ScoreProb
Third League - Northeast Bulgaria Northeast - 13 2026

Olympic Varna vs Benkovski Isperih

Olympic Varna Home · Elo 1,469
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Benkovski Isperih Away · Elo 1,541
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Benkovski Isperih win
Olympic Varna win
24.1%
Draw
18.7%
Benkovski Isperih winPick
57.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes66.2%
No33.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.571.4%
Under 2.528.6%

How much we know

Olympic Varna history23 matches
Benkovski Isperih history44 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Benkovski Isperih are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Benkovski Isperih are rated 71 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,541 against 1,469. On rating alone Benkovski Isperih would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.91 goals a game over 23 matches for Olympic Varna, against 1.93 over 44 for Benkovski Isperih.

  • Benkovski Isperih concede fewer

    Olympic Varna concede 2.70 a game, Benkovski Isperih 1.55.

  • Olympic Varna games more often go over 2.5 goals

    83% of Olympic Varna matches, against 57% for Benkovski Isperih. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Olympic Varna
Benkovski Isperih
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1469.3
ELO
1540.8
23
ELO · Matches
44
1469.3
Current Team ELO
1540.8
1540.8
Current Opponent ELO
1469.3
-71.49
Current ELO Difference
71.49
0.40
Expected score
0.60
23
History Matches
44
-0.07
Residual Mean
0.05
46.35
Overperformance
53.19
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.80
2.40
Goals for per game
1.60
3.00
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.50
1.60
Goals for per game
1.50
3.00
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.62
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.63
3.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
2.61
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
3.69
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.81
Overall performance9 signals
90
23
Matches
44
1.17
PPG
1.52
34.8%
Win rate
43.2%
13.0%
Draw rate
22.7%
52.2%
Loss rate
34.1%
95.7%
Over 1.5 rate
79.5%
82.6%
Over 2.5 rate
56.8%
60.9%
Over 3.5 rate
43.2%
3.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.38
Venue performance10 signals
100
11
Matches
22
1.18
PPG
1.41
36.4%
Win rate
36.4%
9.1%
Draw rate
31.8%
54.5%
Loss rate
31.8%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
81.8%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
54.5%
Over 3.5 rate
45.5%
3.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
11
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.91
Goals for per game
1.93
69.6%
Scoring rate
81.8%
60.9%
BTTS rate
54.5%
2.36
Goals for per game
1.73
81.8%
Scoring rate
95.5%
72.7%
BTTS rate
72.7%
4.00
Goals for per game
—
100.0%
Scoring rate
—
100.0%
BTTS rate
—
23
History Matches
44
1.91
Goals Mean
1.93
2.36
Goals Std
1.97
69.6%
Scored 1+ rate
81.8%
43.5%
Scored 2+ rate
45.5%
34.8%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
2.36
Venue Goals Mean
1.73
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.70
Goals against per game
1.55
87.0%
Conceding rate
68.2%
2.18
Goals against per game
1.64
90.9%
Conceding rate
72.7%
3.00
Goals against per game
—
100.0%
Conceding rate
—
23
History Matches
44
2.70
Conceded Mean
1.55
2.20
Conceded Std
1.39
73.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.7%
34.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.0%
2.18
Venue Conceded Mean
1.64
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
13.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
9.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
4.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
—
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
—
13.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
9.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
4.5%
13.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
23
History Matches
44
0.89
Result entropy
0.97
3.86
Goal Difference Std
2.38
11.48
Stability score
2.95
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
6
Eligible Matches
12
1
Lead Matches
4
0.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.00
Lead Points Retention
0.83
2
Trailing Matches
3
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
6
Halftime Coverage Matches
12
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.42
1.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.92
1.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.88
Rest days
160.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
4
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.75
13
Normal Rest History Matches
26
0.77
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
8
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.63
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.69
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
0
3.00
PPG
—
100.0%
Win rate
—
0.0%
Draw rate
—
0.0%
Loss rate
—
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
—
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
—
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
—
1
Current Competition Matches
0
3.00
Current Competition PPG
—
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
—
2
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.47
—
Portability PPG Range
0.93
—
Portability Score
51.72
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
23
Clean History Matches
44
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-71.49
PPG-0.35
GF-0.02
GA1.15
PPG-0.23
PPG0.00
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-21
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate12.3%
History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate13.6%
History Matches-21
Goals Mean-0.02
Goals Std0.39
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate9.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.64
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches-21
Conceded Mean1.15
Conceded Std0.81
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Conceded 2+ rate26.2%
Conceded 3+ rate9.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.55
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.41
History Matches-21
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std1.48
Stability score8.54
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.88
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.75
Lead Points Retention-0.83
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean0.58
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.33
Current Competition Matches1
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days-84.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match2.25
Normal Rest History Matches-13
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.73
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Current Team ELO-71.49
Current Opponent ELO71.49
Current ELO Difference-143.0
Expected score-0.20
History Matches-21
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-6.85
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Olympic Varna

L
Volov Shumen2–1Olympic Varna31 Oct · away
Pick: Volov Shumen 73% · hit
W
Olympic Varna2–0Riltzi24 Oct · home
Pick: Olympic Varna 55% · hit
L
Svetkavitsa 143–0Olympic Varna17 Oct · away
Pick: Svetkavitsa 14 60% · hit
L
Ludogorets III5–1Olympic Varna30 Aug · away
Pick: Ludogorets III 79% · hit
W
Olympic Varna4–1Septemvri Dragoevo26 Aug · home
Pick: Olympic Varna 49% · hit

Benkovski Isperih

W
Benkovski Isperih4–1Aksakovo31 Oct · home
Pick: Benkovski Isperih 51% · hit
L
Cherno more II4–2Benkovski Isperih24 Oct · away
Pick: Cherno more II 40% · hit
L
Benkovski Isperih0–1Ludogorets III21 Oct · home
Pick: Ludogorets III 45% · hit
W
Benkovski Isperih2–0Chernomorets Balchik18 Oct · home
Pick: Chernomorets Balchik 54% · missed
L
Benkovski Isperih0–3Akademik Svishtov4 Oct · home
Pick: Benkovski Isperih 53% · missed

About this match

Olympic Varna and Benkovski Isperih meet in Third League - Northeast on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Olympic Varna win 24.1%, draw 18.7%, Benkovski Isperih win 57.1%. The pick is Benkovski Isperih win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.4%. Both teams to score: 66.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.