Delfines Del Este vs Moca
Match result probability Model pick: Delfines Del Este win
Delfines Del Este winPick
54.5%
Draw
27.0%
Moca win
18.4%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes40.6%
No59.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.539.9%
Under 2.560.1%
How much we know
Delfines Del Este history52 matches
Moca history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Delfines Del Este
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 19:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 20:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.5%). Picks in that band won 55.7% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,755 matches.
Why Delfines Del Este are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Delfines Del Este are rated 99 Elo points higher
Elo 1,573 against 1,473. On rating alone Delfines Del Este would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.
-
Delfines Del Este score far more
1.29 goals a game over 52 matches for Delfines Del Este, against 0.84 over 43 for Moca.
-
Delfines Del Este concede fewer
Delfines Del Este concede 0.79 a game, Moca 1.16.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
29% of Delfines Del Este matches, against 30% for Moca. The model puts this match at 40% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Moca@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1572.7
ELO
1473.3
52
ELO · Matches
43
1572.7
Current Team ELO
1473.3
1473.3
Current Opponent ELO
1572.7
99.38
Current ELO Difference
-99.38
0.64
Expected score
0.36
52
History Matches
43
0.07
Residual Mean
-0.04
54.99
Overperformance
47.48
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.20
0.20
Goals for per game
0.80
0.40
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.70
0.80
Goals for per game
0.70
0.60
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
10.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.78
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
0.98
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.10
Overall performance9 signals 90
52
Matches
43
1.62
PPG
1.19
42.3%
Win rate
30.2%
34.6%
Draw rate
27.9%
23.1%
Loss rate
41.9%
57.7%
Over 1.5 rate
55.8%
28.8%
Over 2.5 rate
30.2%
19.2%
Over 3.5 rate
23.3%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.38
Venue performance10 signals 100
26
Matches
23
1.81
PPG
1.13
50.0%
Win rate
26.1%
30.8%
Draw rate
34.8%
19.2%
Loss rate
39.1%
65.4%
Over 1.5 rate
60.9%
34.6%
Over 2.5 rate
26.1%
23.1%
Over 3.5 rate
17.4%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
26
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.29
Goals for per game
0.84
65.4%
Scoring rate
58.1%
38.5%
BTTS rate
34.9%
1.62
Goals for per game
0.83
73.1%
Scoring rate
52.2%
38.5%
BTTS rate
34.8%
0.50
Goals for per game
0.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
52
History Matches
43
1.29
Goals Mean
0.84
1.39
Goals Std
0.86
65.4%
Scored 1+ rate
58.1%
36.5%
Scored 2+ rate
20.9%
15.4%
Scored 3+ rate
4.7%
1.62
Venue Goals Mean
0.83
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
0.79
Goals against per game
1.16
57.7%
Conceding rate
67.4%
0.81
Goals against per game
1.09
53.8%
Conceding rate
69.6%
0.00
Goals against per game
0.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
52
History Matches
43
0.79
Conceded Mean
1.16
0.79
Conceded Std
1.03
19.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.9%
1.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.0%
0.81
Venue Conceded Mean
1.09
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
42.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.6%
34.6%
Failed-to-score rate
41.9%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
47.8%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
42.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.6%
34.6%
Failed-to-score rate
41.9%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
47.8%
42.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
52
History Matches
43
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
1.49
Goal Difference Std
1.38
2.65
Stability score
1.48
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
52
Eligible Matches
42
20
Lead Matches
11
85.0%
Lead Win Rate
90.9%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.94
11
Trailing Matches
17
36.4%
Non-loss rate
11.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
42
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
73.88
Rest days
77.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
20
Normal Rest History Matches
20
2.15
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.85
25
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.44
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.43
Competition & season17 signals 170
2
Matches
1
2.00
PPG
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
2
Current Competition Matches
1
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.31
Portability PPG Std
0.46
0.75
Portability PPG Range
1.11
61.97
Portability Score
51.97
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
52
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO99.38
PPG0.43
GF0.45
GA-0.37
PPG1.00
PPG0.68
PPG-0.20
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate9.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate15.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches9
Goals Mean0.45
Goals Std0.53
Scored 1+ rate7.2%
Scored 2+ rate15.6%
Scored 3+ rate10.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.79
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.09
History Matches9
Conceded Mean-0.37
Conceded Std-0.24
Clean-sheet rate9.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.16
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-0.28
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.53
History Matches9
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.11
Stability score1.17
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.12
Eligible Matches10
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate24.6%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches10
First Half Goals For Mean0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.16
Portability PPG Range-0.36
Portability Score10.00
Rest days-4.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.30
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.01
Current Team ELO99.38
Current Opponent ELO-99.38
Current ELO Difference198.8
Expected score0.28
History Matches9
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance7.51
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Delfines Del Este
D
Vega Real1–1Delfines Del Este1 Nov · away
Pick: Delfines Del Este 52% · missed L
Delfines Del Este1–2Salcedo25 Oct · home
Pick: Delfines Del Este 36% · missed L
Delfines Del Este1–2Cibao4 Oct · home
Pick: Delfines Del Este 39% · missed W
Delfines Del Este1–0Jarabacoa29 Aug · home
Pick: Delfines Del Este 80% · hit W
Cibao0–1Delfines Del Este25 Aug · away
Pick: Cibao 58% · missed Moca
W
Moca3–1Atlántico31 Oct · home
Pick: Moca 53% · hit L
Cibao2–1Moca25 Oct · away
Pick: Cibao 60% · hit L
Salcedo1–0Moca4 Oct · away
Pick: Salcedo 61% · hit D
Universidad O&M0–0Moca30 Aug · away
Pick: Moca 50% · missed D
Moca0–0Salcedo26 Aug · home
Pick: Salcedo 40% · missed About this match
Delfines Del Este and Moca meet in Liga Mayor on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Delfines Del Este win 54.5%, draw 27.0%, Moca win 18.4%. The pick is Delfines Del Este win. Over 2.5 goals: 39.9%. Both teams to score: 40.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.