ScoreProb
Serie C - Girone C Italy Girone C - 13 2026

Savoia vs Potenza

Savoia Home · Elo 1,615
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Potenza Away · Elo 1,513
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Potenza win
Savoia win
36.0%
Draw
24.4%
Potenza winPick
39.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.8%
No43.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.8%
Under 2.543.2%

How much we know

Savoia history54 matches
Potenza history69 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Potenza are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Savoia are rated 102 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,615 against 1,513. On rating alone Savoia would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Savoia score more

    1.89 goals a game over 54 matches for Savoia, against 1.49 over 69 for Potenza.

  • Savoia concede fewer

    Savoia concede 1.09 a game, Potenza 1.49.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    57% of Savoia matches, against 59% for Potenza. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Savoia
Potenza
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1614.6
ELO
1512.8
54
ELO · Matches
69
1614.6
Current Team ELO
1512.8
1512.8
Current Opponent ELO
1614.6
101.8
Current ELO Difference
-101.8
0.64
Expected score
0.36
54
History Matches
69
0.10
Residual Mean
0.01
57.31
Overperformance
51.11
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.80
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
2.00
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.50
2.10
Goals for per game
1.70
1.20
Goals against per game
1.30
70.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.42
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.27
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.24
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
69
1.96
PPG
1.33
57.4%
Win rate
34.8%
24.1%
Draw rate
29.0%
18.5%
Loss rate
36.2%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
73.9%
57.4%
Over 2.5 rate
59.4%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
40.6%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
33
2.35
PPG
0.76
69.2%
Win rate
18.2%
26.9%
Draw rate
21.2%
3.8%
Loss rate
60.6%
88.5%
Over 1.5 rate
69.7%
53.8%
Over 2.5 rate
54.5%
26.9%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
26
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.89
Goals for per game
1.49
92.6%
Scoring rate
71.0%
61.1%
BTTS rate
53.6%
2.04
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
60.6%
57.7%
BTTS rate
48.5%
2.00
Goals for per game
4.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
54
History Matches
69
1.89
Goals Mean
1.49
1.13
Goals Std
1.29
92.6%
Scored 1+ rate
71.0%
59.3%
Scored 2+ rate
46.4%
27.8%
Scored 3+ rate
23.2%
2.04
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.09
Goals against per game
1.49
66.7%
Conceding rate
73.9%
0.77
Goals against per game
1.82
57.7%
Conceding rate
81.8%
3.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
54
History Matches
69
1.09
Conceded Mean
1.49
1.19
Conceded Std
1.25
22.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.4%
13.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.8%
0.77
Venue Conceded Mean
1.82
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
7.4%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
42.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
39.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
7.4%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
42.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
39.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
69
0.89
Result entropy
1.00
1.70
Goal Difference Std
1.72
11.37
Stability score
0.41
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
69
23
Lead Matches
21
82.6%
Lead Win Rate
81.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.87
12
Trailing Matches
16
83.3%
Non-loss rate
18.8%
33.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.80
First Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
1.09
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.90
Rest days
78.77
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
32
Normal Rest History Matches
43
2.03
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
17
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.82
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.45
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.00
7
Competition Season Count
9
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.08
Portability PPG Std
0.36
0.15
Portability PPG Range
0.92
86.68
Portability Score
57.81
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
69
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO101.8
PPG0.63
GF0.40
GA-0.40
PPG-3.00
PPG1.59
PPG0.40
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-15
Clean-sheet rate7.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate24.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.39
History Matches-15
Goals Mean0.40
Goals Std-0.16
Scored 1+ rate21.6%
Scored 2+ rate12.9%
Scored 3+ rate4.6%
Venue Goals Mean1.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.72
History Matches-15
Conceded Mean-0.40
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate7.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.24
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-1.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.06
History Matches-15
Result entropy-0.11
Goal Difference Std-0.02
Stability score10.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.44
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.38
Eligible Matches-15
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate1.7%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate64.6%
Trailing Win Rate33.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-15
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.34
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.34
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-4.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.29
Portability PPG Range-0.77
Portability Score28.86
Rest days-1.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.75
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.71
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.37
Current Team ELO101.8
Current Opponent ELO-101.8
Current ELO Difference203.6
Expected score0.28
History Matches-15
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Savoia

D
Salernitana1–1Savoia1 Nov · away
Pick: Salernitana 42% · missed
W
Savoia2–0Sorrento27 Oct · home
Pick: Savoia 54% · hit
D
Savoia1–1Cosenza24 Oct · home
Pick: Savoia 49% · missed
L
Audace Cerignola4–0Savoia18 Oct · away
Pick: Audace Cerignola 57% · hit
L
Savoia1–2Casertana29 Aug · home
Pick: Savoia 43% · missed

Potenza

W
Potenza4–2Crotone1 Nov · home
Pick: Potenza 57% · hit
W
Potenza2–1Bari27 Oct · home
Pick: Potenza 53% · hit
D
Team Altamura2–2Potenza23 Oct · away
Pick: Potenza 49% · missed
W
Potenza2–1Catania17 Oct · home
Pick: Potenza 53% · hit
W
Potenza4–2AZ Picerno4 Oct · home
Pick: Potenza 59% · hit

About this match

Savoia and Potenza meet in Serie C - Girone C on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Savoia win 36.0%, draw 24.4%, Potenza win 39.6%. The pick is Potenza win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.8%. Both teams to score: 56.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.