ScoreProb
National League - South England National League South - 16 2026

Folkestone Invicta vs Truro City

Folkestone Invicta Home · Elo 1,626
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Truro City Away · Elo 1,465
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Folkestone Invicta win
Folkestone Invicta winPick
42.3%
Draw
27.3%
Truro City win
30.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.6%
No48.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.9%
Under 2.545.1%

How much we know

Folkestone Invicta history77 matches
Truro City history83 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Folkestone Invicta are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Folkestone Invicta are rated 161 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,626 against 1,465. On rating alone Folkestone Invicta would be expected to take 72% of the points on offer.

  • Folkestone Invicta score far more

    2.09 goals a game over 77 matches for Folkestone Invicta, against 1.18 over 83 for Truro City.

  • Defences are close

    Folkestone Invicta concede 1.18 a game, Truro City 1.29.

  • Folkestone Invicta games more often go over 2.5 goals

    61% of Folkestone Invicta matches, against 42% for Truro City. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Folkestone Invicta
Truro City
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1625.6
ELO
1465.0
77
ELO · Matches
83
1625.6
Current Team ELO
1465.0
1465.0
Current Opponent ELO
1625.6
160.6
Current ELO Difference
-160.6
0.72
Expected score
0.28
77
History Matches
83
0.07
Residual Mean
-0.01
55.75
Overperformance
48.79
-0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.25
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.00
2.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
0.40
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.70
1.50
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
0.50
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.89
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.50
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
77
Matches
83
1.91
PPG
1.24
57.1%
Win rate
33.7%
19.5%
Draw rate
22.9%
23.4%
Loss rate
43.4%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
72.3%
61.0%
Over 2.5 rate
42.2%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
24.1%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
39
2.11
PPG
1.05
63.9%
Win rate
28.2%
19.4%
Draw rate
20.5%
16.7%
Loss rate
51.3%
86.1%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
61.1%
Over 2.5 rate
46.2%
36.1%
Over 3.5 rate
28.2%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
36
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.09
Goals for per game
1.18
88.3%
Scoring rate
60.2%
59.7%
BTTS rate
39.8%
2.33
Goals for per game
1.00
91.7%
Scoring rate
51.3%
55.6%
BTTS rate
35.9%
2.33
Goals for per game
1.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
77
History Matches
83
2.09
Goals Mean
1.18
1.53
Goals Std
1.23
88.3%
Scored 1+ rate
60.2%
62.3%
Scored 2+ rate
37.3%
29.9%
Scored 3+ rate
14.5%
2.33
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.18
Goals against per game
1.29
67.5%
Conceding rate
72.3%
1.03
Goals against per game
1.49
61.1%
Conceding rate
76.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
77
History Matches
83
1.18
Conceded Mean
1.29
1.10
Conceded Std
1.11
35.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.3%
11.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.5%
1.03
Venue Conceded Mean
1.49
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.7%
11.7%
Failed-to-score rate
39.8%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
48.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
32.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.7%
11.7%
Failed-to-score rate
39.8%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
48.7%
32.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
77
History Matches
83
0.89
Result entropy
0.97
1.88
Goal Difference Std
1.80
10.96
Stability score
2.93
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
76
Eligible Matches
83
31
Lead Matches
21
93.5%
Lead Win Rate
76.2%
0.95
Lead Points Retention
0.83
17
Trailing Matches
23
35.3%
Non-loss rate
26.1%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
4.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
76
Halftime Coverage Matches
83
0.99
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
1.12
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.54
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
9
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.89
68
Normal Rest History Matches
63
1.87
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
4
Long Rest History Matches
10
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.67
PPG
2.33
33.3%
Win rate
66.7%
66.7%
Draw rate
33.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.67
Current Competition PPG
2.33
1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.33
7
Competition Season Count
9
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.45
Portability PPG Std
0.64
1.15
Portability PPG Range
1.59
52.42
Portability Score
43.97
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
77
Clean History Matches
83
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO160.6
PPG0.67
GF0.91
GA-0.11
PPG-0.67
PPG1.06
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate4.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate15.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.40
History Matches-6
Goals Mean0.91
Goals Std0.30
Scored 1+ rate28.1%
Scored 2+ rate25.0%
Scored 3+ rate15.4%
Venue Goals Mean1.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.47
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean-0.11
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate4.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.58
History Matches-6
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std0.08
Stability score8.03
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.53
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate17.4%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate9.2%
Trailing Win Rate1.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.18
Portability PPG Range-0.44
Portability Score8.46
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-5
Short Rest Points Per Match2.11
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.53
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.25
Current Team ELO160.6
Current Opponent ELO-160.6
Current ELO Difference321.1
Expected score0.43
History Matches-6
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.95
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.41

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Folkestone Invicta

D
Chesham United2–2Folkestone Invicta31 Oct · away
Pick: Folkestone Invicta 53% · missed
L
Tonbridge Angels2–0Folkestone Invicta27 Oct · away
Pick: Folkestone Invicta 42% · missed
W
Folkestone Invicta2–0Farnborough24 Oct · home
Pick: Folkestone Invicta 55% · hit
W
Folkestone Invicta2–1AFC Totton17 Oct · home
Pick: Folkestone Invicta 55% · hit
L
Ebbsfleet United1–0Folkestone Invicta6 Oct · away
Pick: Folkestone Invicta 41% · missed

Truro City

W
Truro City1–0West Bromwich Albion U213 Nov · home
Pick: Truro City 64% · hit
W
Truro City3–0Ebbsfleet United31 Oct · home
Pick: Truro City 46% · hit
W
Truro City3–1Slough Town27 Oct · home
Pick: Truro City 64% · hit
W
Hampton & Richmond3–4Truro City24 Oct · away
Pick: Truro City 60% · hit
L
Sutton Utd1–0Truro City17 Oct · away
Pick: Sutton Utd 52% · hit

About this match

Folkestone Invicta and Truro City meet in National League - South on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Folkestone Invicta win 42.3%, draw 27.3%, Truro City win 30.4%. The pick is Folkestone Invicta win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.9%. Both teams to score: 51.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.