ScoreProb
Liga II Romania Round 13 2026

Unirea Slobozia vs CSM Satu Mare

Unirea Slobozia Home · Elo 1,396
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
CSM Satu Mare Away · Elo 1,486
May 1 Stadium, Slobozia Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Unirea Slobozia win
Unirea Slobozia winPick
44.5%
Draw
27.6%
CSM Satu Mare win
27.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.1%
No48.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.9%
Under 2.548.1%

How much we know

Unirea Slobozia history68 matches
CSM Satu Mare history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 0 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 09:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Unirea Slobozia are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • CSM Satu Mare are rated 90 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,486 against 1,396. On rating alone CSM Satu Mare would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • CSM Satu Mare score more

    1.00 goals a game over 68 matches for Unirea Slobozia, against 1.51 over 49 for CSM Satu Mare.

  • Defences are close

    Unirea Slobozia concede 1.38 a game, CSM Satu Mare 1.53.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    46% of Unirea Slobozia matches, against 53% for CSM Satu Mare. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Unirea Slobozia
CSM Satu Mare
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1396.2
ELO
1486.4
68
ELO · Matches
49
1396.2
Current Team ELO
1486.4
1486.4
Current Opponent ELO
1396.2
-90.20
Current ELO Difference
90.20
0.37
Expected score
0.63
68
History Matches
49
-0.08
Residual Mean
-0.03
44.16
Overperformance
48.09
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.40
1.00
Goals for per game
0.20
1.60
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.50
PPG
1.30
0.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.50
10.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.60
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.39
Overall performance9 signals
90
68
Matches
49
0.90
PPG
1.39
22.1%
Win rate
40.8%
23.5%
Draw rate
16.3%
54.4%
Loss rate
42.9%
63.2%
Over 1.5 rate
81.6%
45.6%
Over 2.5 rate
53.1%
20.6%
Over 3.5 rate
36.7%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.53
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
28
0.91
PPG
1.36
24.2%
Win rate
39.3%
18.2%
Draw rate
17.9%
57.6%
Loss rate
42.9%
54.5%
Over 1.5 rate
78.6%
48.5%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
15.2%
Over 3.5 rate
39.3%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.76
33
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.00
Goals for per game
1.51
58.8%
Scoring rate
71.4%
48.5%
BTTS rate
44.9%
0.85
Goals for per game
1.50
48.5%
Scoring rate
67.9%
42.4%
BTTS rate
42.9%
0.50
Goals for per game
0.25
50.0%
Scoring rate
25.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
68
History Matches
49
1.00
Goals Mean
1.51
1.25
Goals Std
1.67
58.8%
Scored 1+ rate
71.4%
23.5%
Scored 2+ rate
42.9%
7.4%
Scored 3+ rate
18.4%
0.85
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.38
Goals against per game
1.53
80.9%
Conceding rate
71.4%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.50
81.8%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.75
Goals against per game
1.25
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
68
History Matches
49
1.38
Conceded Mean
1.53
1.06
Conceded Std
1.43
35.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.8%
19.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.4%
1.33
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
19.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
41.2%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
51.5%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
19.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
41.2%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
51.5%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
19.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
68
History Matches
49
0.91
Result entropy
0.93
1.67
Goal Difference Std
2.53
8.52
Stability score
6.72
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
68
Eligible Matches
48
15
Lead Matches
11
53.3%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.60
Lead Points Retention
1.00
20
Trailing Matches
18
30.0%
Non-loss rate
27.8%
5.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
68
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.46
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.54
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.71
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
5
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
34
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
31
Long Rest History Matches
15
0.84
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.53
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.25
PPG
0.50
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.25
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.31
Portability PPG Std
0.94
0.75
Portability PPG Range
2.50
61.68
Portability Score
34.80
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
68
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-90.20
PPG-0.49
GF-0.51
GA-0.15
PPG-0.25
PPG-0.45
PPG0.20
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches19
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate12.6%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate19.4%
History Matches19
Goals Mean-0.51
Goals Std-0.42
Scored 1+ rate-0.13
Scored 2+ rate-0.19
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean-0.65
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.23
History Matches19
Conceded Mean-0.15
Conceded Std-0.37
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.44
History Matches19
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.86
Stability score1.80
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.79
Eligible Matches20
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.47
Lead Points Retention-0.40
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate2.2%
Trailing Win Rate-0.12
Halftime Coverage Matches20
First Half Goals For Mean-0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.35
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.25
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.63
Portability PPG Range-1.75
Portability Score26.88
Rest days-3.33
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Long Rest History Matches16
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.69
Current Team ELO-90.20
Current Opponent ELO90.20
Current ELO Difference-180.4
Expected score-0.25
History Matches19
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.93
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Unirea Slobozia

W
ASA Targu Mures0–1Unirea Slobozia31 Oct · away
Pick: ASA Targu Mures 52% · missed
D
Unirea Slobozia2–2Concordia24 Oct · home
Pick: Concordia 47% · missed
L
Slatina1–0Unirea Slobozia17 Oct · away
Pick: Slatina 73% · hit
L
CS Afumati2–1Unirea Slobozia29 Aug · away
Pick: CS Afumati 47% · hit
L
Unirea Slobozia1–2Metaloglobus25 Aug · home
Pick: Metaloglobus 44% · hit

CSM Satu Mare

W
CSM Satu Mare2–0Viitorul Şelimbăr31 Oct · home
Pick: CSM Satu Mare 45% · hit
L
Chindia Targoviste3–2CSM Satu Mare25 Oct · away
Pick: Chindia Targoviste 64% · hit
D
CSM Satu Mare0–0Metalul Buzău17 Oct · home
Pick: Metalul Buzău 48% · missed
L
Gloria Bistriţa1–0CSM Satu Mare29 Aug · away
Pick: Gloria Bistriţa 61% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Unirea Slobozia and CSM Satu Mare meet in Liga II on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 09:00 UTC. The match is played at May 1 Stadium, Slobozia. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Unirea Slobozia win 44.5%, draw 27.6%, CSM Satu Mare win 27.9%. The pick is Unirea Slobozia win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.9%. Both teams to score: 51.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.