ScoreProb
Liga 3 Portugal 2026

CF Os Belenenses vs Lusitano Évora 1911

CF Os Belenenses Home · Elo 1,600
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lusitano Évora 1911 Away · Elo 1,548
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: CF Os Belenenses win
CF Os Belenenses winPick
57.6%
Draw
24.7%
Lusitano Évora 1911 win
17.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.9%
No54.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.9%
Under 2.554.1%

How much we know

CF Os Belenenses history61 matches
Lusitano Évora 1911 history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why CF Os Belenenses are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • CF Os Belenenses are rated 52 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,600 against 1,548. On rating alone CF Os Belenenses would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.49 goals a game over 61 matches for CF Os Belenenses, against 1.63 over 56 for Lusitano Évora 1911.

  • Lusitano Évora 1911 concede fewer

    CF Os Belenenses concede 1.00 a game, Lusitano Évora 1911 0.82.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    46% of CF Os Belenenses matches, against 43% for Lusitano Évora 1911. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
CF Os Belenenses
Lusitano Évora 1911
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1599.7
ELO
1548.1
61
ELO · Matches
56
1599.7
Current Team ELO
1548.1
1548.1
Current Opponent ELO
1599.7
51.68
Current ELO Difference
-51.68
0.57
Expected score
0.43
61
History Matches
56
0.08
Residual Mean
0.04
56.12
Overperformance
53.18
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.00
2.20
Goals for per game
0.60
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.50
1.70
Goals for per game
0.90
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.40
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.83
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
56
1.79
PPG
1.84
50.8%
Win rate
55.4%
26.2%
Draw rate
17.9%
23.0%
Loss rate
26.8%
70.5%
Over 1.5 rate
66.1%
45.9%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
27.9%
Over 3.5 rate
21.4%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
27
1.90
PPG
1.56
51.6%
Win rate
40.7%
35.5%
Draw rate
33.3%
12.9%
Loss rate
25.9%
67.7%
Over 1.5 rate
74.1%
35.5%
Over 2.5 rate
40.7%
19.4%
Over 3.5 rate
18.5%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
31
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.49
Goals for per game
1.63
80.3%
Scoring rate
75.0%
52.5%
BTTS rate
46.4%
1.42
Goals for per game
1.59
77.4%
Scoring rate
74.1%
48.4%
BTTS rate
55.6%
3.00
Goals for per game
0.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
33.3%
33.3%
BTTS rate
33.3%
61
History Matches
56
1.49
Goals Mean
1.63
1.18
Goals Std
1.54
80.3%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
41.0%
Scored 2+ rate
42.9%
19.7%
Scored 3+ rate
23.2%
1.42
Venue Goals Mean
1.59
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.00
Goals against per game
0.82
62.3%
Conceding rate
67.9%
0.77
Goals against per game
0.93
54.8%
Conceding rate
74.1%
0.33
Goals against per game
0.67
33.3%
Conceding rate
66.7%
61
History Matches
56
1.00
Conceded Mean
0.82
1.04
Conceded Std
0.71
27.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
10.7%
4.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.6%
0.77
Venue Conceded Mean
0.93
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
37.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
19.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
45.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
37.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
19.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
45.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
37.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
56
0.94
Result entropy
0.90
1.60
Goal Difference Std
1.82
5.99
Stability score
10.08
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
54
23
Lead Matches
24
87.0%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.89
9
Trailing Matches
14
11.1%
Non-loss rate
42.9%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
28.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.37
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.21
Rest days
77.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
22
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.95
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.96
37
Long Rest History Matches
30
1.68
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.70
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
3.00
PPG
1.33
100.0%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.82
3
Current Competition Matches
3
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.33
2.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
8
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.86
Portability PPG Std
0.59
2.67
Portability PPG Range
1.38
36.69
Portability Score
45.80
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO51.68
PPG-0.05
GF-0.13
GA0.18
PPG1.67
PPG0.35
PPG1.00
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate5.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate19.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.13
Goals Std-0.36
Scored 1+ rate5.3%
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean-0.17
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.66
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.18
Conceded Std0.33
Clean-sheet rate5.6%
Conceded 2+ rate17.2%
Conceded 3+ rate1.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.15
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.00
History Matches5
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.22
Stability score-4.09
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.42
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.32
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.67
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.27
Portability PPG Range1.29
Portability Score-9.11
Rest days0.25
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.01
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Current Team ELO51.68
Current Opponent ELO-51.68
Current ELO Difference103.4
Expected score0.15
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.93
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

CF Os Belenenses

W
Oliveirense1–2CF Os Belenenses31 Oct · away
Pick: CF Os Belenenses 55% · hit
D
CF Os Belenenses1–1SC Covilha25 Oct · home
Pick: CF Os Belenenses 68% · missed
W
Lusitano Évora 19111–2CF Os Belenenses30 Aug · away
Pick: CF Os Belenenses 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Lusitano Évora 1911

L
Lusitano Évora 19110–1Vitória de Sernache1 Nov · home
Pick: Lusitano Évora 1911 62% · missed
D
Lusitano Évora 19112–2Oliveirense24 Oct · home
Pick: Lusitano Évora 1911 49% · missed
L
Lusitano Évora 19111–2CF Os Belenenses30 Aug · home
Pick: CF Os Belenenses 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

CF Os Belenenses and Lusitano Évora 1911 meet in Liga 3 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: CF Os Belenenses win 57.6%, draw 24.7%, Lusitano Évora 1911 win 17.7%. The pick is CF Os Belenenses win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.9%. Both teams to score: 45.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.