CD Argual W vs Madrid CFF W
Match result probability Model pick: CD Argual W win
CD Argual W winPick
37.5%
Draw
30.3%
Madrid CFF W win
32.1%
No match played
If the match is played on a new date, this page updates by itself.
Both teams to score
Yes54.8%
No45.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.556.7%
Under 2.543.3%
How much we know
CD Argual W history0 matches
Madrid CFF W history44 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 19:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this match
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,668 matches.
Why CD Argual W are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
CD Argual W are rated 37 Elo points higher
Elo 1,500 against 1,463. On rating alone CD Argual W would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Madrid CFF W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1500.0
ELO
1462.8
0
ELO · Matches
44
1500.0
Current Team ELO
1462.8
1462.8
Current Opponent ELO
1500.0
37.18
Current ELO Difference
-37.18
0.55
Expected score
0.45
0
History Matches
44
—
Residual Mean
-0.04
—
Overperformance
47.13
—
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals 160
0
Matches
5
—
PPG
1.20
—
Goals for per game
1.20
—
Goals against per game
2.40
—
Win rate
40.0%
0
Matches
10
—
PPG
1.00
—
Goals for per game
1.30
—
Goals against per game
2.10
—
Win rate
30.0%
—
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.73
—
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.37
—
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.64
Overall performance9 signals 90
0
Matches
44
—
PPG
1.18
—
Win rate
34.1%
—
Draw rate
15.9%
—
Loss rate
50.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
84.1%
—
Over 2.5 rate
56.8%
—
Over 3.5 rate
38.6%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.67
Venue performance10 signals 100
0
Matches
22
—
PPG
1.09
—
Win rate
31.8%
—
Draw rate
13.6%
—
Loss rate
54.5%
—
Over 1.5 rate
86.4%
—
Over 2.5 rate
77.3%
—
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.99
0
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
—
Goals for per game
1.43
—
Scoring rate
68.2%
—
BTTS rate
54.5%
—
Goals for per game
1.64
—
Scoring rate
72.7%
—
BTTS rate
72.7%
0
History Matches
44
—
Goals Mean
1.43
—
Goals Std
1.44
—
Scored 1+ rate
68.2%
—
Scored 2+ rate
36.4%
—
Scored 3+ rate
22.7%
—
Venue Goals Mean
1.64
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
—
Goals against per game
2.11
—
Conceding rate
81.8%
—
Goals against per game
2.68
—
Conceding rate
90.9%
0
History Matches
44
—
Conceded Mean
2.11
—
Conceded Std
2.19
—
Conceded 2+ rate
54.5%
—
Conceded 3+ rate
27.3%
—
Venue Conceded Mean
2.68
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
—
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
—
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
—
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
—
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
—
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
—
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
—
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
—
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
—
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
0
History Matches
44
—
Result entropy
0.92
—
Goal Difference Std
2.67
—
Stability score
8.44
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
0
Eligible Matches
44
0
Lead Matches
11
—
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.85
0
Trailing Matches
20
—
Non-loss rate
15.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
44
—
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
—
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
—
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
—
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.20
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
Rest days
157.2
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
0
Normal Rest History Matches
16
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.56
0
Long Rest History Matches
27
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
0
Competition Season Count
2
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.08
—
Portability PPG Range
0.16
—
Portability Score
86.07
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
0
Clean History Matches
44
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO37.18
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-44
History Matches-22
History Matches-44
History Matches-44
History Matches-44
Eligible Matches-44
Lead Matches-11
Trailing Matches-20
Halftime Coverage Matches-44
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-16
Long Rest History Matches-27
Current Team ELO37.18
Current Opponent ELO-37.18
Current ELO Difference74.36
Expected score0.11
History Matches-44
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
CD Argual W
No earlier results with our pick yet
Madrid CFF W
W
Madrid CFF W2–1Deportivo de La Coruña W31 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo de La Coruña W 41% · missed D
Eibar W2–2Madrid CFF W25 Oct · away
Pick: Eibar W 44% · missed L
Atletico Madrid W4–0Madrid CFF W18 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico Madrid W 69% · hit W
Madrid CFF W3–1Granada29 Aug · home
Pick: Granada 41% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
CD Argual W and Madrid CFF W were due to play in Copa de la Reina on Wednesday 4 November 2026, but the match was not played.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.