Juticalpa vs Estrella Roja
Juticalpa
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Estrella Roja
Match result probability Model pick: Juticalpa win
Juticalpa winPick
58.1%
Draw
19.3%
Estrella Roja win
22.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes50.8%
No49.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.551.6%
Under 2.548.4%
How much we know
Juticalpa history45 matches
Estrella Roja history0 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Juticalpa
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 20:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 21:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Juticalpa are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Estrella Roja are rated 69 Elo points higher
Elo 1,500 against 1,431. On rating alone Estrella Roja would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Juticalpa
Estrella Roja
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1430.6
ELO
1500.0
45
ELO · Matches
0
1430.6
Current Team ELO
1500.0
1500.0
Current Opponent ELO
1430.6
-69.39
Current ELO Difference
69.39
0.40
Expected score
0.60
45
History Matches
0
-0.07
Residual Mean
—
45.46
Overperformance
—
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
—
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
0
0.60
PPG
—
0.80
Goals for per game
—
2.40
Goals against per game
—
20.0%
Win rate
—
10
Matches
0
0.80
PPG
—
0.80
Goals for per game
—
2.00
Goals against per game
—
20.0%
Win rate
—
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
—
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std
—
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
—
1.61
Recent 10 Conceded Std
—
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
—
1.66
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
—
Overall performance9 signals 90
45
Matches
0
1.02
PPG
—
24.4%
Win rate
—
28.9%
Draw rate
—
46.7%
Loss rate
—
68.9%
Over 1.5 rate
—
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
—
31.1%
Over 3.5 rate
—
2.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
Venue performance10 signals 100
25
Matches
0
1.04
PPG
—
28.0%
Win rate
—
20.0%
Draw rate
—
52.0%
Loss rate
—
68.0%
Over 1.5 rate
—
44.0%
Over 2.5 rate
—
28.0%
Over 3.5 rate
—
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
25
History Matches
0
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
0.84
Goals for per game
—
68.9%
Scoring rate
—
46.7%
BTTS rate
—
0.80
Goals for per game
—
72.0%
Scoring rate
—
48.0%
BTTS rate
—
0.75
Goals for per game
—
50.0%
Scoring rate
—
50.0%
BTTS rate
—
45
History Matches
0
0.84
Goals Mean
—
0.70
Goals Std
—
68.9%
Scored 1+ rate
—
13.3%
Scored 2+ rate
—
2.2%
Scored 3+ rate
—
0.80
Venue Goals Mean
—
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.89
Goals against per game
—
73.3%
Conceding rate
—
1.92
Goals against per game
—
76.0%
Conceding rate
—
3.00
Goals against per game
—
100.0%
Conceding rate
—
45
History Matches
0
1.89
Conceded Mean
—
1.86
Conceded Std
—
46.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
—
31.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
—
1.92
Venue Conceded Mean
—
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
—
31.1%
Failed-to-score rate
—
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
—
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
—
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
—
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
—
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
—
31.1%
Failed-to-score rate
—
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
—
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
—
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
—
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
45
History Matches
0
0.96
Result entropy
—
2.08
Goal Difference Std
—
3.63
Stability score
—
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
45
Eligible Matches
0
10
Lead Matches
0
40.0%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.50
Lead Points Retention
—
12
Trailing Matches
0
8.3%
Non-loss rate
—
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals 50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
0
0.44
First Half Goals For Mean
—
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
—
0.40
Second Half Goals For Mean
—
1.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean
—
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
76.91
Rest days
—
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
23
Normal Rest History Matches
0
0.65
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
16
Long Rest History Matches
0
1.44
Long Rest Points Per Match
—
Competition & season17 signals 170
4
Matches
0
0.00
PPG
—
0.0%
Win rate
—
0.0%
Draw rate
—
100.0%
Loss rate
—
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
—
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
—
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
—
0.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
4
Current Competition Matches
0
0.00
Current Competition PPG
—
-2.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
—
3
Competition Season Count
0
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.52
Portability PPG Std
—
1.17
Portability PPG Range
—
49.25
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
45
Clean History Matches
0
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO-69.39
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches45
History Matches25
History Matches45
History Matches45
History Matches45
Eligible Matches45
Lead Matches10
Trailing Matches12
Halftime Coverage Matches45
Current Competition Matches4
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest History Matches23
Long Rest History Matches16
Current Team ELO-69.39
Current Opponent ELO69.39
Current ELO Difference-138.8
Expected score-0.20
History Matches45
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Juticalpa
L
Real Espana3–1Juticalpa31 Oct · away
Pick: Real Espana 77% · hit L
CD Motagua2–0Juticalpa25 Oct · away
Pick: CD Motagua 76% · hit L
Juticalpa1–2Atlético Choloma17 Oct · home
Pick: Atlético Choloma 38% · hit W
Juticalpa1–0Lobos Upnfm29 Aug · home
Pick: Lobos Upnfm 38% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Estrella Roja
W
Estrella Roja3–1Atletico Independiente31 Oct · home
Pick: Estrella Roja 40% · hit D
Olancho3–3Estrella Roja24 Oct · away
Pick: Olancho 67% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Juticalpa and Estrella Roja meet in Liga Nacional on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Juan Ramon Breve Vargas, Juticalpa. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Juticalpa win 58.1%, draw 19.3%, Estrella Roja win 22.6%. The pick is Juticalpa win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.6%. Both teams to score: 50.8%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.