ScoreProb
Third League - Northeast Bulgaria Northeast - 13 2026

Ludogorets III vs Ustrem Donchevo

Ludogorets III Home · Elo 1,668
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ustrem Donchevo Away · Elo 1,504
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ludogorets III win
Ludogorets III winPick
77.7%
Draw
12.9%
Ustrem Donchevo win
9.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.6%
No44.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.576.8%
Under 2.523.2%

How much we know

Ludogorets III history44 matches
Ustrem Donchevo history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (77.7%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Ludogorets III are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ludogorets III are rated 164 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,668 against 1,504. On rating alone Ludogorets III would be expected to take 72% of the points on offer.

  • Ludogorets III score more

    2.73 goals a game over 44 matches for Ludogorets III, against 1.91 over 46 for Ustrem Donchevo.

  • Ludogorets III concede fewer

    Ludogorets III concede 0.64 a game, Ustrem Donchevo 2.11.

  • Ustrem Donchevo games more often go over 2.5 goals

    59% of Ludogorets III matches, against 83% for Ustrem Donchevo. The model puts this match at 77% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ludogorets III
Ustrem Donchevo
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1668.3
ELO
1504.3
44
ELO · Matches
46
1668.3
Current Team ELO
1504.3
1504.3
Current Opponent ELO
1668.3
164.0
Current ELO Difference
-164.0
0.72
Expected score
0.28
44
History Matches
46
0.19
Residual Mean
0.00
62.93
Overperformance
50.27
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.80
1.80
Goals for per game
2.60
0.60
Goals against per game
2.20
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.40
PPG
1.80
3.20
Goals for per game
2.30
0.70
Goals against per game
2.40
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
3.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
2.82
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.42
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.62
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
3.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.74
Overall performance9 signals
90
44
Matches
46
2.36
PPG
1.43
75.0%
Win rate
43.5%
11.4%
Draw rate
13.0%
13.6%
Loss rate
43.5%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
89.1%
59.1%
Over 2.5 rate
82.6%
40.9%
Over 3.5 rate
58.7%
2.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.64
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
23
2.50
PPG
1.13
77.3%
Win rate
34.8%
18.2%
Draw rate
8.7%
4.5%
Loss rate
56.5%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
87.0%
59.1%
Over 2.5 rate
82.6%
40.9%
Over 3.5 rate
52.2%
2.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.24
22
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.73
Goals for per game
1.91
86.4%
Scoring rate
76.1%
43.2%
BTTS rate
67.4%
2.77
Goals for per game
1.57
90.9%
Scoring rate
73.9%
50.0%
BTTS rate
69.6%
2.00
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
44
History Matches
46
2.73
Goals Mean
1.91
2.35
Goals Std
1.64
86.4%
Scored 1+ rate
76.1%
65.9%
Scored 2+ rate
47.8%
47.7%
Scored 3+ rate
39.1%
2.77
Venue Goals Mean
1.57
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.64
Goals against per game
2.11
54.5%
Conceding rate
87.0%
0.59
Goals against per game
2.09
54.5%
Conceding rate
95.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
4.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
44
History Matches
46
0.64
Conceded Mean
2.11
0.68
Conceded Std
1.64
6.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.3%
2.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
34.8%
0.59
Venue Conceded Mean
2.09
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
13.0%
13.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.9%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
4.3%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
13.0%
13.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.9%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
4.3%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
13.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
44
History Matches
46
0.67
Result entropy
0.90
2.59
Goal Difference Std
2.64
33.13
Stability score
9.89
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
6
Eligible Matches
7
3
Lead Matches
2
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
1.00
0
Trailing Matches
3
—
Non-loss rate
33.3%
—
Trailing Win Rate
33.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
6
Halftime Coverage Matches
7
0.83
First Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.29
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.14
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.88
Rest days
76.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
25
Normal Rest History Matches
30
2.48
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.57
15
Long Rest History Matches
13
2.13
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
0.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.31
0.37
Portability PPG Range
0.63
73.08
Portability Score
61.46
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
44
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreNon-loss rateTrailing Win Rate
ELO164.0
PPG0.93
GF0.81
GA-1.47
PPG3.00
PPG1.37
PPG0.60
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate32.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate41.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.81
Goals Std0.71
Scored 1+ rate10.3%
Scored 2+ rate18.1%
Scored 3+ rate8.6%
Venue Goals Mean1.21
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std1.40
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-1.47
Conceded Std-0.97
Clean-sheet rate32.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.48
Conceded 3+ rate-0.33
Venue Conceded Mean-1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.72
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.23
Goal Difference Std-0.05
Stability score23.24
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.16
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.50
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.33
Lead Points Retention-0.22
Trailing Matches-3
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-1.12
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.13
Portability PPG Range-0.26
Portability Score11.63
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.83
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.91
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match1.13
Current Team ELO164.0
Current Opponent ELO-164.0
Current ELO Difference328.0
Expected score0.44
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.18
Overperformance12.66
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ludogorets III

W
Ludogorets III3–0Dorostol24 Oct · home
Pick: Ludogorets III 88% · hit
W
Benkovski Isperih0–1Ludogorets III21 Oct · away
Pick: Ludogorets III 45% · hit
W
Devnya 20050–3Ludogorets III17 Oct · away
Pick: Ludogorets III 45% · hit
W
Ludogorets III5–1Olympic Varna30 Aug · home
Pick: Ludogorets III 79% · hit
L
Aksakovo6–1Ludogorets III26 Aug · away
Pick: Ludogorets III 68% · missed

Ustrem Donchevo

W
Ustrem Donchevo4–2Septemvri Dragoevo31 Oct · home
Pick: Ustrem Donchevo 41% · hit
W
Fratria II1–2Ustrem Donchevo17 Oct · away
Pick: Ustrem Donchevo 56% · hit
L
Ustrem Donchevo2–3Svetkavitsa 1429 Aug · home
Pick: Ustrem Donchevo 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Ludogorets III and Ustrem Donchevo meet in Third League - Northeast on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Ludogorets III win 77.7%, draw 12.9%, Ustrem Donchevo win 9.4%. The pick is Ludogorets III win. Over 2.5 goals: 76.8%. Both teams to score: 55.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.