoreProb
Segunda División Spain Round 13 2026

Castellón vs Eibar

Castellón Home · Elo 1,573
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Eibar Away · Elo 1,582
Estadio Municipal Castalia, Castellon Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Castellón win
Castellón winPick
46.4%
Draw
26.3%
Eibar win
27.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.8%
No49.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.3%
Under 2.548.7%

How much we know

Castellón history75 matches
Eibar history75 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Castellón are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,573 against 1,582. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Castellón score more

    1.59 goals a game over 75 matches for Castellón, against 1.23 over 75 for Eibar.

  • Eibar concede fewer

    Castellón concede 1.29 a game, Eibar 0.91.

  • Castellón games more often go over 2.5 goals

    52% of Castellón matches, against 40% for Eibar. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Castellón
Eibar
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1572.7
ELO
1581.8
75
ELO · Matches
75
1572.7
Current Team ELO
1581.8
1581.8
Current Opponent ELO
1572.7
-9.06
Current ELO Difference
9.06
0.49
Expected score
0.51
75
History Matches
75
0.04
Residual Mean
0.05
52.94
Overperformance
54.00
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.00
0.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.50
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.10
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.86
Overall performance9 signals
90
75
Matches
75
1.53
PPG
1.55
41.3%
Win rate
41.3%
29.3%
Draw rate
30.7%
29.3%
Loss rate
28.0%
76.0%
Over 1.5 rate
58.7%
52.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
38.7%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
39
1.97
PPG
1.15
57.6%
Win rate
25.6%
24.2%
Draw rate
38.5%
18.2%
Loss rate
35.9%
84.8%
Over 1.5 rate
53.8%
51.5%
Over 2.5 rate
28.2%
39.4%
Over 3.5 rate
15.4%
1.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
33
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.59
Goals for per game
1.23
78.7%
Scoring rate
69.3%
62.7%
BTTS rate
41.3%
1.97
Goals for per game
0.87
87.9%
Scoring rate
59.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
35.9%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
75
History Matches
75
1.59
Goals Mean
1.23
1.23
Goals Std
1.15
78.7%
Scored 1+ rate
69.3%
48.0%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
22.7%
Scored 3+ rate
14.7%
1.97
Venue Goals Mean
0.87
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.29
Goals against per game
0.91
74.7%
Conceding rate
57.3%
1.18
Goals against per game
0.97
75.8%
Conceding rate
59.0%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.50
0.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
75
History Matches
75
1.29
Conceded Mean
0.91
1.12
Conceded Std
1.00
32.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.0%
18.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.7%
1.18
Venue Conceded Mean
0.97
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.3%
Clean-sheet rate
42.7%
21.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.7%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
41.0%
12.1%
Failed-to-score rate
41.0%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.3%
Clean-sheet rate
42.7%
21.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.7%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
41.0%
12.1%
Failed-to-score rate
41.0%
25.3%
Clean-sheet rate
42.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
75
History Matches
75
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.47
Goal Difference Std
1.51
1.27
Stability score
1.32
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
75
Eligible Matches
75
26
Lead Matches
28
76.9%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.82
15
Trailing Matches
16
26.7%
Non-loss rate
31.3%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
18.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
75
Halftime Coverage Matches
75
0.81
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.39
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.10
Rest days
75.19
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.33
39
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.62
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.60
31
Long Rest History Matches
31
1.58
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.45
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.20
Portability PPG Std
0.34
0.47
Portability PPG Range
1.00
71.12
Portability Score
59.50
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
75
Clean History Matches
75
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-9.06
PPG-0.01
GF0.36
GA0.39
PPG0.50
PPG0.82
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.36
Goals Std0.08
Scored 1+ rate9.3%
Scored 2+ rate14.7%
Scored 3+ rate8.0%
Venue Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.22
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.39
Conceded Std0.12
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate8.0%
Conceded 3+ rate12.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.31
History Matches0
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.04
Stability score-0.06
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.46
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate1.9%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate-0.12
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.14
Portability PPG Range-0.53
Portability Score11.62
Rest days-0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.58
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.02
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.13
Current Team ELO-9.06
Current Opponent ELO9.06
Current ELO Difference-18.12
Expected score-0.03
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-1.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Castellón

D
Burgos1–1Castellón1 Nov · away
Pick: Castellón 39% · missed
W
Conquense0–3Castellón29 Oct · away
Pick: Castellón 46% · hit
W
Castellón4–0Sporting Gijon25 Oct · home
Pick: Castellón 41% · hit
W
Las Palmas0–3Castellón17 Oct · away
Pick: Las Palmas 44% · missed
D
Castellón1–1AD Ceuta FC4 Oct · home
Pick: Castellón 57% · missed

Eibar

D
Eibar1–1Almeria31 Oct · home
Pick: Almeria 41% · missed
L
Cordoba2–0Eibar24 Oct · away
Pick: Cordoba 43% · hit
D
Eibar1–1Mallorca17 Oct · home
Pick: Eibar 45% · missed
L
Oviedo3–1Eibar12 Oct · away
Pick: Oviedo 34% · hit
W
FC Andorra0–1Eibar30 Aug · away
Pick: FC Andorra 51% · missed

About this match

Castellón and Eibar meet in Segunda División on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:30 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Municipal Castalia, Castellon. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Castellón win 46.4%, draw 26.3%, Eibar win 27.3%. The pick is Castellón win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.3%. Both teams to score: 50.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.