ScoreProb
Liga Mayor Dominican Republic Round 14 2026

Cibao vs Salcedo

Cibao Home · Elo 1,634
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Salcedo Away · Elo 1,579
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cibao win
Cibao winPick
42.9%
Draw
25.2%
Salcedo win
31.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.2%
No52.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.4%
Under 2.551.6%

How much we know

Cibao history49 matches
Salcedo history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Cibao are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Cibao are rated 55 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,634 against 1,579. On rating alone Cibao would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Cibao score more

    1.78 goals a game over 49 matches for Cibao, against 1.59 over 46 for Salcedo.

  • Cibao concede fewer

    Cibao concede 0.76 a game, Salcedo 1.09.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    49% of Cibao matches, against 50% for Salcedo. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cibao
Salcedo@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1634.2
ELO
1579.3
49
ELO · Matches
46
1634.2
Current Team ELO
1579.3
1579.3
Current Opponent ELO
1634.2
54.98
Current ELO Difference
-54.98
0.58
Expected score
0.42
49
History Matches
46
0.13
Residual Mean
0.09
59.19
Overperformance
55.97
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
0.60
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.90
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
0.70
Goals against per game
0.90
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.27
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
46
2.02
PPG
1.67
59.2%
Win rate
47.8%
24.5%
Draw rate
23.9%
16.3%
Loss rate
28.3%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
65.2%
49.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
22.4%
Over 3.5 rate
30.4%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
23
2.00
PPG
1.35
56.5%
Win rate
34.8%
30.4%
Draw rate
30.4%
13.0%
Loss rate
34.8%
60.9%
Over 1.5 rate
65.2%
34.8%
Over 2.5 rate
65.2%
21.7%
Over 3.5 rate
39.1%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
23
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.78
Goals for per game
1.59
77.6%
Scoring rate
80.4%
38.8%
BTTS rate
45.7%
1.70
Goals for per game
1.70
69.6%
Scoring rate
69.6%
30.4%
BTTS rate
52.2%
1.00
Goals for per game
3.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
49
History Matches
46
1.78
Goals Mean
1.59
1.56
Goals Std
1.36
77.6%
Scored 1+ rate
80.4%
51.0%
Scored 2+ rate
43.5%
24.5%
Scored 3+ rate
19.6%
1.70
Venue Goals Mean
1.70
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.76
Goals against per game
1.09
53.1%
Conceding rate
58.7%
0.57
Goals against per game
1.39
43.5%
Conceding rate
69.6%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
49
History Matches
46
0.76
Conceded Mean
1.09
0.85
Conceded Std
1.18
18.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.8%
4.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.7%
0.57
Venue Conceded Mean
1.39
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
46.9%
Clean-sheet rate
41.3%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
19.6%
56.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
46.9%
Clean-sheet rate
41.3%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
19.6%
56.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
46.9%
Clean-sheet rate
41.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
46
0.87
Result entropy
0.96
1.95
Goal Difference Std
1.65
13.45
Stability score
4.24
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
46
21
Lead Matches
18
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.93
9
Trailing Matches
10
33.3%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
0.87
0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
1.04
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.88
Rest days
76.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
25
Normal Rest History Matches
18
2.04
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.39
21
Long Rest History Matches
23
2.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.96
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
1
1.50
PPG
3.00
50.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
2
Current Competition Matches
1
1.50
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
6
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.08
Portability PPG Std
0.05
0.17
Portability PPG Range
0.09
86.02
Portability Score
91.62
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO54.98
PPG0.35
GF0.19
GA-0.33
PPG-1.50
PPG0.65
PPG0.00
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate5.6%
Failed-to-score rate2.9%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate26.1%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.19
Goals Std0.19
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate7.5%
Scored 3+ rate4.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.06
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.33
Conceded Std-0.33
Clean-sheet rate5.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.16
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.19
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std0.30
Stability score9.21
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.06
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate13.3%
Trailing Win Rate11.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.50
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.04
Portability PPG Range0.08
Portability Score-5.60
Rest days-2.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.25
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.65
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.09
Current Team ELO54.98
Current Opponent ELO-54.98
Current ELO Difference110.0
Expected score0.16
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Cibao

L
Universidad O&M3–2Cibao31 Oct · away
Pick: Cibao 76% · missed
W
Cibao2–1Moca25 Oct · home
Pick: Cibao 60% · hit
W
Delfines Del Este1–2Cibao4 Oct · away
Pick: Delfines Del Este 39% · missed
W
Atlántico1–4Cibao29 Aug · away
Pick: Cibao 62% · hit
L
Cibao0–1Delfines Del Este25 Aug · home
Pick: Cibao 58% · missed

Salcedo

W
Salcedo3–2Jarabacoa1 Nov · home
Pick: Salcedo 81% · hit
W
Delfines Del Este1–2Salcedo25 Oct · away
Pick: Delfines Del Este 36% · missed
W
Salcedo2–1Atlántico17 Oct · home
Pick: Salcedo 67% · hit
W
Salcedo1–0Moca4 Oct · home
Pick: Salcedo 61% · hit
W
Salcedo3–1Vega Real30 Aug · home
Pick: Salcedo 65% · hit

About this match

Cibao and Salcedo meet in Liga Mayor on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Cibao win 42.9%, draw 25.2%, Salcedo win 31.9%. The pick is Cibao win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.4%. Both teams to score: 47.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.