ScoreProb
Canadian Premier League Canada Semi-finals 2026

Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec

Cavalry FC Home · Elo 1,590
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Supra du Quebec Away · Elo 1,471
ATCO Field Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cavalry FC win
Cavalry FC winPick
73.5%
Draw
15.1%
Supra du Quebec win
11.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.7%
No45.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.9%
Under 2.536.1%

How much we know

Cavalry FC history43 matches
Supra du Quebec history19 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (73.5%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Cavalry FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Cavalry FC are rated 118 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,590 against 1,471. On rating alone Cavalry FC would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Cavalry FC score more

    1.79 goals a game over 43 matches for Cavalry FC, against 1.58 over 19 for Supra du Quebec.

  • Cavalry FC concede fewer

    Cavalry FC concede 0.88 a game, Supra du Quebec 1.84.

  • Supra du Quebec games more often go over 2.5 goals

    51% of Cavalry FC matches, against 63% for Supra du Quebec. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cavalry FC
Supra du Quebec@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1589.6
ELO
1471.2
43
ELO · Matches
19
1589.6
Current Team ELO
1471.2
1471.2
Current Opponent ELO
1589.6
118.4
Current ELO Difference
-118.4
0.66
Expected score
0.34
43
History Matches
19
0.10
Residual Mean
-0.07
56.87
Overperformance
46.60
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
0.60
2.60
Goals for per game
1.60
0.80
Goals against per game
2.00
80.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.20
1.90
Goals for per game
1.80
1.10
Goals against per game
2.10
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.37
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
43
Matches
19
1.81
PPG
1.05
51.2%
Win rate
26.3%
27.9%
Draw rate
26.3%
20.9%
Loss rate
47.4%
79.1%
Over 1.5 rate
84.2%
51.2%
Over 2.5 rate
63.2%
27.9%
Over 3.5 rate
42.1%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
9
2.14
PPG
1.00
61.9%
Win rate
22.2%
28.6%
Draw rate
33.3%
9.5%
Loss rate
44.4%
90.5%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
61.9%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
21
History Matches
9
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.79
Goals for per game
1.58
79.1%
Scoring rate
84.2%
53.5%
BTTS rate
84.2%
2.33
Goals for per game
1.78
90.5%
Scoring rate
88.9%
61.9%
BTTS rate
88.9%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.31
82.4%
Scoring rate
81.3%
47.1%
BTTS rate
81.3%
43
History Matches
19
1.79
Goals Mean
1.58
1.53
Goals Std
1.09
79.1%
Scored 1+ rate
84.2%
46.5%
Scored 2+ rate
42.1%
30.2%
Scored 3+ rate
31.6%
2.33
Venue Goals Mean
1.78
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.88
Goals against per game
1.84
67.4%
Conceding rate
100.0%
0.76
Goals against per game
2.11
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
0.59
Goals against per game
1.88
58.8%
Conceding rate
100.0%
43
History Matches
19
0.88
Conceded Mean
1.84
0.87
Conceded Std
1.27
11.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.1%
7.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.1%
0.76
Venue Conceded Mean
2.11
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.6%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.9%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
9.5%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
41.2%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
32.6%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.9%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
9.5%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
32.6%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
43
History Matches
19
0.93
Result entropy
0.96
2.00
Goal Difference Std
1.45
6.57
Stability score
3.83
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
43
Eligible Matches
19
13
Lead Matches
4
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.58
8
Trailing Matches
6
62.5%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
19
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
1.23
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.16
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.02
Rest days
76.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
25
Normal Rest History Matches
10
1.72
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.60
16
Long Rest History Matches
6
1.81
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
17
Matches
16
2.18
PPG
0.81
64.7%
Win rate
18.8%
23.5%
Draw rate
25.0%
11.8%
Loss rate
56.3%
76.5%
Over 1.5 rate
81.3%
47.1%
Over 2.5 rate
56.3%
23.5%
Over 3.5 rate
31.3%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.32
17
Current Competition Matches
16
2.18
Current Competition PPG
0.81
1.41
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.56
5
Competition Season Count
2
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.76
0.84
Portability PPG Range
1.52
62.16
Portability Score
39.67
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
43
Clean History Matches
19
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO118.4
PPG0.76
GF0.21
GA-0.96
PPG1.36
PPG1.14
PPG2.00
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches24
Clean-sheet rate32.6%
Failed-to-score rate5.1%
History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate33.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches24
Goals Mean0.21
Goals Std0.44
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate4.4%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.56
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.50
History Matches24
Conceded Mean-0.96
Conceded Std-0.40
Clean-sheet rate32.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.30
Conceded 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Conceded Mean-1.35
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.18
History Matches24
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.55
Stability score2.75
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.54
Eligible Matches24
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate50.0%
Lead Points Retention0.42
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate12.5%
Trailing Win Rate8.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches24
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.36
Second Half Goals For Mean0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.60
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG1.36
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.97
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.46
Portability PPG Range-0.68
Portability Score22.49
Rest days0.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match2.50
Normal Rest History Matches15
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.12
Long Rest History Matches10
Long Rest Points Per Match1.31
Current Team ELO118.4
Current Opponent ELO-118.4
Current ELO Difference236.8
Expected score0.33
History Matches24
Residual Mean0.17
Overperformance10.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Cavalry FC

L
Supra du Quebec2–1Cavalry FC1 Nov · away
Pick: Cavalry FC 64% · missed
W
Cavalry FC1–0Vancouver FC25 Oct · home
Pick: Cavalry FC 64% · hit
W
Cavalry FC4–2Pacific FC17 Oct · home
Pick: Cavalry FC 80% · hit
D
HFX Wanderers FC2–2Cavalry FC12 Oct · away
Pick: Cavalry FC 53% · missed
W
Cavalry FC1–0Vancouver FC29 Aug · home
Pick: Cavalry FC 65% · hit

Supra du Quebec

W
Supra du Quebec2–1Cavalry FC1 Nov · home
Pick: Cavalry FC 64% · missed
W
HFX Wanderers FC3–4Supra du Quebec25 Oct · away
Pick: HFX Wanderers FC 52% · missed
W
Supra du Quebec3–0York United16 Oct · home
Pick: Supra du Quebec 54% · hit
W
York United1–2Supra du Quebec7 Oct · away
Pick: York United 43% · missed
W
Supra du Quebec5–0Pacific FC4 Oct · home
Pick: Supra du Quebec 53% · hit

About this match

Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec meet in Canadian Premier League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at ATCO Field. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Cavalry FC win 73.5%, draw 15.1%, Supra du Quebec win 11.4%. The pick is Cavalry FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.9%. Both teams to score: 54.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.