ScoreProb
Segunda División Spain Round 13 2026

Burgos vs Celta de Vigo II

Burgos Home · Elo 1,579
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Celta de Vigo II Away · Elo 1,584
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Burgos win
Burgos winPick
40.2%
Draw
26.6%
Celta de Vigo II win
33.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.6%
No50.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.0%
Under 2.557.0%

How much we know

Burgos history74 matches
Celta de Vigo II history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Burgos are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,579 against 1,584. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Celta de Vigo II score more

    1.16 goals a game over 74 matches for Burgos, against 1.54 over 65 for Celta de Vigo II.

  • Burgos concede fewer

    Burgos concede 0.91 a game, Celta de Vigo II 1.22.

  • Celta de Vigo II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    36% of Burgos matches, against 49% for Celta de Vigo II. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Burgos
Celta de Vigo II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1578.9
ELO
1583.5
74
ELO · Matches
65
1578.9
Current Team ELO
1583.5
1583.5
Current Opponent ELO
1578.9
-4.60
Current ELO Difference
4.60
0.49
Expected score
0.51
74
History Matches
65
0.06
Residual Mean
0.06
54.47
Overperformance
54.54
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.20
0.80
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.70
1.00
Goals for per game
1.70
0.60
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.62
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
74
Matches
65
1.65
PPG
1.63
45.9%
Win rate
44.6%
27.0%
Draw rate
29.2%
27.0%
Loss rate
26.2%
56.8%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
36.5%
Over 2.5 rate
49.2%
18.9%
Over 3.5 rate
21.5%
1.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
34
1.82
PPG
1.56
51.3%
Win rate
41.2%
28.2%
Draw rate
32.4%
20.5%
Loss rate
26.5%
64.1%
Over 1.5 rate
79.4%
38.5%
Over 2.5 rate
44.1%
23.1%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
39
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.16
Goals for per game
1.54
67.6%
Scoring rate
75.4%
40.5%
BTTS rate
58.5%
1.38
Goals for per game
1.38
74.4%
Scoring rate
67.6%
46.2%
BTTS rate
52.9%
1.50
Goals for per game
2.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
74
History Matches
65
1.16
Goals Mean
1.54
1.10
Goals Std
1.30
67.6%
Scored 1+ rate
75.4%
32.4%
Scored 2+ rate
44.6%
12.2%
Scored 3+ rate
21.5%
1.38
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.91
Goals against per game
1.22
58.1%
Conceding rate
75.4%
0.90
Goals against per game
1.29
61.5%
Conceding rate
73.5%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
74
History Matches
65
0.91
Conceded Mean
1.22
0.92
Conceded Std
1.06
27.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.8%
5.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.2%
0.90
Venue Conceded Mean
1.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
41.9%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
24.6%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
25.6%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
41.9%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
24.6%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
25.6%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
41.9%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
74
History Matches
65
0.97
Result entropy
0.97
1.35
Goal Difference Std
1.63
3.10
Stability score
2.57
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
74
Eligible Matches
65
18
Lead Matches
15
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
73.3%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.82
11
Trailing Matches
16
0.0%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
74
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.58
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.08
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.83
Rest days
74.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
43
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.60
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.59
26
Long Rest History Matches
32
1.77
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.72
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
6
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.36
Portability PPG Std
0.26
1.08
Portability PPG Range
0.71
57.96
Portability Score
65.68
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
74
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-4.60
PPG0.02
GF-0.38
GA-0.31
PPG-0.50
PPG0.26
PPG-0.80
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate17.3%
Failed-to-score rate7.8%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate12.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches9
Goals Mean-0.38
Goals Std-0.20
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.62
History Matches9
Conceded Mean-0.31
Conceded Std-0.14
Clean-sheet rate17.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.25
History Matches9
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.28
Stability score0.53
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.24
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate4.4%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.38
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range0.38
Portability Score-7.72
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.01
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.05
Current Team ELO-4.60
Current Opponent ELO4.60
Current ELO Difference-9.19
Expected score-0.01
History Matches9
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Burgos

D
Burgos1–1Castellón1 Nov · home
Pick: Castellón 39% · missed
W
Laredo2–4Burgos29 Oct · away
Pick: Burgos 42% · hit
W
FC Andorra2–3Burgos26 Oct · away
Pick: FC Andorra 47% · missed
W
Burgos1–0Sabadell18 Oct · home
Pick: Burgos 37% · hit
L
Burgos0–1Granada CF12 Oct · home
Pick: Burgos 37% · missed

Celta de Vigo II

D
Celta de Vigo II2–2Cordoba31 Oct · home
Pick: Celta de Vigo II 47% · missed
L
Girona5–1Celta de Vigo II24 Oct · away
Pick: Celta de Vigo II 44% · missed
D
Celta de Vigo II1–1Tenerife19 Oct · home
Pick: Tenerife 45% · missed
L
Sporting Gijon3–2Celta de Vigo II4 Oct · away
Pick: Sporting Gijon 40% · hit
L
Celta de Vigo II1–2Castellón31 Aug · home
Pick: Celta de Vigo II 46% · missed

About this match

Burgos and Celta de Vigo II meet in Segunda División on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Burgos win 40.2%, draw 26.6%, Celta de Vigo II win 33.3%. The pick is Burgos win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.0%. Both teams to score: 49.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.