ScoreProb
Primera A Colombia Round 18 2026

Chico vs Internacional de Bogota

Chico Home · Elo 1,423
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Internacional de Bogota Away · Elo 1,474
Estadio La Independencia, Tunja Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 07:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Chico win
Chico winPick
39.4%
Draw
23.2%
Internacional de Bogota win
37.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.6%
No50.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.7%
Under 2.554.3%

How much we know

Chico history55 matches
Internacional de Bogota history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 4 d 15 h ahead
    2 Nov · 07:56 UTC
  2. Re-published 7 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 23:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Chico are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Internacional de Bogota are rated 51 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,474 against 1,423. On rating alone Internacional de Bogota would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Internacional de Bogota score more

    0.84 goals a game over 55 matches for Chico, against 0.98 over 56 for Internacional de Bogota.

  • Defences are close

    Chico concede 1.47 a game, Internacional de Bogota 1.54.

  • Internacional de Bogota games more often go over 2.5 goals

    40% of Chico matches, against 50% for Internacional de Bogota. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Chico
Internacional de Bogota
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1422.7
ELO
1473.5
55
ELO · Matches
56
1422.7
Current Team ELO
1473.5
1473.5
Current Opponent ELO
1422.7
-50.84
Current ELO Difference
50.84
0.43
Expected score
0.57
55
History Matches
56
-0.07
Residual Mean
-0.01
44.92
Overperformance
49.27
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.60
0.40
Goals for per game
1.40
2.60
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.10
1.00
Goals for per game
1.10
1.70
Goals against per game
2.00
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.41
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.54
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
2.15
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.90
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
3.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.02
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
56
0.95
PPG
1.02
21.8%
Win rate
26.8%
29.1%
Draw rate
21.4%
49.1%
Loss rate
51.8%
65.5%
Over 1.5 rate
69.6%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
21.8%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
25
1.48
PPG
0.64
37.0%
Win rate
12.0%
37.0%
Draw rate
28.0%
25.9%
Loss rate
60.0%
51.9%
Over 1.5 rate
88.0%
29.6%
Over 2.5 rate
64.0%
18.5%
Over 3.5 rate
28.0%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
27
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.84
Goals for per game
0.98
52.7%
Scoring rate
60.7%
32.7%
BTTS rate
48.2%
1.15
Goals for per game
0.92
66.7%
Scoring rate
68.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
68.0%
0.68
Goals for per game
1.24
36.8%
Scoring rate
66.7%
15.8%
BTTS rate
57.1%
55
History Matches
56
0.84
Goals Mean
0.98
1.06
Goals Std
1.04
52.7%
Scored 1+ rate
60.7%
20.0%
Scored 2+ rate
25.0%
5.5%
Scored 3+ rate
8.9%
1.15
Venue Goals Mean
0.92
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.47
Goals against per game
1.54
69.1%
Conceding rate
76.8%
0.78
Goals against per game
2.04
51.9%
Conceding rate
92.0%
1.79
Goals against per game
1.67
78.9%
Conceding rate
76.2%
55
History Matches
56
1.47
Conceded Mean
1.54
1.46
Conceded Std
1.32
41.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.4%
20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.6%
0.78
Venue Conceded Mean
2.04
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.2%
47.3%
Failed-to-score rate
39.3%
48.1%
Clean-sheet rate
8.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
63.2%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
30.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.2%
47.3%
Failed-to-score rate
39.3%
48.1%
Clean-sheet rate
8.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
30.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
56
0.95
Result entropy
0.93
2.00
Goal Difference Std
1.72
5.28
Stability score
6.82
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
55
8
Lead Matches
7
62.5%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.71
Lead Points Retention
0.86
21
Trailing Matches
20
19.0%
Non-loss rate
15.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.51
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.08
Rest days
74.99
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
27
Normal Rest History Matches
26
0.78
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.96
25
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.04
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.04
Competition & season17 signals
170
19
Matches
21
0.74
PPG
1.29
21.1%
Win rate
33.3%
10.5%
Draw rate
28.6%
68.4%
Loss rate
38.1%
63.2%
Over 1.5 rate
76.2%
42.1%
Over 2.5 rate
61.9%
21.1%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
19
Current Competition Matches
21
0.74
Current Competition PPG
1.29
-1.11
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.43
4
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.53
0.51
Portability PPG Range
1.29
73.29
Portability Score
48.72
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-50.84
PPG-0.07
GF-0.15
GA-0.06
PPG-0.55
PPG0.84
PPG-1.40
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate7.7%
Failed-to-score rate8.0%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate40.1%
Failed-to-score rate1.3%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.15
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.23
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.88
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.06
Conceded Std0.14
Clean-sheet rate7.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate0.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-1.26
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.25
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.28
Stability score-1.54
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.01
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.23
Lead Points Retention-0.15
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate4.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG-0.55
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.68
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.34
Portability PPG Range-0.77
Portability Score24.57
Rest days2.09
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.18
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.00
Current Team ELO-50.84
Current Opponent ELO50.84
Current ELO Difference-101.7
Expected score-0.15
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.35
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Chico

D
Chico1–1Junior28 Oct · home
Pick: Junior 47% · missed
W
Chico1–0Bucaramanga23 Oct · home
Pick: Bucaramanga 49% · missed
L
Deportivo Pereira2–0Chico20 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo Pereira 56% · hit
L
Chico1–4Atletico Nacional17 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico Nacional 70% · hit
D
Águilas Doradas2–2Chico30 Aug · away
Pick: Águilas Doradas 59% · missed

Internacional de Bogota

W
Internacional de Bogota3–1Independiente Medellin29 Oct · home
Pick: Independiente Medellin 43% · missed
L
Alianza Valledupar1–0Internacional de Bogota25 Oct · away
Pick: Alianza Valledupar 46% · hit
W
Internacional de Bogota4–1Llaneros15 Oct · home
Pick: Internacional de Bogota 36% · hit
D
Millonarios0–0Internacional de Bogota30 Aug · away
Pick: Millonarios 59% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Chico and Internacional de Bogota meet in Primera A on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 23:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio La Independencia, Tunja. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 07:56 UTC: Chico win 39.4%, draw 23.2%, Internacional de Bogota win 37.4%. The pick is Chico win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.7%. Both teams to score: 49.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.