ScoreProb
National League - South England National League South - 16 2026

Chelmsford City vs Farnborough

Chelmsford City Home · Elo 1,563
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Farnborough Away · Elo 1,503
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Chelmsford City win
Chelmsford City winPick
44.5%
Draw
25.8%
Farnborough win
29.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.6%
No44.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.0%
Under 2.537.0%

How much we know

Chelmsford City history78 matches
Farnborough history82 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Chelmsford City are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Chelmsford City are rated 60 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,563 against 1,503. On rating alone Chelmsford City would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.71 goals a game over 78 matches for Chelmsford City, against 1.60 over 82 for Farnborough.

  • Chelmsford City concede fewer

    Chelmsford City concede 1.27 a game, Farnborough 1.82.

  • Farnborough games more often go over 2.5 goals

    54% of Chelmsford City matches, against 62% for Farnborough. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Chelmsford City
Farnborough
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1562.7
ELO
1502.7
78
ELO · Matches
82
1562.7
Current Team ELO
1502.7
1502.7
Current Opponent ELO
1562.7
59.99
Current ELO Difference
-59.99
0.59
Expected score
0.41
78
History Matches
82
0.04
Residual Mean
0.00
53.27
Overperformance
50.30
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.70
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.30
Goals against per game
1.00
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.08
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
78
Matches
82
1.59
PPG
1.27
44.9%
Win rate
35.4%
24.4%
Draw rate
20.7%
30.8%
Loss rate
43.9%
73.1%
Over 1.5 rate
81.7%
53.8%
Over 2.5 rate
62.2%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
43.9%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
Venue performance10 signals
100
40
Matches
41
1.60
PPG
1.15
45.0%
Win rate
29.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
26.8%
30.0%
Loss rate
43.9%
72.5%
Over 1.5 rate
78.0%
47.5%
Over 2.5 rate
65.9%
27.5%
Over 3.5 rate
51.2%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.13
40
History Matches
41
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.71
Goals for per game
1.60
78.2%
Scoring rate
76.8%
56.4%
BTTS rate
62.2%
1.65
Goals for per game
1.66
80.0%
Scoring rate
75.6%
55.0%
BTTS rate
68.3%
0.67
Goals for per game
1.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
75.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
78
History Matches
82
1.71
Goals Mean
1.60
1.59
Goals Std
1.46
78.2%
Scored 1+ rate
76.8%
42.3%
Scored 2+ rate
46.3%
24.4%
Scored 3+ rate
18.3%
1.65
Venue Goals Mean
1.66
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.27
Goals against per game
1.82
69.2%
Conceding rate
84.1%
1.18
Goals against per game
1.85
65.0%
Conceding rate
90.2%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
75.0%
78
History Matches
82
1.27
Conceded Mean
1.82
1.21
Conceded Std
1.45
35.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.4%
14.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.0%
1.18
Venue Conceded Mean
1.85
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
15.9%
21.8%
Failed-to-score rate
23.2%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
9.8%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
15.9%
21.8%
Failed-to-score rate
23.2%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
9.8%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.4%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
15.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
78
History Matches
82
0.97
Result entropy
0.96
1.97
Goal Difference Std
2.08
2.94
Stability score
3.95
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
78
Eligible Matches
81
32
Lead Matches
24
68.8%
Lead Win Rate
70.8%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.78
14
Trailing Matches
34
7.1%
Non-loss rate
23.5%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
2.9%
Goal timing5 signals
50
78
Halftime Coverage Matches
81
0.82
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
14
Short Rest History Matches
11
2.07
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.64
57
Normal Rest History Matches
61
1.42
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.23
6
Long Rest History Matches
9
2.17
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.22
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
4
1.00
PPG
1.75
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.22
3
Current Competition Matches
4
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.75
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
7
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.49
Portability PPG Std
0.35
1.40
Portability PPG Range
1.00
50.63
Portability Score
58.69
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
78
Clean History Matches
82
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO59.99
PPG0.32
GF0.11
GA-0.55
PPG-0.75
PPG0.45
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate14.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate25.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-4
Goals Mean0.11
Goals Std0.12
Scored 1+ rate1.4%
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate6.1%
Venue Goals Mean-0.01
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.16
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean-0.55
Conceded Std-0.24
Clean-sheet rate14.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.68
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.41
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.11
Stability score-1.01
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.07
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches-20
Non-loss rate-0.16
Trailing Win Rate4.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.43
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.14
Portability PPG Range0.40
Portability Score-8.06
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.44
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.19
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.94
Current Team ELO59.99
Current Opponent ELO-59.99
Current ELO Difference120.0
Expected score0.17
History Matches-4
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.97
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Chelmsford City

L
Chelmsford City0–2Farnham Town2 Nov · home
Pick: Chelmsford City 54% · missed
W
AFC Totton1–3Chelmsford City31 Oct · away
Pick: Chelmsford City 37% · hit
W
Dover0–1Chelmsford City27 Oct · away
Pick: Chelmsford City 37% · hit
D
Chelmsford City3–3Tonbridge Angels24 Oct · home
Pick: Chelmsford City 41% · missed
L
Wimborne Town1–0Chelmsford City17 Oct · away
Pick: Chelmsford City 42% · missed

Farnborough

L
Farnborough0–6Ebbsfleet United3 Nov · home
Pick: Farnborough 43% · missed
L
Farnborough0–5Horsham31 Oct · home
Pick: Horsham 44% · hit
W
Farnborough2–1Weston-super-Mare28 Oct · home
Pick: Weston-super-Mare 48% · missed
L
Folkestone Invicta2–0Farnborough24 Oct · away
Pick: Folkestone Invicta 55% · hit
W
Farnborough2–0Dagenham & Redbridge17 Oct · home
Pick: Dagenham & Redbridge 46% · missed

About this match

Chelmsford City and Farnborough meet in National League - South on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Chelmsford City win 44.5%, draw 25.8%, Farnborough win 29.7%. The pick is Chelmsford City win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.0%. Both teams to score: 55.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.