ScoreProb
National League - South England National League South - 16 2026

Dagenham & Redbridge vs Billericay Town

Dagenham & Redbridge Home · Elo 1,562
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Billericay Town Away · Elo 1,661
Victoria Road, London Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dagenham & Redbridge win
Dagenham & Redbridge winPick
52.6%
Draw
23.2%
Billericay Town win
24.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.6%
No50.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.0%
Under 2.544.0%

How much we know

Dagenham & Redbridge history83 matches
Billericay Town history74 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Dagenham & Redbridge are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Billericay Town are rated 99 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,661 against 1,562. On rating alone Billericay Town would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Billericay Town score far more

    1.27 goals a game over 83 matches for Dagenham & Redbridge, against 2.01 over 74 for Billericay Town.

  • Defences are close

    Dagenham & Redbridge concede 1.35 a game, Billericay Town 1.27.

  • Billericay Town games more often go over 2.5 goals

    48% of Dagenham & Redbridge matches, against 65% for Billericay Town. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dagenham & Redbridge
Billericay Town
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1561.9
ELO
1660.6
83
ELO · Matches
74
1561.9
Current Team ELO
1660.6
1660.6
Current Opponent ELO
1561.9
-98.73
Current ELO Difference
98.73
0.36
Expected score
0.64
83
History Matches
74
0.04
Residual Mean
0.11
53.23
Overperformance
58.96
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.00
1.60
Goals for per game
2.20
0.60
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
2.50
1.70
Goals for per game
2.50
1.70
Goals against per game
1.20
50.0%
Win rate
80.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
0.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.08
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
1.95
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.27
Overall performance9 signals
90
83
Matches
74
1.36
PPG
1.96
36.1%
Win rate
59.5%
27.7%
Draw rate
17.6%
36.1%
Loss rate
23.0%
67.5%
Over 1.5 rate
79.7%
48.2%
Over 2.5 rate
64.9%
28.9%
Over 3.5 rate
45.9%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
Venue performance10 signals
100
42
Matches
34
1.55
PPG
1.82
45.2%
Win rate
52.9%
19.0%
Draw rate
23.5%
35.7%
Loss rate
23.5%
73.8%
Over 1.5 rate
73.5%
52.4%
Over 2.5 rate
64.7%
38.1%
Over 3.5 rate
47.1%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.11
42
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.27
Goals for per game
2.01
72.3%
Scoring rate
81.1%
50.6%
BTTS rate
55.4%
1.48
Goals for per game
2.00
81.0%
Scoring rate
73.5%
54.8%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.75
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
25.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
83
History Matches
74
1.27
Goals Mean
2.01
1.19
Goals Std
1.47
72.3%
Scored 1+ rate
81.1%
33.7%
Scored 2+ rate
59.5%
12.0%
Scored 3+ rate
39.2%
1.48
Venue Goals Mean
2.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.35
Goals against per game
1.27
66.3%
Conceding rate
70.3%
1.45
Goals against per game
1.29
66.7%
Conceding rate
70.6%
0.25
Goals against per game
1.00
25.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
83
History Matches
74
1.35
Conceded Mean
1.27
1.38
Conceded Std
1.17
41.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.5%
15.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.5%
1.45
Venue Conceded Mean
1.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
27.7%
Failed-to-score rate
18.9%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
75.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
33.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
27.7%
Failed-to-score rate
18.9%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
33.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
83
History Matches
74
0.99
Result entropy
0.87
1.76
Goal Difference Std
1.97
0.67
Stability score
13.30
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
82
Eligible Matches
74
22
Lead Matches
33
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
84.8%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.90
26
Trailing Matches
14
23.1%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
11.5%
Trailing Win Rate
28.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
82
Halftime Coverage Matches
74
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
1.03
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.99
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
68
Normal Rest History Matches
67
1.32
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.90
10
Long Rest History Matches
3
1.70
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
3
3.00
PPG
2.00
100.0%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
4
Current Competition Matches
3
3.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
7
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.73
Portability PPG Std
0.39
2.20
Portability PPG Range
1.19
40.51
Portability Score
55.98
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
83
Clean History Matches
74
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-98.73
PPG-0.60
GF-0.75
GA0.08
PPG1.00
PPG-0.28
PPG0.40
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate4.0%
Failed-to-score rate8.8%
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate3.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches9
Goals Mean-0.75
Goals Std-0.27
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.26
Scored 3+ rate-0.27
Venue Goals Mean-0.52
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.50
History Matches9
Conceded Mean0.08
Conceded Std0.22
Clean-sheet rate4.0%
Conceded 2+ rate0.4%
Conceded 3+ rate6.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.16
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.02
History Matches9
Result entropy0.13
Goal Difference Std-0.21
Stability score-12.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.68
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches12
Non-loss rate-0.27
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.34
Portability PPG Range1.01
Portability Score-15.47
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.57
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.30
Current Team ELO-98.73
Current Opponent ELO98.73
Current ELO Difference-197.5
Expected score-0.28
History Matches9
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.73
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dagenham & Redbridge

D
Maidenhead0–0Dagenham & Redbridge31 Oct · away
Pick: Dagenham & Redbridge 40% · missed
L
Braintree2–1Dagenham & Redbridge27 Oct · away
Pick: Dagenham & Redbridge 40% · missed
W
Dagenham & Redbridge2–0Chesham United24 Oct · home
Pick: Dagenham & Redbridge 62% · hit
L
Farnborough2–0Dagenham & Redbridge17 Oct · away
Pick: Dagenham & Redbridge 46% · missed
W
Dagenham & Redbridge1–0Slough Town31 Aug · home
Pick: Dagenham & Redbridge 66% · hit

Billericay Town

W
Billericay Town5–0Hemel Hempstead Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Billericay Town 56% · hit
D
Billericay Town2–2Hampton & Richmond27 Oct · home
Pick: Billericay Town 72% · missed
L
Salisbury1–0Billericay Town31 Aug · away
Pick: Salisbury 49% · hit
D
Billericay Town2–2Tonbridge Angels29 Aug · home
Pick: Billericay Town 57% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Dagenham & Redbridge and Billericay Town meet in National League - South on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Victoria Road, London. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Dagenham & Redbridge win 52.6%, draw 23.2%, Billericay Town win 24.2%. The pick is Dagenham & Redbridge win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.0%. Both teams to score: 49.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.