ScoreProb
Serie C - Girone C Italy Girone C - 13 2026

Catania vs Sorrento

Catania Home · Elo 1,565
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sorrento Away · Elo 1,443
Stadio Angelo Massimino, Catania Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Catania win
Catania winPick
45.6%
Draw
28.4%
Sorrento win
26.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.0%
No55.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.8%
Under 2.553.2%

How much we know

Catania history63 matches
Sorrento history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Catania are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Catania are rated 122 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,565 against 1,443. On rating alone Catania would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Catania score more

    1.38 goals a game over 63 matches for Catania, against 1.02 over 60 for Sorrento.

  • Catania concede fewer

    Catania concede 0.86 a game, Sorrento 1.48.

  • Sorrento games more often go over 2.5 goals

    37% of Catania matches, against 48% for Sorrento. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Catania
Sorrento
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1564.6
ELO
1442.9
63
ELO · Matches
60
1564.6
Current Team ELO
1442.9
1442.9
Current Opponent ELO
1564.6
121.7
Current ELO Difference
-121.7
0.67
Expected score
0.33
63
History Matches
60
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.05
53.35
Overperformance
46.33
-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.20
0.80
Goals for per game
0.60
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.00
0.90
Goals for per game
0.90
1.70
Goals against per game
1.40
10.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
60
1.75
PPG
1.00
47.6%
Win rate
23.3%
31.7%
Draw rate
30.0%
20.6%
Loss rate
46.7%
69.8%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
36.5%
Over 2.5 rate
48.3%
17.5%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
31
2.00
PPG
0.81
56.7%
Win rate
19.4%
30.0%
Draw rate
22.6%
13.3%
Loss rate
58.1%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
67.7%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
41.9%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
22.6%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
30
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.38
Goals for per game
1.02
77.8%
Scoring rate
61.7%
44.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.67
Goals for per game
0.65
83.3%
Scoring rate
45.2%
36.7%
BTTS rate
35.5%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
63
History Matches
60
1.38
Goals Mean
1.02
1.20
Goals Std
1.09
77.8%
Scored 1+ rate
61.7%
36.5%
Scored 2+ rate
30.0%
14.3%
Scored 3+ rate
5.0%
1.67
Venue Goals Mean
0.65
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.86
Goals against per game
1.48
55.6%
Conceding rate
78.3%
0.60
Goals against per game
1.65
40.0%
Conceding rate
77.4%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
63
History Matches
60
0.86
Conceded Mean
1.48
0.99
Conceded Std
1.18
20.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.0%
6.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.7%
0.60
Venue Conceded Mean
1.65
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
38.3%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
54.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
38.3%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
54.8%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
60
0.95
Result entropy
0.96
1.66
Goal Difference Std
1.72
5.04
Stability score
3.84
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
60
21
Lead Matches
13
90.5%
Lead Win Rate
61.5%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.67
11
Trailing Matches
17
18.2%
Non-loss rate
5.9%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.90
Rest days
75.77
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
35
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.80
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.03
24
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.54
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.94
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
7
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.36
Portability PPG Std
0.16
1.00
Portability PPG Range
0.36
58.08
Portability Score
75.34
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO121.7
PPG0.75
GF0.36
GA-0.63
PPG-3.00
PPG1.19
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate22.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate37.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.38
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.36
Goals Std0.11
Scored 1+ rate16.1%
Scored 2+ rate6.5%
Scored 3+ rate9.3%
Venue Goals Mean1.02
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.63
Conceded Std-0.19
Clean-sheet rate22.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.24
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-1.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.01
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.06
Stability score1.20
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.03
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate28.9%
Lead Points Retention0.27
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate12.3%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.49
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.20
Portability PPG Range0.64
Portability Score-17.25
Rest days1.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match2.33
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.78
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.60
Current Team ELO121.7
Current Opponent ELO-121.7
Current ELO Difference243.4
Expected score0.34
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance7.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Catania

L
Audace Cerignola1–0Catania31 Oct · away
Pick: Audace Cerignola 48% · hit
W
Catania6–0Giugliano25 Oct · home
Pick: Catania 43% · hit
L
Potenza2–1Catania17 Oct · away
Pick: Potenza 53% · hit
L
SS Monopoli2–0Catania29 Aug · away
Pick: Catania 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sorrento

L
Sorrento1–2Team Altamura31 Oct · home
Pick: Sorrento 43% · missed
L
Savoia2–0Sorrento27 Oct · away
Pick: Savoia 54% · hit
D
Inter U231–1Sorrento24 Oct · away
Pick: Inter U23 41% · missed
D
Sorrento0–0Casertana18 Oct · home
Pick: Sorrento 46% · missed
W
Sorrento1–0Crotone29 Aug · home
Pick: Crotone 41% · missed

About this match

Catania and Sorrento meet in Serie C - Girone C on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Angelo Massimino, Catania. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Catania win 45.6%, draw 28.4%, Sorrento win 26.0%. The pick is Catania win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.8%. Both teams to score: 45.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.