ScoreProb
Ligue 1 Congo - Kinshasa Round 5 2026

Céleste vs Maniema Union

Céleste Home · Elo 1,479
Thu 12 Nov
UTC
Not started
Maniema Union Away · Elo 1,603
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Maniema Union win
Céleste win
23.1%
Draw
28.2%
Maniema Union winPick
48.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.4%
No52.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.541.1%
Under 2.558.9%

How much we know

Céleste history41 matches
Maniema Union history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    12 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.7%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,277 matches.

Why Maniema Union are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Maniema Union are rated 124 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,603 against 1,479. On rating alone Maniema Union would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.15 goals a game over 41 matches for Céleste, against 1.19 over 72 for Maniema Union.

  • Maniema Union concede fewer

    Céleste concede 1.00 a game, Maniema Union 0.64.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    34% of Céleste matches, against 35% for Maniema Union. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 20 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Céleste
Maniema Union@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1478.6
ELO
1602.7
41
ELO · Matches
72
1478.6
Current Team ELO
1602.7
1602.7
Current Opponent ELO
1478.6
-124.0
Current ELO Difference
124.0
0.33
Expected score
0.67
41
History Matches
72
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.07
48.49
Overperformance
55.65
-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.80
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.30
PPG
1.70
0.70
Goals for per game
1.10
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
0.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.37
Overall performance9 signals
90
41
Matches
72
1.20
PPG
1.76
29.3%
Win rate
48.6%
31.7%
Draw rate
30.6%
39.0%
Loss rate
20.8%
58.5%
Over 1.5 rate
52.8%
34.1%
Over 2.5 rate
34.7%
24.4%
Over 3.5 rate
9.7%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
35
1.14
PPG
1.51
28.6%
Win rate
37.1%
28.6%
Draw rate
40.0%
42.9%
Loss rate
22.9%
47.6%
Over 1.5 rate
42.9%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
28.6%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
11.4%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.27
21
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.15
Goals for per game
1.19
56.1%
Scoring rate
68.1%
36.6%
BTTS rate
33.3%
1.05
Goals for per game
0.94
52.4%
Scoring rate
62.9%
28.6%
BTTS rate
37.1%
41
History Matches
72
1.15
Goals Mean
1.19
1.47
Goals Std
1.14
56.1%
Scored 1+ rate
68.1%
29.3%
Scored 2+ rate
31.9%
9.8%
Scored 3+ rate
15.3%
1.05
Venue Goals Mean
0.94
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.00
Goals against per game
0.64
63.4%
Conceding rate
47.2%
0.95
Goals against per game
0.69
57.1%
Conceding rate
51.4%
41
History Matches
72
1.00
Conceded Mean
0.64
0.96
Conceded Std
0.82
26.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
12.5%
9.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
2.8%
0.95
Venue Conceded Mean
0.69
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
36.6%
Clean-sheet rate
52.8%
43.9%
Failed-to-score rate
31.9%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
48.6%
47.6%
Failed-to-score rate
37.1%
36.6%
Clean-sheet rate
52.8%
43.9%
Failed-to-score rate
31.9%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
48.6%
47.6%
Failed-to-score rate
37.1%
36.6%
Clean-sheet rate
52.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
41
History Matches
72
0.99
Result entropy
0.95
1.86
Goal Difference Std
1.45
0.69
Stability score
5.36
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
40
Eligible Matches
64
8
Lead Matches
22
62.5%
Lead Win Rate
86.4%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.91
9
Trailing Matches
8
0.0%
Non-loss rate
12.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
40
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.30
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.28
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
145.0
Rest days
145.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
15
0.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
24
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.90
12
Long Rest History Matches
14
0.92
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.71
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.42
Portability PPG Std
0.14
0.84
Portability PPG Range
0.33
54.21
Portability Score
78.50
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
41
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-124.0
PPG-0.57
GF-0.05
GA0.36
PPG-0.37
PPG-1.40
PPG-1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-31
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate12.0%
History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate10.5%
History Matches-31
Goals Mean-0.05
Goals Std0.34
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.30
History Matches-31
Conceded Mean0.36
Conceded Std0.14
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Conceded 2+ rate14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate7.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.27
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.12
History Matches-31
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std0.40
Stability score-4.67
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.47
Eligible Matches-24
Lead Matches-14
Lead Win Rate-0.24
Lead Points Retention-0.16
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-24
First Half Goals For Mean-0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.29
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.29
Portability PPG Range0.51
Portability Score-24.30
Rest days-0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-11
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.58
Normal Rest History Matches-18
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.57
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.80
Current Team ELO-124.0
Current Opponent ELO124.0
Current ELO Difference-248.1
Expected score-0.34
History Matches-31
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-7.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.32

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Céleste

W
Céleste2–1Étoile du Congo30 Oct · home
Pick: Céleste 52% · hit
D
FC Renaissance0–0Céleste25 Oct · away
Pick: Céleste 39% · missed
D
Céleste1–1FC Mk de Kinshasa20 Oct · home
Pick: Céleste 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Maniema Union

W
JSK1–2Maniema Union29 Oct · away
Pick: Maniema Union 34% · hit
W
Maniema Union4–1Kabuscorp25 Oct · home
Pick: Maniema Union 51% · hit
W
Kabuscorp1–4Maniema Union18 Oct · away
Pick: Maniema Union 37% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Céleste and Maniema Union meet in Ligue 1 on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: Céleste win 23.1%, draw 28.2%, Maniema Union win 48.7%. The pick is Maniema Union win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.1%. Both teams to score: 47.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.