ScoreProb
Liga 3 Portugal Round 9 2026

Louletano vs SC Covilha

Louletano Home · Elo 1,596
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
SC Covilha Away · Elo 1,474
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Louletano win
Louletano winPick
51.7%
Draw
27.3%
SC Covilha win
21.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.0%
No56.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.8%
Under 2.555.2%

How much we know

Louletano history46 matches
SC Covilha history44 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Louletano are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Louletano are rated 122 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,596 against 1,474. On rating alone Louletano would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Louletano score far more

    1.59 goals a game over 46 matches for Louletano, against 0.82 over 44 for SC Covilha.

  • Louletano concede fewer

    Louletano concede 0.80 a game, SC Covilha 1.23.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    41% of Louletano matches, against 34% for SC Covilha. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Louletano
SC Covilha
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1596.3
ELO
1474.2
46
ELO · Matches
44
1596.3
Current Team ELO
1474.2
1474.2
Current Opponent ELO
1596.3
122.1
Current ELO Difference
-122.1
0.67
Expected score
0.33
46
History Matches
44
0.10
Residual Mean
-0.02
56.65
Overperformance
48.38
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.20
1.60
Goals for per game
0.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
0.90
1.40
Goals against per game
1.30
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
44
1.83
PPG
1.09
50.0%
Win rate
25.0%
32.6%
Draw rate
34.1%
17.4%
Loss rate
40.9%
67.4%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
41.3%
Over 2.5 rate
34.1%
21.7%
Over 3.5 rate
6.8%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
21
1.81
PPG
1.14
52.4%
Win rate
28.6%
23.8%
Draw rate
28.6%
23.8%
Loss rate
42.9%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
19.0%
Over 3.5 rate
4.8%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
21
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.59
Goals for per game
0.82
78.3%
Scoring rate
61.4%
45.7%
BTTS rate
47.7%
1.52
Goals for per game
0.90
85.7%
Scoring rate
61.9%
42.9%
BTTS rate
47.6%
1.67
Goals for per game
0.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
33.3%
66.7%
BTTS rate
0.0%
46
History Matches
44
1.59
Goals Mean
0.82
1.39
Goals Std
0.78
78.3%
Scored 1+ rate
61.4%
41.3%
Scored 2+ rate
18.2%
21.7%
Scored 3+ rate
2.3%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
0.90
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.80
Goals against per game
1.23
52.2%
Conceding rate
77.3%
0.90
Goals against per game
1.19
52.4%
Conceding rate
76.2%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
33.3%
46
History Matches
44
0.80
Conceded Mean
1.23
0.90
Conceded Std
0.95
23.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.1%
4.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.1%
0.90
Venue Conceded Mean
1.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
47.8%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
38.6%
47.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
38.1%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
47.8%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
38.6%
47.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
38.1%
47.8%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
44
0.92
Result entropy
0.98
1.55
Goal Difference Std
1.39
7.50
Stability score
1.78
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
44
20
Lead Matches
10
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.70
5
Trailing Matches
15
40.0%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
44
0.78
First Half Goals For Mean
0.32
0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.79
Rest days
77.75
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
23
Normal Rest History Matches
18
1.87
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.78
22
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.73
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
1.33
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
1.33
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
5
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.27
Portability PPG Std
0.18
0.67
Portability PPG Range
0.43
64.80
Portability Score
73.48
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
44
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO122.1
PPG0.74
GF0.77
GA-0.42
PPG0.00
PPG0.67
PPG0.40
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate25.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate23.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.77
Goals Std0.62
Scored 1+ rate16.9%
Scored 2+ rate23.1%
Scored 3+ rate19.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.62
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.19
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.42
Conceded Std-0.05
Clean-sheet rate25.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.20
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std0.16
Stability score5.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.40
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate15.0%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches-10
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.33
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.09
Portability PPG Range0.23
Portability Score-8.68
Rest days-0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.09
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.48
Current Team ELO122.1
Current Opponent ELO-122.1
Current ELO Difference244.2
Expected score0.34
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.12
Overperformance8.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Louletano

L
Mafra2–1Louletano31 Oct · away
Pick: Mafra 51% · hit
D
Louletano2–2Atlético CP25 Oct · home
Pick: Atlético CP 36% · missed
W
Castrense0–1Louletano30 Aug · away
Pick: Louletano 62% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

SC Covilha

L
SC Covilha0–1Caldas1 Nov · home
Pick: SC Covilha 44% · missed
D
CF Os Belenenses1–1SC Covilha25 Oct · away
Pick: CF Os Belenenses 68% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Louletano and SC Covilha meet in Liga 3 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Louletano win 51.7%, draw 27.3%, SC Covilha win 21.0%. The pick is Louletano win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.8%. Both teams to score: 44.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.