Etoile de Kivu vs FC Renaissance
Match result probability Model pick: Etoile de Kivu win
Etoile de Kivu winPick
45.8%
Draw
29.9%
FC Renaissance win
24.3%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes45.1%
No54.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.543.4%
Under 2.556.6%
How much we know
Etoile de Kivu history24 matches
FC Renaissance history17 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Etoile de Kivu
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 12:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre12 Nov · 13:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.8%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,277 matches.
Why Etoile de Kivu are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Etoile de Kivu are rated 27 Elo points higher
Elo 1,506 against 1,479. On rating alone Etoile de Kivu would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.
-
Etoile de Kivu score far more
1.21 goals a game over 24 matches for Etoile de Kivu, against 0.65 over 17 for FC Renaissance.
-
Defences are close
Etoile de Kivu concede 1.21 a game, FC Renaissance 1.12.
-
Etoile de Kivu games more often go over 2.5 goals
50% of Etoile de Kivu matches, against 18% for FC Renaissance. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 9 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Renaissance@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1506.1
ELO
1478.9
24
ELO · Matches
17
1506.1
Current Team ELO
1478.9
1478.9
Current Opponent ELO
1506.1
27.20
Current ELO Difference
-27.20
0.54
Expected score
0.46
24
History Matches
17
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.05
50.30
Overperformance
47.87
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.80
2.00
Goals for per game
0.40
1.00
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
0.70
1.40
Goals for per game
0.50
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.50
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.50
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.43
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.64
Overall performance9 signals 90
24
Matches
17
1.33
PPG
1.06
33.3%
Win rate
17.6%
33.3%
Draw rate
52.9%
33.3%
Loss rate
29.4%
62.5%
Over 1.5 rate
64.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
17.6%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
5.9%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
Venue performance10 signals 100
11
Matches
7
1.64
PPG
0.86
45.5%
Win rate
14.3%
27.3%
Draw rate
42.9%
27.3%
Loss rate
42.9%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
72.7%
Over 2.5 rate
14.3%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
11
History Matches
7
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.21
Goals for per game
0.65
62.5%
Scoring rate
58.8%
37.5%
BTTS rate
41.2%
1.64
Goals for per game
0.57
63.6%
Scoring rate
42.9%
36.4%
BTTS rate
28.6%
24
History Matches
17
1.21
Goals Mean
0.65
1.15
Goals Std
0.59
62.5%
Scored 1+ rate
58.8%
37.5%
Scored 2+ rate
5.9%
20.8%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.64
Venue Goals Mean
0.57
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.21
Goals against per game
1.12
58.3%
Conceding rate
64.7%
1.18
Goals against per game
1.14
63.6%
Conceding rate
71.4%
24
History Matches
17
1.21
Conceded Mean
1.12
1.29
Conceded Std
1.28
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.5%
25.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.8%
1.18
Venue Conceded Mean
1.14
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
41.2%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
57.1%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
41.2%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
57.1%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
24
History Matches
17
1.00
Result entropy
0.91
1.71
Goal Difference Std
1.58
0.00
Stability score
8.73
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
21
Eligible Matches
14
6
Lead Matches
4
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
25.0%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.50
4
Trailing Matches
3
25.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
21
Halftime Coverage Matches
14
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.36
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.38
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
250.0
Rest days
217.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
14
Normal Rest History Matches
9
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
4
Long Rest History Matches
6
0.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
24
Clean History Matches
17
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO27.20
PPG0.27
GF0.56
GA0.09
PPG0.78
PPG0.80
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate6.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate7.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches7
Goals Mean0.56
Goals Std0.57
Scored 1+ rate3.7%
Scored 2+ rate31.6%
Scored 3+ rate20.8%
Venue Goals Mean1.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.61
History Matches7
Conceded Mean0.09
Conceded Std0.01
Clean-sheet rate6.4%
Conceded 2+ rate9.8%
Conceded 3+ rate13.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.25
History Matches7
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std0.13
Stability score-8.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.44
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.21
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate41.7%
Lead Points Retention0.28
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days33.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.17
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.75
Current Team ELO27.20
Current Opponent ELO-27.20
Current ELO Difference54.40
Expected score0.08
History Matches7
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance2.43
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Etoile de Kivu
W
Etoile de Kivu2–1Rangers31 Oct · home
Pick: Rangers 38% · missed D
New Jack0–0Etoile de Kivu24 Oct · away
Pick: New Jack 43% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
FC Renaissance
D
FC Renaissance0–0Céleste25 Oct · home
Pick: Céleste 39% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Etoile de Kivu and FC Renaissance meet in Ligue 1 on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: Etoile de Kivu win 45.8%, draw 29.9%, FC Renaissance win 24.3%. The pick is Etoile de Kivu win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.4%. Both teams to score: 45.1%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.