ScoreProb
Jupiler Pro League Belgium Round 11 2026

St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem

St. Truiden Home · Elo 1,614
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Zulte Waregem Away · Elo 1,596
Daio Wasabi Stayen, Sint-Truiden Referee: A. Letellier Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: St. Truiden win
St. Truiden winPick
37.6%
Draw
24.8%
Zulte Waregem win
37.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.0%
No42.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.7%
Under 2.544.3%

How much we know

St. Truiden history71 matches
Zulte Waregem history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 18:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why St. Truiden are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,614 against 1,596. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.70 goals a game over 71 matches for St. Truiden, against 1.78 over 64 for Zulte Waregem.

  • Defences are close

    St. Truiden concede 1.23 a game, Zulte Waregem 1.28.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    62% of St. Truiden matches, against 59% for Zulte Waregem. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
St. Truiden
Zulte Waregem
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1614.3
ELO
1596.2
71
ELO · Matches
64
1614.3
Current Team ELO
1596.2
1596.2
Current Opponent ELO
1614.3
18.15
Current ELO Difference
-18.15
0.53
Expected score
0.47
71
History Matches
64
0.06
Residual Mean
0.07
54.69
Overperformance
55.54
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.37
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.20
1.00
Goals for per game
2.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
2.40
2.20
Goals for per game
2.30
1.00
Goals against per game
1.10
60.0%
Win rate
70.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.19
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
2.44
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.25
Overall performance9 signals
90
71
Matches
64
1.80
PPG
1.58
54.9%
Win rate
43.8%
15.5%
Draw rate
26.6%
29.6%
Loss rate
29.7%
80.3%
Over 1.5 rate
81.3%
62.0%
Over 2.5 rate
59.4%
31.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.6%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
33
2.07
PPG
1.30
64.3%
Win rate
33.3%
14.3%
Draw rate
30.3%
21.4%
Loss rate
36.4%
82.1%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
60.7%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
42.4%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
28
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.70
Goals for per game
1.78
83.1%
Scoring rate
78.1%
57.7%
BTTS rate
60.9%
1.68
Goals for per game
1.70
89.3%
Scoring rate
72.7%
57.1%
BTTS rate
60.6%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
100.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
71
History Matches
64
1.70
Goals Mean
1.78
1.27
Goals Std
1.42
83.1%
Scored 1+ rate
78.1%
50.7%
Scored 2+ rate
56.3%
23.9%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
1.68
Venue Goals Mean
1.70
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.23
Goals against per game
1.28
73.2%
Conceding rate
73.4%
1.18
Goals against per game
1.39
67.9%
Conceding rate
69.7%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
33.3%
71
History Matches
64
1.23
Conceded Mean
1.28
0.98
Conceded Std
1.10
36.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.9%
12.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.1%
1.18
Venue Conceded Mean
1.39
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.6%
16.9%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
30.3%
10.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.6%
16.9%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
30.3%
10.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
71
History Matches
64
0.89
Result entropy
0.98
1.74
Goal Difference Std
1.82
10.95
Stability score
2.21
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
69
Eligible Matches
61
26
Lead Matches
23
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
73.9%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.80
17
Trailing Matches
16
41.2%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
17.6%
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
69
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.78
First Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
85.98
Rest days
78.18
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.57
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
35
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.86
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.65
28
Long Rest History Matches
30
1.61
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.53
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
2.33
0.0%
Win rate
66.7%
100.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
2
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
2.33
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.67
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.40
1.19
Portability PPG Range
1.00
53.23
Portability Score
55.86
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
71
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO18.15
PPG0.22
GF-0.08
GA-0.06
PPG-1.33
PPG0.77
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate0.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate1.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches7
Goals Mean-0.08
Goals Std-0.15
Scored 1+ rate5.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean-0.02
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.59
History Matches7
Conceded Mean-0.06
Conceded Std-0.11
Clean-sheet rate0.2%
Conceded 2+ rate0.7%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.22
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.15
History Matches7
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.08
Stability score8.74
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.31
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.19
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate10.7%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.67
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.04
Portability PPG Range0.19
Portability Score-2.64
Rest days7.80
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match1.07
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.21
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.07
Current Team ELO18.15
Current Opponent ELO-18.15
Current ELO Difference36.29
Expected score0.05
History Matches7
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.84
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.29

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

St. Truiden

L
St. Truiden1–2OH Leuven1 Nov · home
Pick: St. Truiden 62% · missed
L
Club Brugge KV3–2St. Truiden25 Oct · away
Pick: Club Brugge KV 69% · hit
W
FC Midtjylland0–1St. Truiden22 Oct · away
Pick: FC Midtjylland 62% · missed
W
St. Truiden4–1Lommel United18 Oct · home
Pick: St. Truiden 52% · hit
W
St. Truiden2–0Saburtalo15 Oct · home
Pick: Saburtalo 42% · missed

Zulte Waregem

L
Zulte Waregem2–4Club Brugge KV30 Oct · home
Pick: Club Brugge KV 50% · hit
L
RAAL La Louvière3–0Zulte Waregem24 Oct · away
Pick: Zulte Waregem 48% · missed
W
Zulte Waregem3–0Seraing United17 Oct · home
Pick: Zulte Waregem 57% · hit
D
KVC Westerlo2–2Zulte Waregem30 Aug · away
Pick: Zulte Waregem 52% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem meet in Jupiler Pro League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 18:15 UTC. The match is played at Daio Wasabi Stayen, Sint-Truiden. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: St. Truiden win 37.6%, draw 24.8%, Zulte Waregem win 37.6%. The pick is St. Truiden win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.7%. Both teams to score: 58.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.