ScoreProb
Third League - Northeast Bulgaria Northeast - 13 2026

Chernolomets 1919 vs Fratria II

Chernolomets 1919 Home · Elo 1,599
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Fratria II Away · Elo 1,396
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Chernolomets 1919 win
Chernolomets 1919 winPick
83.2%
Draw
9.5%
Fratria II win
7.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.6%
No47.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.576.6%
Under 2.523.4%

How much we know

Chernolomets 1919 history43 matches
Fratria II history39 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 80%+ band (83.2%). Picks in that band won 83.3% of the time, and the model said 84.5% on average, over 162 matches. This band has few matches, so treat the figures with care.

Why Chernolomets 1919 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Chernolomets 1919 are rated 203 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,599 against 1,396. On rating alone Chernolomets 1919 would be expected to take 76% of the points on offer.

  • Chernolomets 1919 score far more

    2.26 goals a game over 43 matches for Chernolomets 1919, against 1.26 over 39 for Fratria II.

  • Chernolomets 1919 concede fewer

    Chernolomets 1919 concede 1.21 a game, Fratria II 2.59.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    74% of Chernolomets 1919 matches, against 69% for Fratria II. The model puts this match at 77% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Chernolomets 1919
Fratria II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1598.6
ELO
1396.0
43
ELO · Matches
39
1598.6
Current Team ELO
1396.0
1396.0
Current Opponent ELO
1598.6
202.7
Current ELO Difference
-202.7
0.76
Expected score
0.24
43
History Matches
39
0.10
Residual Mean
-0.12
57.12
Overperformance
42.07
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.60
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
1.60
Goals against per game
4.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
0.80
2.50
Goals for per game
1.60
1.30
Goals against per game
2.90
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
2.01
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.42
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.90
1.68
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.12
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
3.06
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.52
Overall performance9 signals
90
43
Matches
39
2.02
PPG
0.82
62.8%
Win rate
23.1%
14.0%
Draw rate
12.8%
23.3%
Loss rate
64.1%
88.4%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
74.4%
Over 2.5 rate
69.2%
39.5%
Over 3.5 rate
51.3%
2.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.78
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
17
2.05
PPG
0.71
60.0%
Win rate
17.6%
25.0%
Draw rate
17.6%
15.0%
Loss rate
64.7%
95.0%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
64.7%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
35.3%
2.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
20
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.26
Goals for per game
1.26
86.0%
Scoring rate
61.5%
44.2%
BTTS rate
48.7%
2.50
Goals for per game
0.88
90.0%
Scoring rate
47.1%
55.0%
BTTS rate
35.3%
0.00
Goals for per game
3.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
43
History Matches
39
2.26
Goals Mean
1.26
1.63
Goals Std
1.56
86.0%
Scored 1+ rate
61.5%
62.8%
Scored 2+ rate
30.8%
44.2%
Scored 3+ rate
17.9%
2.50
Venue Goals Mean
0.88
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.21
Goals against per game
2.59
55.8%
Conceding rate
84.6%
0.95
Goals against per game
2.29
60.0%
Conceding rate
82.4%
0.00
Goals against per game
6.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
43
History Matches
39
1.21
Conceded Mean
2.59
1.49
Conceded Std
2.01
27.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
66.7%
20.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
46.2%
0.95
Venue Conceded Mean
2.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
44.2%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
14.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
52.9%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
44.2%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
14.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
52.9%
44.2%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
43
History Matches
39
0.82
Result entropy
0.81
2.58
Goal Difference Std
2.78
17.51
Stability score
19.28
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
11
Eligible Matches
9
3
Lead Matches
1
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
0.0%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.33
3
Trailing Matches
6
0.0%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
11
Halftime Coverage Matches
9
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.33
0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.11
1.09
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
1.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.11
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.88
Rest days
76.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
26
Normal Rest History Matches
16
2.08
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.69
12
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.92
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.78
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-3.00
4
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.36
Portability PPG Std
0.06
0.72
Portability PPG Range
0.12
58.10
Portability Score
89.55
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
43
Clean History Matches
39
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO202.7
PPG1.20
GF1.00
GA-1.38
PPG1.00
PPG1.34
PPG0.80
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate28.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate22.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.43
History Matches4
Goals Mean1.00
Goals Std0.07
Scored 1+ rate24.5%
Scored 2+ rate32.0%
Scored 3+ rate26.2%
Venue Goals Mean1.62
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.40
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-1.38
Conceded Std-0.52
Clean-sheet rate28.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.39
Conceded 3+ rate-0.25
Venue Conceded Mean-1.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.44
History Matches4
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.20
Stability score-1.77
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.46
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate66.7%
Lead Points Retention0.44
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.38
Second Half Goals For Mean0.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.30
Portability PPG Range0.60
Portability Score-31.46
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.75
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.39
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match1.14
Current Team ELO202.7
Current Opponent ELO-202.7
Current ELO Difference405.4
Expected score0.53
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.22
Overperformance15.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Chernolomets 1919

D
Dorostol1–1Chernolomets 191931 Oct · away
Pick: Chernolomets 1919 78% · missed
W
Chernolomets 19193–1Devnya 200524 Oct · home
Pick: Chernolomets 1919 57% · hit
L
Volov Shumen2–1Chernolomets 191921 Oct · away
Pick: Volov Shumen 48% · hit
D
Septemvri Tervel0–0Chernolomets 191917 Oct · away
Pick: Septemvri Tervel 54% · missed
D
Chernolomets 19191–1Aksakovo29 Aug · home
Pick: Chernolomets 1919 70% · missed

Fratria II

L
Septemvri Dragoevo4–1Fratria II24 Oct · away
Pick: Septemvri Dragoevo 69% · hit
L
Fratria II1–2Ustrem Donchevo17 Oct · home
Pick: Ustrem Donchevo 56% · hit
L
Svetkavitsa 144–0Fratria II26 Aug · away
Pick: Svetkavitsa 14 62% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Chernolomets 1919 and Fratria II meet in Third League - Northeast on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Chernolomets 1919 win 83.2%, draw 9.5%, Fratria II win 7.3%. The pick is Chernolomets 1919 win. Over 2.5 goals: 76.6%. Both teams to score: 52.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.