ScoreProb
Primera A Colombia Round 18 2026

Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin

Fortaleza FC Home · Elo 1,475
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Independiente Medellin Away · Elo 1,555
Estadio Metropolitano de Techo Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Fortaleza FC win
Fortaleza FC winPick
38.5%
Draw
30.4%
Independiente Medellin win
31.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.6%
No50.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.541.9%
Under 2.558.1%

How much we know

Fortaleza FC history62 matches
Independiente Medellin history73 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 16 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 01:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Fortaleza FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Independiente Medellin are rated 80 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,555 against 1,475. On rating alone Independiente Medellin would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Independiente Medellin score more

    0.95 goals a game over 62 matches for Fortaleza FC, against 1.23 over 73 for Independiente Medellin.

  • Independiente Medellin concede fewer

    Fortaleza FC concede 1.27 a game, Independiente Medellin 0.97.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    39% of Fortaleza FC matches, against 40% for Independiente Medellin. The model puts this match at 42% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Fortaleza FC
Independiente Medellin
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1474.9
ELO
1555.1
62
ELO · Matches
73
1474.9
Current Team ELO
1555.1
1555.1
Current Opponent ELO
1474.9
-80.24
Current ELO Difference
80.24
0.39
Expected score
0.61
62
History Matches
73
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.03
48.34
Overperformance
52.60
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.70
1.20
Goals for per game
1.50
1.00
Goals against per game
1.30
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.87
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
73
1.15
PPG
1.56
27.4%
Win rate
41.1%
32.3%
Draw rate
32.9%
40.3%
Loss rate
26.0%
66.1%
Over 1.5 rate
65.8%
38.7%
Over 2.5 rate
39.7%
19.4%
Over 3.5 rate
19.2%
1.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.24
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
38
1.70
PPG
1.37
46.7%
Win rate
34.2%
30.0%
Draw rate
34.2%
23.3%
Loss rate
31.6%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
60.5%
36.7%
Over 2.5 rate
36.8%
10.0%
Over 3.5 rate
18.4%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
30
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.95
Goals for per game
1.23
66.1%
Scoring rate
75.3%
48.4%
BTTS rate
53.4%
1.17
Goals for per game
1.03
76.7%
Scoring rate
65.8%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.21
Goals for per game
1.37
84.2%
Scoring rate
84.2%
68.4%
BTTS rate
63.2%
62
History Matches
73
0.95
Goals Mean
1.23
0.85
Goals Std
0.99
66.1%
Scored 1+ rate
75.3%
25.8%
Scored 2+ rate
32.9%
1.6%
Scored 3+ rate
15.1%
1.17
Venue Goals Mean
1.03
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.27
Goals against per game
0.97
69.4%
Conceding rate
67.1%
0.93
Goals against per game
1.05
60.0%
Conceding rate
68.4%
1.42
Goals against per game
1.37
73.7%
Conceding rate
73.7%
62
History Matches
73
1.27
Conceded Mean
0.97
1.19
Conceded Std
0.88
37.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.7%
12.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.1%
0.93
Venue Conceded Mean
1.05
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.9%
33.9%
Failed-to-score rate
24.7%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
34.2%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.9%
33.9%
Failed-to-score rate
24.7%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
34.2%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
73
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
1.42
Goal Difference Std
1.24
1.15
Stability score
1.56
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
71
13
Lead Matches
17
53.8%
Lead Win Rate
88.2%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.92
20
Trailing Matches
18
25.0%
Non-loss rate
38.9%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
71
0.45
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.25
Rest days
75.99
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
7
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
26
Normal Rest History Matches
43
1.08
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
32
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.13
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.91
Competition & season17 signals
170
19
Matches
19
1.21
PPG
1.32
31.6%
Win rate
36.8%
26.3%
Draw rate
21.1%
42.1%
Loss rate
42.1%
78.9%
Over 1.5 rate
68.4%
57.9%
Over 2.5 rate
57.9%
21.1%
Over 3.5 rate
36.8%
1.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.12
19
Current Competition Matches
19
1.21
Current Competition PPG
1.32
-0.21
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
4
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.17
Portability PPG Std
0.22
0.47
Portability PPG Range
0.68
74.90
Portability Score
69.70
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
73
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-80.24
PPG-0.42
GF-0.28
GA0.30
PPG-0.11
PPG0.33
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate9.2%
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate8.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-11
Goals Mean-0.28
Goals Std-0.14
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.04
History Matches-11
Conceded Mean0.30
Conceded Std0.32
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate12.4%
Conceded 3+ rate8.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.25
History Matches-11
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.18
Stability score-0.41
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.53
Eligible Matches-9
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.34
Lead Points Retention-0.25
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-9
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.11
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.21
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.21
Portability Score5.20
Rest days-0.74
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-17
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Long Rest History Matches10
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.78
Current Team ELO-80.24
Current Opponent ELO80.24
Current ELO Difference-160.5
Expected score-0.23
History Matches-11
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Fortaleza FC

L
Águilas Doradas1–0Fortaleza FC2 Nov · away
Pick: Águilas Doradas 43% · hit
D
Fortaleza FC1–1Deportivo Cali25 Oct · home
Pick: Fortaleza FC 35% · missed
D
Deportivo Pasto0–0Fortaleza FC4 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo Pasto 42% · missed
D
Chico0–0Fortaleza FC26 Aug · away
Pick: Fortaleza FC 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Independiente Medellin

W
Independiente Medellin2–1Alianza Valledupar1 Nov · home
Pick: Independiente Medellin 54% · hit
L
Internacional de Bogota3–1Independiente Medellin29 Oct · away
Pick: Independiente Medellin 43% · missed
L
Atletico Nacional2–1Independiente Medellin25 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico Nacional 59% · hit
L
Independiente Medellin0–2Once Caldas18 Oct · home
Pick: Once Caldas 37% · hit
L
Atletico Nacional3–2Independiente Medellin15 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico Nacional 58% · hit

About this match

Fortaleza FC and Independiente Medellin meet in Primera A on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 01:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Fortaleza FC win 38.5%, draw 30.4%, Independiente Medellin win 31.1%. The pick is Fortaleza FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.9%. Both teams to score: 49.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.