ScoreProb
Liga Nacional Honduras Round 14 2026

CD Olimpia vs Olancho

CD Olimpia Home · Elo 1,637
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Olancho Away · Elo 1,520
Estadio Nacional Chelato Ucles, Tegucigalpa Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: CD Olimpia win
CD Olimpia winPick
56.2%
Draw
25.2%
Olancho win
18.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.8%
No47.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.2%
Under 2.544.8%

How much we know

CD Olimpia history65 matches
Olancho history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 16 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 01:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why CD Olimpia are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • CD Olimpia are rated 117 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,637 against 1,520. On rating alone CD Olimpia would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • CD Olimpia score more

    1.86 goals a game over 65 matches for CD Olimpia, against 1.36 over 53 for Olancho.

  • Defences are close

    CD Olimpia concede 1.12 a game, Olancho 1.25.

  • CD Olimpia games more often go over 2.5 goals

    57% of CD Olimpia matches, against 43% for Olancho. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
CD Olimpia
Olancho
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1637.3
ELO
1519.9
65
ELO · Matches
53
1637.3
Current Team ELO
1519.9
1519.9
Current Opponent ELO
1637.3
117.4
Current ELO Difference
-117.4
0.66
Expected score
0.34
65
History Matches
53
0.10
Residual Mean
0.02
57.39
Overperformance
51.21
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.80
2.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
0.60
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.30
1.90
Goals for per game
1.00
1.10
Goals against per game
1.20
70.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.63
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.60
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.08
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
53
1.91
PPG
1.34
55.4%
Win rate
32.1%
24.6%
Draw rate
37.7%
20.0%
Loss rate
30.2%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
77.4%
56.9%
Over 2.5 rate
43.4%
33.8%
Over 3.5 rate
26.4%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
27
2.30
PPG
1.07
70.0%
Win rate
25.9%
20.0%
Draw rate
29.6%
10.0%
Loss rate
44.4%
86.7%
Over 1.5 rate
74.1%
56.7%
Over 2.5 rate
40.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
30
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.86
Goals for per game
1.36
86.2%
Scoring rate
79.2%
60.0%
BTTS rate
60.4%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.19
93.3%
Scoring rate
74.1%
46.7%
BTTS rate
51.9%
2.25
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
65
History Matches
53
1.86
Goals Mean
1.36
1.33
Goals Std
1.20
86.2%
Scored 1+ rate
79.2%
60.0%
Scored 2+ rate
32.1%
24.6%
Scored 3+ rate
15.1%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.19
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.12
Goals against per game
1.25
70.8%
Conceding rate
77.4%
0.87
Goals against per game
1.30
53.3%
Conceding rate
74.1%
0.75
Goals against per game
0.50
75.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
65
History Matches
53
1.12
Conceded Mean
1.25
1.13
Conceded Std
0.95
26.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.8%
7.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.4%
0.87
Venue Conceded Mean
1.30
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
46.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
6.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
46.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
6.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
53
0.90
Result entropy
1.00
1.83
Goal Difference Std
1.54
9.50
Stability score
0.42
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
53
27
Lead Matches
16
81.5%
Lead Win Rate
56.3%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.69
12
Trailing Matches
15
33.3%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
1.11
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.09
Rest days
76.09
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
13
Short Rest History Matches
8
1.38
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.25
26
Normal Rest History Matches
19
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.05
25
Long Rest History Matches
25
2.16
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.52
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.50
PPG
2.00
75.0%
Win rate
50.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.50
Current Competition PPG
2.00
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
8
Competition Season Count
3
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.42
Portability PPG Std
0.33
1.15
Portability PPG Range
0.82
54.40
Portability Score
59.97
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO117.4
PPG0.57
GF0.50
GA-0.12
PPG0.50
PPG1.23
PPG0.80
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate6.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate20.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches12
Goals Mean0.50
Goals Std0.14
Scored 1+ rate6.9%
Scored 2+ rate27.9%
Scored 3+ rate9.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.81
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.50
History Matches12
Conceded Mean-0.12
Conceded Std0.18
Clean-sheet rate6.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.43
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.04
History Matches12
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std0.30
Stability score9.09
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.52
Eligible Matches12
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate25.2%
Lead Points Retention0.16
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate10.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches12
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.09
Portability PPG Range0.34
Portability Score-5.57
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match0.13
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.95
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.64
Current Team ELO117.4
Current Opponent ELO-117.4
Current ELO Difference234.8
Expected score0.33
History Matches12
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance6.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

CD Olimpia

W
Atlético Choloma0–3CD Olimpia1 Nov · away
Pick: CD Olimpia 73% · hit
D
CD Olimpia2–2CS Cartagines29 Oct · home
Pick: CD Olimpia 47% · missed
W
Lobos Upnfm0–1CD Olimpia25 Oct · away
Pick: CD Olimpia 67% · hit
L
CS Cartagines1–0CD Olimpia22 Oct · away
Pick: CS Cartagines 37% · hit
W
CD Olimpia2–1Real Espana16 Oct · home
Pick: CD Olimpia 50% · hit

Olancho

W
Olancho4–1Platense FC2 Nov · home
Pick: Olancho 61% · hit
D
Olancho3–3Estrella Roja24 Oct · home
Pick: Olancho 67% · missed
L
CD Marathon2–1Olancho15 Oct · away
Pick: CD Marathon 47% · hit
L
CD Motagua2–1Olancho30 Aug · away
Pick: CD Motagua 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

CD Olimpia and Olancho meet in Liga Nacional on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 01:30 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Nacional Chelato Ucles, Tegucigalpa. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: CD Olimpia win 56.2%, draw 25.2%, Olancho win 18.6%. The pick is CD Olimpia win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.2%. Both teams to score: 52.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.