ScoreProb
Jupiler Pro League Belgium Round 11 2026

Union St. Gilloise vs Genk

Union St. Gilloise Home · Elo 1,695
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Genk Away · Elo 1,585
Stade Joseph Marien, Brussels Referee: B. Van Driessche Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Union St. Gilloise win
Union St. Gilloise winPick
59.2%
Draw
18.7%
Genk win
22.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.6%
No47.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.2%
Under 2.540.8%

How much we know

Union St. Gilloise history87 matches
Genk history90 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 17:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Union St. Gilloise are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Union St. Gilloise are rated 110 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,695 against 1,585. On rating alone Union St. Gilloise would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Union St. Gilloise score more

    1.86 goals a game over 87 matches for Union St. Gilloise, against 1.53 over 90 for Genk.

  • Union St. Gilloise concede fewer

    Union St. Gilloise concede 0.90 a game, Genk 1.33.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Union St. Gilloise matches, against 57% for Genk. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Union St. Gilloise
Genk
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1694.8
ELO
1584.6
87
ELO · Matches
90
1694.8
Current Team ELO
1584.6
1584.6
Current Opponent ELO
1694.8
110.2
Current ELO Difference
-110.2
0.65
Expected score
0.35
87
History Matches
90
0.11
Residual Mean
0.05
58.75
Overperformance
53.76
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.00
2.20
Goals for per game
2.60
1.40
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.30
3.10
Goals for per game
1.80
1.50
Goals against per game
2.40
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
3.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.54
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
2.06
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.97
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.96
Overall performance9 signals
90
87
Matches
90
2.05
PPG
1.59
60.9%
Win rate
44.4%
21.8%
Draw rate
25.6%
17.2%
Loss rate
30.0%
75.9%
Over 1.5 rate
76.7%
51.7%
Over 2.5 rate
56.7%
29.9%
Over 3.5 rate
23.3%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
Venue performance10 signals
100
43
Matches
45
2.30
PPG
1.56
72.1%
Win rate
44.4%
14.0%
Draw rate
22.2%
14.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
79.1%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
55.8%
Over 2.5 rate
62.2%
30.2%
Over 3.5 rate
31.1%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
43
History Matches
45
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.86
Goals for per game
1.53
81.6%
Scoring rate
77.8%
46.0%
BTTS rate
62.2%
2.02
Goals for per game
1.64
83.7%
Scoring rate
77.8%
41.9%
BTTS rate
64.4%
2.50
Goals for per game
2.67
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
87
History Matches
90
1.86
Goals Mean
1.53
1.47
Goals Std
1.28
81.6%
Scored 1+ rate
77.8%
54.0%
Scored 2+ rate
43.3%
28.7%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
2.02
Venue Goals Mean
1.64
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.90
Goals against per game
1.33
55.2%
Conceding rate
77.8%
0.79
Goals against per game
1.56
51.2%
Conceding rate
82.2%
0.50
Goals against per game
2.67
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
87
History Matches
90
0.90
Conceded Mean
1.33
1.21
Conceded Std
1.20
17.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.1%
8.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.3%
0.79
Venue Conceded Mean
1.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
44.8%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
18.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
48.8%
Clean-sheet rate
17.8%
16.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
44.8%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
18.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
48.8%
Clean-sheet rate
17.8%
16.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
44.8%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
87
History Matches
90
0.85
Result entropy
0.97
2.01
Goal Difference Std
1.59
14.69
Stability score
2.58
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
87
Eligible Matches
90
38
Lead Matches
28
94.7%
Lead Win Rate
78.6%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.83
13
Trailing Matches
23
30.8%
Non-loss rate
13.0%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
4.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
87
Halftime Coverage Matches
90
0.87
First Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
0.99
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.52
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
85.15
Rest days
77.95
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
18
1.78
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
57
Normal Rest History Matches
54
1.93
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.54
20
Long Rest History Matches
17
2.45
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.24
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
1.33
50.0%
Win rate
33.3%
50.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.82
2
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.33
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
11
Competition Season Count
8
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.62
Portability PPG Std
0.17
1.56
Portability PPG Range
0.45
44.48
Portability Score
74.10
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
87
Clean History Matches
90
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO110.2
PPG0.46
GF0.33
GA-0.44
PPG0.67
PPG0.75
PPG-0.60
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate22.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate31.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-3
Goals Mean0.33
Goals Std0.19
Scored 1+ rate3.8%
Scored 2+ rate10.7%
Scored 3+ rate8.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.38
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.38
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.44
Conceded Std0.01
Clean-sheet rate22.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.76
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.86
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.12
Goal Difference Std0.42
Stability score12.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.01
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate16.2%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches-10
Non-loss rate17.7%
Trailing Win Rate3.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.45
Portability PPG Range1.10
Portability Score-29.62
Rest days7.20
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-9
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.22
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.39
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match1.21
Current Team ELO110.2
Current Opponent ELO-110.2
Current ELO Difference220.5
Expected score0.31
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.99
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Union St. Gilloise

W
SK Beveren1–2Union St. Gilloise31 Oct · away
Pick: Union St. Gilloise 60% · hit
W
Union St. Gilloise5–2Cercle Brugge25 Oct · home
Pick: Union St. Gilloise 71% · hit
W
Union St. Gilloise4–0Hapoel Beer Sheva22 Oct · home
Pick: Union St. Gilloise 46% · hit
W
Union St. Gilloise3–0Nijlen18 Oct · home
Pick: Union St. Gilloise 75% · hit
D
Union St. Gilloise1–1Real Sociedad15 Oct · home
Pick: Union St. Gilloise 56% · missed

Genk

L
KV Mechelen1–0Genk31 Oct · away
Pick: Genk 45% · missed
W
Genk2–1Standard Liege25 Oct · home
Pick: Genk 48% · hit
W
Excelsior Virton0–2Genk17 Oct · away
Pick: Genk 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Union St. Gilloise and Genk meet in Jupiler Pro League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:30 UTC. The match is played at Stade Joseph Marien, Brussels. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Union St. Gilloise win 59.2%, draw 18.7%, Genk win 22.1%. The pick is Union St. Gilloise win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.2%. Both teams to score: 52.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.