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Primera División Uruguay Round 14 2026

Club Nacional vs Albion FC

Club Nacional Home · Elo 1,564
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Albion FC Away · Elo 1,527
Gran Parque Central, Montevideo Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Club Nacional win
Club Nacional winPick
46.0%
Draw
28.9%
Albion FC win
25.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.3%
No49.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.2%
Under 2.555.8%

How much we know

Club Nacional history66 matches
Albion FC history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 14 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 23:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.0%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Club Nacional are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Club Nacional are rated 37 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,564 against 1,527. On rating alone Club Nacional would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Club Nacional score more

    1.56 goals a game over 66 matches for Club Nacional, against 1.20 over 54 for Albion FC.

  • Albion FC concede fewer

    Club Nacional concede 1.15 a game, Albion FC 0.83.

  • Club Nacional games more often go over 2.5 goals

    62% of Club Nacional matches, against 41% for Albion FC. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Club Nacional
Albion FC@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1563.8
ELO
1526.7
66
ELO · Matches
54
1563.8
Current Team ELO
1526.7
1526.7
Current Opponent ELO
1563.8
37.16
Current ELO Difference
-37.16
0.55
Expected score
0.45
66
History Matches
54
0.04
Residual Mean
0.01
53.29
Overperformance
50.77
-0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.35
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
0.60
0.90
Goals for per game
0.90
1.50
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
10.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.67
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
54
1.74
PPG
1.67
48.5%
Win rate
46.3%
28.8%
Draw rate
27.8%
22.7%
Loss rate
25.9%
74.2%
Over 1.5 rate
55.6%
62.1%
Over 2.5 rate
40.7%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
14.8%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.27
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
30
1.94
PPG
1.63
56.3%
Win rate
43.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
18.8%
Loss rate
23.3%
68.8%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
56.3%
Over 2.5 rate
30.0%
21.9%
Over 3.5 rate
6.7%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.14
32
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.56
Goals for per game
1.20
74.2%
Scoring rate
72.2%
54.5%
BTTS rate
40.7%
1.63
Goals for per game
1.03
81.3%
Scoring rate
70.0%
53.1%
BTTS rate
36.7%
1.29
Goals for per game
1.18
82.4%
Scoring rate
77.3%
58.8%
BTTS rate
59.1%
66
History Matches
54
1.56
Goals Mean
1.20
1.30
Goals Std
1.01
74.2%
Scored 1+ rate
72.2%
48.5%
Scored 2+ rate
35.2%
22.7%
Scored 3+ rate
11.1%
1.63
Venue Goals Mean
1.03
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.15
Goals against per game
0.83
65.2%
Conceding rate
55.6%
0.91
Goals against per game
0.70
59.4%
Conceding rate
53.3%
1.41
Goals against per game
1.18
70.6%
Conceding rate
72.7%
66
History Matches
54
1.15
Conceded Mean
0.83
1.12
Conceded Std
0.88
31.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.1%
15.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.7%
0.91
Venue Conceded Mean
0.70
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
44.4%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
40.6%
Clean-sheet rate
46.7%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
44.4%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
40.6%
Clean-sheet rate
46.7%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
44.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
54
0.95
Result entropy
0.97
1.70
Goal Difference Std
1.27
4.77
Stability score
3.30
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
54
20
Lead Matches
21
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
90.5%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.94
12
Trailing Matches
11
41.7%
Non-loss rate
45.5%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.86
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.06
Rest days
85.19
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
0
2.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
37
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.36
24
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.96
Competition & season17 signals
170
17
Matches
22
1.47
PPG
1.27
47.1%
Win rate
31.8%
5.9%
Draw rate
31.8%
47.1%
Loss rate
36.4%
76.5%
Over 1.5 rate
63.6%
70.6%
Over 2.5 rate
54.5%
17.6%
Over 3.5 rate
22.7%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.09
17
Current Competition Matches
22
1.47
Current Competition PPG
1.27
-0.12
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
8
Competition Season Count
3
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.42
Portability PPG Std
0.33
1.35
Portability PPG Range
0.66
54.37
Portability Score
60.22
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO37.16
PPG0.08
GF0.36
GA0.32
PPG0.20
PPG0.30
PPG1.60
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches12
Goals Mean0.36
Goals Std0.30
Scored 1+ rate2.0%
Scored 2+ rate13.3%
Scored 3+ rate11.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.59
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches12
Conceded Mean0.32
Conceded Std0.24
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate7.7%
Conceded 3+ rate11.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.22
History Matches12
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.43
Stability score1.47
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.89
Eligible Matches12
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate15.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches12
First Half Goals For Mean0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Current Competition Matches-5
Current Competition PPG0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.12
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count4
Portability PPG Std0.09
Portability PPG Range0.69
Portability Score-5.85
Rest days-2.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.32
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Current Team ELO37.16
Current Opponent ELO-37.16
Current ELO Difference74.32
Expected score0.11
History Matches12
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.53
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Club Nacional

W
Ferro Carril1–2Club Nacional5 Nov · away
Pick: Club Nacional 36% · hit
W
Danubio1–2Club Nacional1 Nov · away
Pick: Club Nacional 38% · hit
L
Club Nacional0–1Liverpool Montevideo25 Oct · home
Pick: Club Nacional 45% · missed
W
Club Nacional3–2Deportivo Maldonado19 Oct · home
Pick: Club Nacional 43% · hit
W
Club Nacional3–0Rentistas15 Oct · home
Pick: Club Nacional 60% · hit

Albion FC

D
Albion FC0–0Deportivo Maldonado2 Nov · home
Pick: Deportivo Maldonado 36% · missed
W
Central Espanol1–3Albion FC24 Oct · away
Pick: Central Espanol 43% · missed
W
Albion FC2–1Atletico Torque18 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico Torque 43% · missed
L
Deportivo Maldonado4–1Albion FC15 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo Maldonado 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Club Nacional and Albion FC meet in Primera División on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 23:00 UTC. The match is played at Gran Parque Central, Montevideo. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Club Nacional win 46.0%, draw 28.9%, Albion FC win 25.0%. The pick is Club Nacional win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.2%. Both teams to score: 50.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.