ScoreProb
Liga 3 Portugal Round 9 2026

Vitória de Sernache vs Atlético CP

Vitória de Sernache Home · Elo 1,576
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Atlético CP Away · Elo 1,506
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Atlético CP win
Vitória de Sernache win
33.2%
Draw
28.1%
Atlético CP winPick
38.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes43.3%
No56.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.538.8%
Under 2.561.2%

How much we know

Vitória de Sernache history37 matches
Atlético CP history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.7%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Atlético CP are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Vitória de Sernache are rated 71 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,576 against 1,506. On rating alone Vitória de Sernache would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Vitória de Sernache score more

    1.22 goals a game over 37 matches for Vitória de Sernache, against 1.08 over 50 for Atlético CP.

  • Vitória de Sernache concede fewer

    Vitória de Sernache concede 0.70 a game, Atlético CP 1.00.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    35% of Vitória de Sernache matches, against 36% for Atlético CP. The model puts this match at 39% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Vitória de Sernache
Atlético CP
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1576.4
ELO
1505.7
37
ELO · Matches
50
1576.4
Current Team ELO
1505.7
1505.7
Current Opponent ELO
1576.4
70.69
Current ELO Difference
-70.69
0.60
Expected score
0.40
37
History Matches
50
0.10
Residual Mean
0.01
56.38
Overperformance
50.73
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.40
0.80
Goals for per game
1.00
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.30
1.10
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.89
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.67
Overall performance9 signals
90
37
Matches
50
1.86
PPG
1.32
51.4%
Win rate
38.0%
32.4%
Draw rate
18.0%
16.2%
Loss rate
44.0%
54.1%
Over 1.5 rate
62.0%
35.1%
Over 2.5 rate
36.0%
13.5%
Over 3.5 rate
12.0%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
24
1.83
PPG
1.42
50.0%
Win rate
41.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
16.7%
16.7%
Loss rate
41.7%
44.4%
Over 1.5 rate
54.2%
27.8%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
5.6%
Over 3.5 rate
4.2%
1.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
18
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.22
Goals for per game
1.08
67.6%
Scoring rate
68.0%
32.4%
BTTS rate
34.0%
1.11
Goals for per game
0.92
61.1%
Scoring rate
66.7%
22.2%
BTTS rate
29.2%
0.67
Goals for per game
1.67
33.3%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
33.3%
37
History Matches
50
1.22
Goals Mean
1.08
1.12
Goals Std
1.15
67.6%
Scored 1+ rate
68.0%
37.8%
Scored 2+ rate
20.0%
10.8%
Scored 3+ rate
12.0%
1.11
Venue Goals Mean
0.92
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.70
Goals against per game
1.00
43.2%
Conceding rate
58.0%
0.39
Goals against per game
0.96
33.3%
Conceding rate
58.3%
2.67
Goals against per game
0.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
33.3%
37
History Matches
50
0.70
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.06
Conceded Std
1.00
16.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.0%
5.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.0%
0.39
Venue Conceded Mean
0.96
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
56.8%
Clean-sheet rate
42.0%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
38.9%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
56.8%
Clean-sheet rate
42.0%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
38.9%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
56.8%
Clean-sheet rate
42.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
37
History Matches
50
0.91
Result entropy
0.94
1.52
Goal Difference Std
1.72
8.75
Stability score
5.56
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
37
Eligible Matches
49
14
Lead Matches
12
92.9%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.95
Lead Points Retention
1.00
7
Trailing Matches
9
42.9%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
37
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.31
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.94
Rest days
77.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
17
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.76
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.46
19
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.89
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.20
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.33
PPG
2.33
0.0%
Win rate
66.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
66.7%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.33
Current Competition PPG
2.33
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.33
4
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.79
Portability PPG Std
0.54
1.78
Portability PPG Range
1.40
38.87
Portability Score
48.18
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
37
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO70.69
PPG0.54
GF0.14
GA-0.30
PPG-2.00
PPG0.42
PPG-0.80
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-13
Clean-sheet rate14.8%
Failed-to-score rate0.4%
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate25.0%
Failed-to-score rate5.6%
History Matches-13
Goals Mean0.14
Goals Std-0.03
Scored 1+ rate0.00
Scored 2+ rate17.8%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.19
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.15
History Matches-13
Conceded Mean-0.30
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate14.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.20
Conceded 3+ rate1.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.57
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.54
History Matches-13
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.20
Stability score3.20
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.25
Eligible Matches-12
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate31.7%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-12
First Half Goals For Mean0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.36
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.33
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.25
Portability PPG Range0.38
Portability Score-9.31
Rest days-0.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.31
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.69
Current Team ELO70.69
Current Opponent ELO-70.69
Current ELO Difference141.4
Expected score0.20
History Matches-13
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance5.65
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Vitória de Sernache

W
Lusitano Évora 19110–1Vitória de Sernache1 Nov · away
Pick: Lusitano Évora 1911 62% · missed
L
União Santarém2–1Vitória de Sernache25 Oct · away
Pick: União Santarém 36% · hit
W
Brito0–1Vitória de Sernache18 Oct · away
Pick: Brito 43% · missed
W
Nazarenos0–3Vitória de Sernache30 Aug · away
Pick: Vitória de Sernache 37% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Atlético CP

W
Atlético CP3–1União Santarém31 Oct · home
Pick: Atlético CP 59% · hit
D
Louletano2–2Atlético CP25 Oct · away
Pick: Atlético CP 36% · missed
W
Atlético CP1–0Vizela17 Oct · home
Pick: Vizela 40% · missed
W
Olímpico do Montijo0–4Atlético CP29 Aug · away
Pick: Draw 36% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Vitória de Sernache and Atlético CP meet in Liga 3 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Vitória de Sernache win 33.2%, draw 28.1%, Atlético CP win 38.7%. The pick is Atlético CP win. Over 2.5 goals: 38.8%. Both teams to score: 43.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.