ScoreProb
UEFA Youth League World Semi-finals 2026

Chelsea U19 vs Flora III

Chelsea U19 Home · Elo 1,541
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Flora III Away · Elo 1,498
Cobham Training Centre Referee: D. Dickinson Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Chelsea U19 win
Chelsea U19 winPick
68.7%
Draw
12.3%
Flora III win
19.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes65.0%
No35.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.576.2%
Under 2.523.8%

How much we know

Chelsea U19 history8 matches
Flora III history3 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (68.7%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Chelsea U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Chelsea U19 are rated 43 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,541 against 1,498. On rating alone Chelsea U19 would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    3.00 goals a game over 8 matches for Chelsea U19, against 3.00 over 3 for Flora III.

  • Chelsea U19 concede fewer

    Chelsea U19 concede 1.38 a game, Flora III 4.33.

  • Flora III games more often go over 2.5 goals

    63% of Chelsea U19 matches, against 100% for Flora III. The model puts this match at 76% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 20 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Chelsea U19
Flora III
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1541.1
ELO
1497.6
8
ELO · Matches
3
1541.1
Current Team ELO
1497.6
1497.6
Current Opponent ELO
1541.1
43.48
Current ELO Difference
-43.48
0.56
Expected score
0.44
8
History Matches
3
0.26
Residual Mean
-0.01
57.35
Overperformance
49.86
0.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
3
1.60
PPG
1.33
2.00
Goals for per game
3.00
0.80
Goals against per game
4.33
40.0%
Win rate
33.3%
8
Matches
3
2.13
PPG
1.33
3.00
Goals for per game
3.00
1.38
Goals against per game
4.33
62.5%
Win rate
33.3%
3.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.00
2.06
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.16
1.38
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
4.33
0.86
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.62
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
1.00
1.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
4.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
8
Matches
3
2.13
PPG
1.33
62.5%
Win rate
33.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
12.5%
Loss rate
33.3%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
62.5%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
4.19
Venue performance10 signals
100
4
Matches
1
2.00
PPG
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
4
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
3.00
Goals for per game
3.00
87.5%
Scoring rate
100.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
3.25
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
8
History Matches
3
3.00
Goals Mean
3.00
2.06
Goals Std
2.16
87.5%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
62.5%
Scored 2+ rate
66.7%
62.5%
Scored 3+ rate
33.3%
3.25
Venue Goals Mean
2.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.38
Goals against per game
4.33
87.5%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.75
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
8
History Matches
3
1.38
Conceded Mean
4.33
0.86
Conceded Std
2.62
37.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
100.0%
12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
66.7%
1.75
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
8
History Matches
3
0.82
Result entropy
1.00
1.87
Goal Difference Std
4.19
18.06
Stability score
0.00
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
8
Eligible Matches
3
2
Lead Matches
1
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
2
Trailing Matches
2
50.0%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
8
Halftime Coverage Matches
3
0.88
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.88
First Half Goals Against Mean
2.00
2.13
Second Half Goals For Mean
2.00
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
2.33
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
251.9
Rest days
76.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
0
Normal Rest History Matches
0
7
Long Rest History Matches
2
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
8
Clean History Matches
3
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO43.48
PPG0.79
GF0.00
GA-2.96
PPG1.00
PPG0.27
PPG0.79
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate12.5%
Failed-to-score rate12.5%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.00
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate-0.13
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate29.2%
Venue Goals Mean1.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.10
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-2.96
Conceded Std-1.77
Clean-sheet rate12.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.63
Conceded 3+ rate-0.54
Venue Conceded Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-2.96
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.77
History Matches5
Result entropy-0.18
Goal Difference Std-2.32
Stability score18.06
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.18
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-2.32
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate50.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-1.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-1.83
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days175.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.00
Current Team ELO43.48
Current Opponent ELO-43.48
Current ELO Difference86.96
Expected score0.12
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.27
Overperformance7.48
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.27

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Chelsea U19

D
Flora III2–2Chelsea U1928 Oct · away
Pick: Chelsea U19 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Flora III

D
Flora III2–2Chelsea U1928 Oct · home
Pick: Chelsea U19 53% · missed
W
HB U191–4Flora III14 Oct · away
Pick: HB U19 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Chelsea U19 and Flora III meet in UEFA Youth League on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Cobham Training Centre. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Chelsea U19 win 68.7%, draw 12.3%, Flora III win 19.0%. The pick is Chelsea U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 76.2%. Both teams to score: 65.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.