Anges Verts vs Étoile du Congo
Match result probability Model pick: Anges Verts win
Anges Verts winPick
59.5%
Draw
19.4%
Étoile du Congo win
21.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes38.4%
No61.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.551.8%
Under 2.548.2%
How much we know
Anges Verts history44 matches
Étoile du Congo history4 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Anges Verts
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre12 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,777 matches.
Why Anges Verts are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Étoile du Congo are rated 97 Elo points higher
Elo 1,521 against 1,424. On rating alone Étoile du Congo would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.
-
Étoile du Congo score far more
0.80 goals a game over 44 matches for Anges Verts, against 1.50 over 4 for Étoile du Congo.
-
Étoile du Congo concede fewer
Anges Verts concede 1.70 a game, Étoile du Congo 0.00.
-
Anges Verts games more often go over 2.5 goals
43% of Anges Verts matches, against 25% for Étoile du Congo. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 19 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Étoile du Congo@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1424.3
ELO
1521.3
44
ELO · Matches
4
1424.3
Current Team ELO
1521.3
1521.3
Current Opponent ELO
1424.3
-96.99
Current ELO Difference
96.99
0.36
Expected score
0.64
44
History Matches
4
-0.07
Residual Mean
0.36
45.15
Overperformance
55.96
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.36
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
4
0.60
PPG
2.50
0.40
Goals for per game
1.50
1.60
Goals against per game
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
75.0%
10
Matches
4
0.80
PPG
2.50
0.40
Goals for per game
1.50
1.00
Goals against per game
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
75.0%
0.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.50
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.00
1.34
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.00
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.51
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals 90
44
Matches
4
0.75
PPG
2.50
11.4%
Win rate
75.0%
40.9%
Draw rate
25.0%
47.7%
Loss rate
0.0%
68.2%
Over 1.5 rate
25.0%
43.2%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
Venue performance10 signals 100
25
Matches
0
0.84
PPG
—
12.0%
Win rate
—
48.0%
Draw rate
—
40.0%
Loss rate
—
68.0%
Over 1.5 rate
—
44.0%
Over 2.5 rate
—
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
—
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
25
History Matches
0
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.80
Goals for per game
1.50
47.7%
Scoring rate
75.0%
43.2%
BTTS rate
0.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
—
56.0%
Scoring rate
—
52.0%
BTTS rate
—
44
History Matches
4
0.80
Goals Mean
1.50
1.01
Goals Std
1.50
47.7%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
20.5%
Scored 2+ rate
25.0%
11.4%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
—
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.70
Goals against per game
0.00
77.3%
Conceding rate
0.0%
1.60
Goals against per game
—
80.0%
Conceding rate
—
44
History Matches
4
1.70
Conceded Mean
0.00
1.46
Conceded Std
0.00
43.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
0.0%
29.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
1.60
Venue Conceded Mean
—
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
52.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
—
44.0%
Failed-to-score rate
—
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
52.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
—
44.0%
Failed-to-score rate
—
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
44
History Matches
4
0.88
Result entropy
0.51
1.74
Goal Difference Std
1.50
12.09
Stability score
48.81
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
36
Eligible Matches
2
4
Lead Matches
1
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
1.00
13
Trailing Matches
0
7.7%
Non-loss rate
—
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals 50
36
Halftime Coverage Matches
2
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.83
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.00
0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.92
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.00
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
207.9
Rest days
607.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
18
Normal Rest History Matches
2
0.83
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
17
Long Rest History Matches
1
0.59
Long Rest Points Per Match
3.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.22
Portability PPG Std
—
0.43
Portability PPG Range
—
69.80
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
44
Clean History Matches
4
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateVenue Goals MeanVenue Conceded MeanNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-96.99
PPG-1.75
GF-0.70
GA1.70
PPG-1.90
PPG-1.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches40
Clean-sheet rate-0.77
Failed-to-score rate27.3%
History Matches25
History Matches40
Goals Mean-0.70
Goals Std-0.49
Scored 1+ rate-0.27
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.01
History Matches40
Conceded Mean1.70
Conceded Std1.46
Clean-sheet rate-0.77
Conceded 2+ rate43.2%
Conceded 3+ rate29.5%
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.34
History Matches40
Result entropy0.37
Goal Difference Std0.24
Stability score-36.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.06
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.30
Eligible Matches34
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.25
Lead Points Retention-0.17
Trailing Matches13
Halftime Coverage Matches34
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.92
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-400.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest History Matches16
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.17
Long Rest History Matches16
Long Rest Points Per Match-2.41
Current Team ELO-96.99
Current Opponent ELO96.99
Current ELO Difference-194.0
Expected score-0.27
History Matches40
Residual Mean-0.43
Overperformance-10.81
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.34
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Anges Verts
L
Anges Verts0–1FC Mk de Kinshasa31 Oct · home
Pick: Anges Verts 50% · missed W
Rangers0–1Anges Verts26 Oct · away
Pick: Rangers 42% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Étoile du Congo
L
Céleste2–1Étoile du Congo30 Oct · away
Pick: Céleste 52% · hit W
JSK0–1Étoile du Congo20 Oct · away
Pick: JSK 67% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Anges Verts and Étoile du Congo meet in Ligue 1 on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: Anges Verts win 59.5%, draw 19.4%, Étoile du Congo win 21.2%. The pick is Anges Verts win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.8%. Both teams to score: 38.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.