ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone D Italy Group D - 11 2026

Cittadella Vis Modena vs Pavia

Cittadella Vis Modena Home · Elo 1,538
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Pavia Away · Elo 1,485
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cittadella Vis Modena win
Cittadella Vis Modena winPick
52.6%
Draw
24.9%
Pavia win
22.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.9%
No52.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.0%
Under 2.550.0%

How much we know

Cittadella Vis Modena history50 matches
Pavia history38 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Cittadella Vis Modena are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Cittadella Vis Modena are rated 53 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,538 against 1,485. On rating alone Cittadella Vis Modena would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.18 goals a game over 50 matches for Cittadella Vis Modena, against 1.08 over 38 for Pavia.

  • Cittadella Vis Modena concede fewer

    Cittadella Vis Modena concede 1.04 a game, Pavia 1.42.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    38% of Cittadella Vis Modena matches, against 45% for Pavia. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 2 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cittadella Vis Modena
Pavia
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1538.4
ELO
1485.2
50
ELO · Matches
38
1538.4
Current Team ELO
1485.2
1485.2
Current Opponent ELO
1538.4
53.14
Current ELO Difference
-53.14
0.58
Expected score
0.42
50
History Matches
38
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.02
52.45
Overperformance
48.86
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
0.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.60
0.60
Goals for per game
1.10
1.10
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.51
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.89
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.86
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.17
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
38
1.54
PPG
1.16
42.0%
Win rate
28.9%
28.0%
Draw rate
28.9%
30.0%
Loss rate
42.1%
66.0%
Over 1.5 rate
65.8%
38.0%
Over 2.5 rate
44.7%
18.0%
Over 3.5 rate
28.9%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
19
1.88
PPG
1.05
54.2%
Win rate
26.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
26.3%
20.8%
Loss rate
47.4%
70.8%
Over 1.5 rate
68.4%
45.8%
Over 2.5 rate
52.6%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
36.8%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
24
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.18
Goals for per game
1.08
66.0%
Scoring rate
73.7%
40.0%
BTTS rate
47.4%
1.54
Goals for per game
0.95
75.0%
Scoring rate
73.7%
45.8%
BTTS rate
52.6%
50
History Matches
38
1.18
Goals Mean
1.08
1.18
Goals Std
0.93
66.0%
Scored 1+ rate
73.7%
36.0%
Scored 2+ rate
23.7%
10.0%
Scored 3+ rate
7.9%
1.54
Venue Goals Mean
0.95
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.04
Goals against per game
1.42
62.0%
Conceding rate
63.2%
0.79
Goals against per game
1.68
58.3%
Conceding rate
68.4%
50
History Matches
38
1.04
Conceded Mean
1.42
1.23
Conceded Std
1.48
24.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.1%
8.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.7%
0.79
Venue Conceded Mean
1.68
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
38.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
34.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
38.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
34.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
38.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
38
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
1.89
Goal Difference Std
1.72
1.51
Stability score
1.52
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
38
12
Lead Matches
11
91.7%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.88
13
Trailing Matches
12
38.5%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
23.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
38
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
0.61
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
98.94
Rest days
111.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
40
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.24
9
Long Rest History Matches
6
1.56
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.17
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.02
Portability PPG Std
—
0.05
Portability PPG Range
—
95.58
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
38
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO53.14
PPG0.38
GF0.10
GA-0.38
PPG0.82
PPG0.20
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate1.2%
Failed-to-score rate7.7%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate10.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches12
Goals Mean0.10
Goals Std0.25
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate12.3%
Scored 3+ rate2.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.59
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.17
History Matches12
Conceded Mean-0.38
Conceded Std-0.25
Clean-sheet rate1.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.18
Conceded 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Conceded Mean-0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.37
History Matches12
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.17
Stability score0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.31
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate9.8%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate21.8%
Trailing Win Rate23.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.30
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-12.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.26
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.39
Current Team ELO53.14
Current Opponent ELO-53.14
Current ELO Difference106.3
Expected score0.15
History Matches12
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.58
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Cittadella Vis Modena

L
Crema2–1Cittadella Vis Modena1 Nov · away
Pick: Crema 36% · hit
W
Cittadella Vis Modena2–1Pistoiese25 Oct · home
Pick: Pistoiese 43% · missed
D
Oltrepò0–0Cittadella Vis Modena18 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 35% · hit
L
Sasso Marconi Zola1–0Cittadella Vis Modena7 Oct · away
Pick: Cittadella Vis Modena 43% · missed
W
Pontedera0–3Cittadella Vis Modena4 Oct · away
Pick: Pontedera 52% · missed

Pavia

W
Pavia1–0Pro Patria1 Nov · home
Pick: Pavia 37% · hit
W
Pavia3–1USD Casatese25 Oct · home
Pick: USD Casatese 43% · missed
L
Pistoiese1–0Pavia18 Oct · away
Pick: Pistoiese 68% · hit
L
Pavia1–3Sant'Angelo7 Oct · home
Pick: Sant'Angelo 36% · hit
L
Correggese2–1Pavia4 Oct · away
Pick: Correggese 38% · hit

About this match

Cittadella Vis Modena and Pavia meet in Serie D - Girone D on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Cittadella Vis Modena win 52.6%, draw 24.9%, Pavia win 22.5%. The pick is Cittadella Vis Modena win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.0%. Both teams to score: 47.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.