Chennaiyin vs East Bengal II
Match result probability Model pick: East Bengal II win
Chennaiyin win
19.2%
Draw
23.0%
East Bengal II winPick
57.8%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes47.1%
No52.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.555.3%
Under 2.544.7%
How much we know
Chennaiyin history23 matches
East Bengal II history28 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours East Bengal II
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 13:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why East Bengal II are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
East Bengal II are rated 155 Elo points higher
Elo 1,587 against 1,432. On rating alone East Bengal II would be expected to take 71% of the points on offer.
-
East Bengal II score far more
0.91 goals a game over 23 matches for Chennaiyin, against 2.21 over 28 for East Bengal II.
-
East Bengal II concede fewer
Chennaiyin concede 1.83 a game, East Bengal II 0.75.
-
East Bengal II games more often go over 2.5 goals
52% of Chennaiyin matches, against 61% for East Bengal II. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 12 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
East Bengal II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1432.0
ELO
1587.3
23
ELO · Matches
28
1432.0
Current Team ELO
1587.3
1587.3
Current Opponent ELO
1432.0
-155.3
Current ELO Difference
155.3
0.29
Expected score
0.71
23
History Matches
28
-0.15
Residual Mean
0.18
41.94
Overperformance
60.46
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.80
0.60
Goals for per game
1.20
2.20
Goals against per game
0.80
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
2.00
0.80
Goals for per game
2.30
1.70
Goals against per game
0.90
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.85
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.37
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.11
Overall performance9 signals 90
23
Matches
28
0.83
PPG
2.00
21.7%
Win rate
53.6%
17.4%
Draw rate
39.3%
60.9%
Loss rate
7.1%
73.9%
Over 1.5 rate
78.6%
52.2%
Over 2.5 rate
60.7%
30.4%
Over 3.5 rate
39.3%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
Venue performance10 signals 100
11
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
2.30
27.3%
Win rate
70.0%
18.2%
Draw rate
20.0%
54.5%
Loss rate
10.0%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
72.7%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
11
History Matches
10
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.91
Goals for per game
2.21
60.9%
Scoring rate
82.1%
47.8%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.18
Goals for per game
2.10
72.7%
Scoring rate
80.0%
63.6%
BTTS rate
40.0%
23
History Matches
28
0.91
Goals Mean
2.21
1.14
Goals Std
1.74
60.9%
Scored 1+ rate
82.1%
13.0%
Scored 2+ rate
60.7%
8.7%
Scored 3+ rate
42.9%
1.18
Venue Goals Mean
2.10
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.83
Goals against per game
0.75
82.6%
Conceding rate
53.6%
1.91
Goals against per game
0.50
81.8%
Conceding rate
50.0%
23
History Matches
28
1.83
Conceded Mean
0.75
1.34
Conceded Std
0.83
52.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
17.9%
30.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.6%
1.91
Venue Conceded Mean
0.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
46.4%
39.1%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
46.4%
39.1%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
46.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
23
History Matches
28
0.85
Result entropy
0.81
1.89
Goal Difference Std
1.99
14.61
Stability score
19.00
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
23
Eligible Matches
28
6
Lead Matches
11
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.85
9
Trailing Matches
5
0.0%
Non-loss rate
100.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
40.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
23
Halftime Coverage Matches
28
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.87
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.39
0.43
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.32
0.96
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.36
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
175.1
Rest days
87.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
12
Normal Rest History Matches
12
1.17
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.42
8
Long Rest History Matches
12
0.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.67
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.49
Portability PPG Std
0.20
1.17
Portability PPG Range
0.49
50.61
Portability Score
71.50
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
23
Clean History Matches
28
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-155.3
PPG-1.17
GF-1.30
GA1.08
PPG-1.30
PPG-1.60
PPG-1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.29
Failed-to-score rate21.3%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.32
Failed-to-score rate7.3%
History Matches-5
Goals Mean-1.30
Goals Std-0.60
Scored 1+ rate-0.21
Scored 2+ rate-0.48
Scored 3+ rate-0.34
Venue Goals Mean-0.92
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.45
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean1.08
Conceded Std0.51
Clean-sheet rate-0.29
Conceded 2+ rate34.3%
Conceded 3+ rate26.9%
Venue Conceded Mean1.41
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.66
History Matches-5
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.10
Stability score-4.39
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.73
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate1.5%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-1.00
Trailing Win Rate-0.40
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean0.48
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.89
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.60
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.29
Portability PPG Range0.68
Portability Score-20.89
Rest days88.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-2.17
Current Team ELO-155.3
Current Opponent ELO155.3
Current ELO Difference-310.7
Expected score-0.42
History Matches-5
Residual Mean-0.33
Overperformance-18.52
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.31
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Chennaiyin
D
Chennaiyin0–0Kerala Blasters31 Oct · home
Pick: Kerala Blasters 39% · missed L
ATK Mohun Bagan1–0Chennaiyin26 Oct · away
Pick: ATK Mohun Bagan 62% · hit L
Bengaluru2–0Chennaiyin17 Oct · away
Pick: Bengaluru 56% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
East Bengal II
D
Al Seeb0–0East Bengal II27 Oct · away
Pick: Al Seeb 67% · missed W
Inter Kashi1–5East Bengal II23 Oct · away
Pick: East Bengal II 43% · hit W
Churchill Brothers0–4East Bengal II18 Oct · away
Pick: East Bengal II 50% · hit L
East Bengal II2–3Al Shorta13 Oct · home
Pick: Al Shorta 54% · hit W
East Bengal II7–2NorthEast United5 Oct · home
Pick: East Bengal II 57% · hit About this match
Chennaiyin and East Bengal II meet in Indian Super League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium, Chennai. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Chennaiyin win 19.2%, draw 23.0%, East Bengal II win 57.8%. The pick is East Bengal II win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.3%. Both teams to score: 47.1%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.