ScoreProb
Persha Liga Ukraine Round 15 2026

Chernihiv vs Kolos Kovalivka II

Chernihiv Home · Elo 1,493
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kolos Kovalivka II Away · Elo 1,561
Chernihiv Arena Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Chernihiv win
Chernihiv winPick
53.5%
Draw
24.7%
Kolos Kovalivka II win
21.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.9%
No51.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.9%
Under 2.555.1%

How much we know

Chernihiv history52 matches
Kolos Kovalivka II history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 0 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 09:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Chernihiv are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kolos Kovalivka II are rated 68 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,561 against 1,493. On rating alone Kolos Kovalivka II would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Kolos Kovalivka II score more

    1.23 goals a game over 52 matches for Chernihiv, against 1.74 over 47 for Kolos Kovalivka II.

  • Defences are close

    Chernihiv concede 1.00 a game, Kolos Kovalivka II 0.98.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    40% of Chernihiv matches, against 43% for Kolos Kovalivka II. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Chernihiv
Kolos Kovalivka II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1493.0
ELO
1561.4
52
ELO · Matches
47
1493.0
Current Team ELO
1561.4
1561.4
Current Opponent ELO
1493.0
-68.46
Current ELO Difference
68.46
0.40
Expected score
0.60
52
History Matches
47
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.06
49.41
Overperformance
54.04
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.60
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
1.20
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.50
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.30
Goals against per game
1.20
10.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.63
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.25
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
0.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.32
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
47
1.40
PPG
1.87
36.5%
Win rate
57.4%
30.8%
Draw rate
14.9%
32.7%
Loss rate
27.7%
71.2%
Over 1.5 rate
74.5%
40.4%
Over 2.5 rate
42.6%
15.4%
Over 3.5 rate
25.5%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
25
1.46
PPG
1.48
38.5%
Win rate
44.0%
30.8%
Draw rate
16.0%
30.8%
Loss rate
40.0%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
68.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
28.0%
26.9%
Over 3.5 rate
16.0%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
26
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.23
Goals for per game
1.74
75.0%
Scoring rate
83.0%
44.2%
BTTS rate
44.7%
1.54
Goals for per game
1.08
88.5%
Scoring rate
72.0%
53.8%
BTTS rate
36.0%
1.25
Goals for per game
0.75
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
52
History Matches
47
1.23
Goals Mean
1.74
1.05
Goals Std
1.59
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
83.0%
30.8%
Scored 2+ rate
40.4%
13.5%
Scored 3+ rate
27.7%
1.54
Venue Goals Mean
1.08
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.00
Goals against per game
0.98
59.6%
Conceding rate
61.7%
1.12
Goals against per game
1.08
61.5%
Conceding rate
64.0%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.75
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
52
History Matches
47
1.00
Conceded Mean
0.98
1.06
Conceded Std
1.04
28.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.5%
7.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.4%
1.12
Venue Conceded Mean
1.08
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
38.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.0%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
36.0%
11.5%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
38.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.0%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
36.0%
11.5%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
38.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
47
1.00
Result entropy
0.87
1.66
Goal Difference Std
2.03
0.23
Stability score
12.84
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
46
16
Lead Matches
14
81.3%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.90
15
Trailing Matches
13
20.0%
Non-loss rate
46.2%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
15.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.39
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.24
0.54
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.83
Rest days
83.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.41
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
18
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.56
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.78
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.00
PPG
0.75
0.0%
Win rate
25.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.22
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.75
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
7
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.73
Portability PPG Std
0.88
1.75
Portability PPG Range
2.32
40.60
Portability Score
36.30
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-68.46
PPG-0.47
GF-0.51
GA0.02
PPG0.25
PPG-0.02
PPG0.80
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate2.1%
Failed-to-score rate8.0%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate2.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.51
Goals Std-0.54
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean0.46
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.80
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.02
Conceded Std0.01
Clean-sheet rate2.1%
Conceded 2+ rate3.3%
Conceded 3+ rate1.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.61
History Matches5
Result entropy0.13
Goal Difference Std-0.37
Stability score-12.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.67
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.26
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.15
Portability PPG Range-0.57
Portability Score4.30
Rest days-7.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.75
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.59
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.22
Current Team ELO-68.46
Current Opponent ELO68.46
Current ELO Difference-136.9
Expected score-0.19
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-4.64
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Chernihiv

W
Chernihiv3–1Yarud Mariupol'1 Nov · home
Pick: Chernihiv 51% · hit
L
Viktoriya Mykolaivka2–1Chernihiv17 Oct · away
Pick: Viktoriya Mykolaivka 49% · hit
W
Trostianets2–4Chernihiv6 Oct · away
Pick: Trostianets 35% · missed
L
Oleksandria1–0Chernihiv29 Aug · away
Pick: Oleksandria 55% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Kolos Kovalivka II

L
Kolos Kovalivka II0–4Metal Kharkiv2 Nov · home
Pick: Kolos Kovalivka II 46% · missed
L
Inhulets2–0Kolos Kovalivka II25 Oct · away
Pick: Inhulets 44% · hit
D
Kolos Kovalivka II0–0UCSA17 Oct · home
Pick: Kolos Kovalivka II 48% · missed
L
Kolos Kovalivka II0–2Oleksandria4 Oct · home
Pick: Oleksandria 51% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Chernihiv and Kolos Kovalivka II meet in Persha Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 09:00 UTC. The match is played at Chernihiv Arena. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Chernihiv win 53.5%, draw 24.7%, Kolos Kovalivka II win 21.8%. The pick is Chernihiv win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.9%. Both teams to score: 48.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.